Forbes - I guess there's a Trump SPAC

Kevin Dowd
Staff Writer
October 21, 2021
Big Things
Donald Trump waves hello to the world of SPACs. Getty Images
1. Here comes a Trump SPAC
I feel like a decade straight of pumping Twitter into my brain for hours a day has left me a pretty jaded news consumer, mostly immune to amazement. So it's good to know that a headline can still come across the ol' news feed that makes me stop and stare off into the distance for a while, wondering whether the time is right to move to Alaska and become a grizzly man. Anyway: This was one of those headlines.

Donald Trump is starting his long-rumored digital media venture, and he's going to take it public by merging the nascent venture with a SPAC. The company, called Trump Media & Technology Group, plans to launch a social network early next year called Truth Social that will serve as the latest effort to establish a more far-right-friendly rival to Twitter, Facebook and other major social networks that have grown more aggressive about policing their platforms in the wake of the Jan. 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol. We'll see whether this is a more serious effort than Trump's short-lived blog.

At first glance, it appears to be. TMTG says the merger with
Digital World Acquisition Corp. will result in up to $293 million in cash proceeds, an $875 million enterprise valuation and a potential cumulative valuation of $1.7 billion, dependent on potential earnouts. It will be interesting to see, though, whether (and how much) those numbers change in the months to come. Based on the sparse details in an accompanying slide deck, it appears that TMTG is still a completely hypothetical venture, with no existing platform and no financials to speak of. No PIPE deal was announced, which indicates that no major investors have yet agreed to help fund the effort. It would stand to reason that this might be the sort of SPAC deal with a high redemption rate, as existing investors in Digital World may be skeptical about the prospects of such a speculative venture.

Then again, any company with Trump's name on it has the potential to create a frenzy. And so far, that's been the case.
Digital World's stock went crazy on Thursday, at one point nearing $50 per share (more than a 400% increase from Wednesday) and taking the company's market cap to more than $1.5 billion. It's a huge leap, and a sign that retail investors could power TMTG to unexpected heights. Maybe redemptions won't be a problem after all.

It seems likely, though, that it won't be able to maintain those heights without creating some kind of viable product in the not-too-distant future. Whenever it does hit an app store near you, Truth Social might be the most closely watched platform launch in social media history.

Who's behind Digital World? The CEO is
Patrick Orlando, who has launched four separate SPACs, none of which have successfully completed a merger. He's the CEO of an investment firm called Benessere Capital, and he recently spent four years as the CFO at Sucro Sourcing, a sugar trader. Digital World's CFO is Luis Orleans-Braganza, a standing member of Brazil's National Congress and an ally of Jair Bolsonaro. As president, Trump often favored allies from outside the traditional establishment—whether out of preference, or because those from within the traditional establishment often weren't too interested in working with him. That again seems to be the case here.

I have no idea whether TMTG and Truth Social will turn into the next big thing or the next big embarrassing fiasco. Whatever the outcome, I think we can assume it won't be boring.

A political postscript: We also have news this week about a separate potential deal that Trump's successor in the White House,
Joe Biden, would surely be able to get behind: Malarkey Roofing Products is considering a sale that could value the family-owned company at $1.5 billion, per a Bloomberg report. If a deal materializes, it would continue a string of significant M&A in the building products sector during 2021.
Stephen Schwarzman described today's earnings as "the best results in our 36-year history." Getty Images
2. Blackstone's best quarter ever
The stock market is still riding high. Deals are still materializing at record-breaking rates. It remains a very good time to be in the business of private equity.

Blackstone provided the latest demonstration of that fact Thursday, when it released its earnings for the third quarter of the year. The firm recorded distributable earnings of $1.6 billion, a new all-time quarterly high and an increase of 112% from the same period last year. That equates to $1.28 per share, which blew past consensus analyst estimates of 91 cents per share. Blackstone also set a new record for fee-related earnings, with $779 million, up 28% from a year prior.

In several respects, then, the past three months were the best financial stretch at Blackstone since
Stephen Schwarzman co-founded the firm in 1985—validating its ongoing expansion into a do-everything player in the world of alternative investments. And the billionaire buyout baron thinks even better times are ahead.

"I believe we are only at the beginning of a long-term acceleration of growth. Our unique market position today is the outcome of the substantial investment we've made over decades to expand our capabilities," Schwarzman said during an investor call. "We're now experiencing record demand for products in the alternatives area."

The firm continues to inch closer to its stated goal of building up $1 trillion in assets under management by 2026—a target that rival
Apollo Global Management is now also trying to reach. Blackstone claimed $730.7 billion in total AUM at the end of the September, growing from $684 billion at the end of Q2 and $584.4 billion at the end of of Q3 2020.

At that rate, 2026 might be a significant underestimation of when its AUM will top $1 trillion. Blackstone grew its asset base by 25% over the past year. If it does that again over the next 12 months, its AUM will exceed $900 billion.

More than half of that AUM growth has come in the form of perpetual capital. Blackstone now claims $197 billion in permanent assets that don't need to be returned to investors in any set timeframe, up from $115.2 billion at the end of September 2020. This remains a major area of focus for private equity heavyweights, with Apollo leading the way.

It was also an impressive quarter for fund performance. Blackstone's corporate private equity funds appreciated by 9.9% and its opportunistic real estate funds gained 16.2%, compared to a 0.2% rise in the S&P 500. Over the past 12 months, Blackstone's PE funds are now up 49.1% and its real estate funds are up 35.9%. Schwarzman said it was the best 12-month stretch of fund appreciation in the firm's history.

I could keep running through more big numbers, but you get the point. It was a good quarter. And investors took note. Blackstone's shares were up nearly 3%, taking its market cap past $159 billion. The firm's stock is now up roughly 110% since the start of the year.

Every major publicly traded private equity firm has seen its stock price soar in 2021, but none have soared as high as Blackstone.
Adam Neumann is gone, but WeWork has at last fulfilled his dream of going public. Getty Images for WeWork
3. The power of We
It really happened: WeWork is a public company. The would-be co-working colossus that nearly collapsed under the weight of Adam Neumann's hubris began trading on the NYSE today after completing its merger with a SPAC. And investors were into it! Shares of WeWork climbed 13% during their first three hours of action and were still up more than 6% by late afternoon, taking the company's stock price above $11 as of this writing and its market cap to some $8.8 billion.

Is $8.8 billion a lot less than $47 billion, the valuation that
SoftBank rainmaker Masayoshi Son bestowed upon WeWork in the 2019 lead-up to its ill-fated IPO? Yes, yes it is. But $8.8 billion is also a lot more than $0, which at one point seemed like a real possibility for WeWork's eventual worth. Veteran real estate executive Sandeep Mathrani seems to have stabilized and professionalized the company since taking over as CEO in February 2020. WeWork no longer has ambitions of dominating the world. But it is starting to seem more and more likely that it can become a perfectly viable and perfectly boring real estate company.

WeWork went public by merging with
BowX Acquisition Corp., a SPAC led by Vivek Ranadivé, the former CEO of TIBCO Software and the current owner of the Sacramento Kings. The deal added $1.3 billion to the company's coffers, a significant influx given both the capital-intensive nature of WeWork's business and the state of disarray into which the company slid in the latter days of Neumann's reign. We (or at least I) will probably never stop making fun of WeWork. But with every day that goes by as a public company, WeWork can now gladly watch that strange unicorn era recede further and further into the past.
Other Things
• One European transportation company is moving away from the U.S. bus market. And another is rushing in. FlixMobility, a German startup that's raised more than $1 billion in venture funding since 2019, agreed to buy the famed Greyhound Lines brand from the U.K.'s First Group. The deal reportedly has an enterprise value of $46 million and will result in $172 million in cash proceeds for FirstGroup; TechCrunch has more financial details, for the curious. In prior U.S. divestitures, FirstGroup sold three Greyhound bus facilities late last year for £102 million (about $141 million), and in April, it agreed to sell its First Student and First Transit bus networks to private equity firm EQT for $4.6 billion. The company bought Greyhound in 2007 through a take-private buyout worth $3.6 billion.

• Once again,
Twitter is turning to M&A in 2021 to build out its roster of product offerings. The latest move is a deal to acquire Sphere, a London-based startup that operates a group chat app. My immediate takeaway is that there must already be some sort of Twittersphere branding in the works. Twitter has conducted at least a half-dozen acquisitions so far this year, with targets including ad-blocking startup Scroll, newsletter specialist Revue and news-finding platform Brief. Earlier this month, meanwhile, the company agreed to sell its MoPub mobile ad business to AppLovin for $1.05 billion.

• Fast-casual restaurant chain
Portillo's raised $405 million in its IPO today and saw its shares soar another 45% during their first morning of trading, taking the company's market cap north of $2 billion. Owned by Berkshire Partners since 2014, Portillo's priced its listing at $20 per share, the top end of its anticipated range. The purveyor of hot dogs, sausages and other Chicago-style street food logged $455.5 million in 2020 revenue, down 5% from the year prior, but it bounced back from the worst of the pandemic with $258 million in revenue during the first half of 2021. About 62% of its sales so far this year have come via drive thru, compared to just 41% in 2019.

• It was a more disappointing debut day for
Vita Coco, a seller of coconut water. The New York-based company priced its listing at $15 per share, well below its expected range of $18 to $21, and its shares slumped even more as the day progressed, falling to $14.50 by late afternoon. The company and its investors (including China's Reignwood Group and Belgium's Verlinvest) raised $172.5 million in the IPO, which valued Vita Coco at $832 million.

• And there will be no debut day at all (at least not any time soon) for
Winc, a third company in the food and beverage sector that was charting a path to the public market. The operator of a subscription wine service postponed an IPO today that was in line to raise some $75 million, joining a growing list of companies that have walked away from planned listings in recent weeks as a previously sterling stock market has begun to waver. Winc has raised about $83 million in prior venture capital and was valued at $195 million with a funding round in June, with backers including Bessemer Venture Partners and Crosscut Ventures, according to PitchBook.

KKR is increasing its footprint at one of New York City's tallest skyscrapers. The firm agreed to buy a controlling stake in the observation deck that juts out from the 100th floor of 30 Hudson Yards, the 103-story colossus that opened for business in 2019 on Manhattan's West Side, with Bloomberg reporting a price north of $500 million. KKR is already one of the biggest tenants at the building, where its corporate headquarters occupy 10 floors and more than 340,000 square feet. The observation deck, which is called Edge and is open to the public, will continue to be managed by the larger Hudson Yards development.

• The first hostile takeover bid in the history of Japanese banking could be coming soon.
Shinsei Bank said today that it will reject an unsolicited acquisition offer worth some $1.1 billion from SBI Holdings, a Japanese financial services group, which could set the table for SBI to take its offer directly to Shinsei shareholders. Shinsei called for SBI to increase its current offer of 2,000 yen per share and to increase the number of shares it is trying to buy, but SBI indicated that it has no plans to do so. The company is currently trying to grow its stake in Shinsei to 48%, which would give it effective control of the bank but remain below the 50% threshold that would require approval from Japanese regulators. A meeting of Shinsei shareholders is scheduled for Nov. 25.

• After the collapse of previous talks with a blank-check vehicle backed by
Chamath Palihapitiya, the owner of SoulCycle has set its sights on a different SPAC. Equinox is in talks to go public by combining with Ares Acquisition Corp., per a Bloomberg report, a move that would come as Equinox tries to rev its business back up after in-person fitness classes of all kinds were disrupted by the pandemic. Other companies in the space have been striking deals lately, too, led by Mindbody's agreement to acquire ClassPass in a deal reportedly worth more than $1 billion. This spring, Equinox was said to be negotiating a potential merger with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. VI that could have resulted in a $7.5 billion valuation. The Ares Management-sponsored SPAC with which Equinox is now said to be negotiating raised $1 billion in its IPO in February.

• The race to buy the
Equans services unit from French utility giant Engie continues to come into focus. Bain Capital plans to partner with French holding company Fimalac on a joint bid for the business, according to local newspaper Les Echoes, with Bain set to hold a majority stake if its offer is successful. The two could also bring on Bpifrance as a smaller co-investor, the report said. Engie is currently auctioning off Equans, which installs and maintains electrical equipment, telecom equipment and other utility services, reportedly with hopes of valuing the unit at up to €6 billion (about $7 billion). French industrial conglomerates Bouygues and Eiffage are believed to be the other two primary bidders, while would-be private equity suitors including Apollo Global Management and CVC Capital Partners have fallen by the wayside.

The Carlyle Group has enlisted advisers to coordinate a sale process for Precoat Metals, with hopes of fetching some $1.5 billion for the maker of metal coatings, according to Bloomberg. Precoat is one of the two main units of Sequa, a conglomerate that Carlyle acquired for $2.7 billion in a take-private buyout in 2007. Its other primary subsidiary, Chromalloy, provides aftermarket repair services for jet engines. Precoat's coatings are used in houses, appliances, vehicles and other end-markets.
Things To Read
How does an airline plan out its annual budget in the midst of a pandemic? This year, United Airlines and CEO Scott Kirby took an unprecedented approach. [The Wall Street Journal]

Pulling iron ore from the ground turned Andrew Forrest into one of Australia's richest men. Now, he's gambling his empire on the chance to lead a renewable revolution. [
The New York Times]

The case of the Martha’s Vineyard heiress and the Florida psychic who took her for millions. [
The Boston Globe]

Consolidation has accelerated in the U.S. oil and gas sector so far this year. The FTC, it appears, is trying to slow things down. [
Reuters]

It's been a tough season so far for UNLV's football team. But at least the Rebels have something on the sideline to keep them (and their fans) entertained: A $60,000 custom slot machine that never loses. [
The Athletic]
Kevin Dowd
Staff Writer
I am a staff writer at Forbes. I previously wrote for PitchBook, where I created The Weekend Pitch, a weekly newsletter about the private markets. Before that, I covered high school sports in the Pacific Northwest, and I graduated from the University of Washington with a degree in journalism and creative writing. I live in Seattle, where I read a lot of books and play a lot of golf.
Follow me on Twitter.
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