The supply chain sitch is bad news for procrastinators

October 13, 2021 • Issue #115

Hi y’all —

Some may call me a chronic procrastinator. I prefer “deadline-driven.”

Sure, I don’t pack for vacation until hours before my plane leaves. I don’t do my laundry until I’m wearing my absolute last pair of clean underwear. Sometimes I don’t even finish Dollar Scholar until minutes before it goes out.

I think it’s a chemical thing — my brain simply doesn’t kick into high drive until it knows we’re down to the wire. I can spend all week struggling to cobble together 100 coherent words of a feature story, but the day it’s due I can’t seem to type fast enough. It’s a flawed, and extremely stressful, way to go through life, but I do my best work under pressure.

That’s why I’ve been largely disregarding the chatter lately about supply chain disruptions and how they’re going to ruin Christmas or whatever. I always put off my holiday shopping ‘til the last minute; why should this year be any different? I haven’t even come up with a Halloween costume yet! 

It’s literally October. Do I actually need to start my holiday shopping now?

I called Pat Penfield, a supply chain management professor at Syracuse University, to find out what’s going on. Penfield told me the United States is experiencing a perfect storm of factors leading to major delays. As a result, the whole system is “stressed out.”

When the pandemic hit, it not only shut down factories in countries the U.S. heavily relies on for goods — especially China, Mexico and Canada — but it also changed demand patterns. Orders moved online en masse, but retailers weren’t necessarily prepared for the shift.

At the same time, severe winter weather in Texas this past February made 75% of the nation’s ethylene unavailable, restricting the reply of what’s been called “the world’s most important chemical” because it’s so widely used in making plastics, toys, packaging, clothing, metals and more. Ransomware attacks have also crippled operations — the Colonial Pipeline, which is responsible for roughly half of the East Coast's diesel, petroleum and jet fuel, had to briefly shut down after an incident in May. 

Even the items that were produced aren’t reaching stores due to the ongoing labor shortage.

“We have congestion throughout the whole transportation supply chain. There’s over 70 ships waiting to be unloaded” in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, Penfield says. “In addition, there’s massive amounts of [containers] sitting there waiting to be taken to a distribution center. There aren’t enough truck drivers to move that inventory out. The warehouse space is packed. The rail yards and trains are all full.”

The backlog also coincides with another trend: Half of people are hoping to spend more on gifts this year because the COVID-19 crisis curtailed their 2020 celebrations, according to an Affirm survey. Less inventory plus higher demand equals major shortages.

“Waiting until December to do your holiday shopping this year is probably going to pose some problems,” says Julie Ramhold, a consumer analyst with DealNews.com.

It’s still unclear how this is going to impact Black Friday and other holiday sales, but in general I shouldn’t hold out hope for lower prices. That’s especially true for toys, books and video game consoles. If there’s a must-have item in one of those categories on my list, it might be smarter to grab it now.

“We don’t even know what the stock is going to look like when [Black Friday] rolls around. Even if they are on the shelves, we’re not expecting discounts because they’re in such high demand,” Ramhold says.

Stores aren’t ignoring the issue. Katherine Cullen, senior director of industry and consumer insights for the National Retail Federation, told me that companies are flying products in, using less-busy ports and rolling out holiday discounts earlier than normal.

Amazon and Target, in particular, have already begun their sales. To navigate this, Ramhold recommended I do some homework. Even if I’m not ready to actually place any orders, I should make a list of the stuff I’m eyeing. I should research prices, decide on what I’d like to pay and put a fine point on what I’m willing to pay.

That way, when I do come across an item in the next few weeks, I don’t have to waste time deliberating. I can instantly pull up my list and make a well-informed decision.

Otherwise, Ramhold said my options are going to be limited.

“If you don’t shop early, you're probably going to have to go about doing things the old fashioned way — i.e., hitting stores in December to see what’s left, hitting local makers or relying on digital gift cards, because those are the only things that will be guaranteed to be there for the holidays,” she adds.

THE BOTTOM LINE

(but please don't tell me you scrolled past all of my hard work)

The headlines are legit. Chaos at different points in the supply chain is going to lead to severe shortages heading into the holidays, so I do actually need to begin my Christmas shopping ASAP.

As retailers try to head off these issues, I should make a list now and snatch stuff when I see it available. Cullen says it can’t hurt to get a head start — or even use a store’s mobile app to check on stock and shipping times.

“What we've seen throughout the pandemic is added transparency from retailers about what's available, where it's available, and how long it might take to get to you,” Cullen says. “They’re giving you those tools so you can adjust your plans accordingly.”

VIA GIPHY

RECEIPT OF THE WEEK

check out this wild celebrity purchase

VIA INSTAGRAM

Andrew Lloyd Webber, who composed CATS, recently revealed he hated the 2019 version of CATS so much that he went out and bought a dog. Lloyd Webber told Variety he purchased a “little Havanese puppy,” which run about $1,100 and come with first-year expenses of about $2,800, according to PetBudget.com. The best part is that Lloyd Webber apparently asked an airline if he could bring the dog as an emotional support animal. “The airline wrote back and said, 'Can you prove that you really need him?' And I said, 'Yes, just see what Hollywood did to my musical.’”

INTERNET GOLD

five things I'm loving online right now

1	The Cross Hotel in Kyoto, Japan, recently debuted its salamander room: a suite decked out with more than 40 huge paintings of salamanders on the walls, mirrors, windows, ceiling and bedding. Every stay in the room, which costs about $340 a night, comes with a free salamander pillow and a ticket to the nearby Kyoto Aquarium. That way, you can get a good night’s sleep nestled among your slimy friends, then go see them IRL.
2	Little guys appreciation thread.
3	I can’t get enough of the vet’s office in England that shares an inpatient of the day, complete with a score on the brave-o-meter, on its Facebook page. Recent winners include Max, a miniature schnauzer undergoing chemo; Barney, a dachshund with a stomachache; and Carlton, a rabbit who needed his teeth cleaned. All very good boys, all very brave.
4	I loved this story on Rest of World that dives into what happened to India’s (many) TikTok influencers when the country banned the app last year, effectively forcing them all to move to Instagram Reels. TikTok “democratized the creator economy and brought money to marginalized groups,” according to one source, but Reels’ “aesthetics of curation were defined very early on by people [with resources.” Now the TikTokers are struggling to keep up.
5	Uh, guys? It seems Gen Z has discovered bumper stickers.

401(K)9 CONTRIBUTION

send me cute pictures of your pets, please

VIA GINO GENCO

Meet Sully, a very good boy who has already started his pawliday shopping.

But seriously. What am I going to be for Halloween?

See you next week.
 

 
P.S. How early do you start your holiday shopping? Would you sleep in a hotel room full of salamanders? Did you think CATS (2019) was bad? Send shopping lists to julia.glum@money.com or tweet @SuperJulia on Twitter.

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