Forbes - The remarkable recovery of Hertz

Kevin Dowd
Staff Writer
November 7, 2021
Big Things
1. Hertz, don't it?
On the final Monday of October, Hertz said it had placed a $4.2 billion order for 100,000 vehicles from Tesla to add to its rental fleet by the end of 2022. The public response was immediate. Hertz stock soared 10%. Shares of Tesla climbed nearly 13%. The deal was widely seen as a big win for both companies. CNBC described it as a “tipping point” that could usher the rental-car industry into a new “climate change era."

But was there really a deal after all? This week,
Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla hadn’t signed a contract with Hertz. There were fears of chicanery, causing both companies’ share prices to waver.
When you order $4.2 billion worth of cars at once, you can skip the dealership. Getty Images
Before long, though, those fears abated. A Hertz spokesperson publicly confirmed the order and said Tesla deliveries had already begun. The real question, it seems, is whether all 100,000 vehicles will actually arrive in the next 14 months: The Wall Street Journal reported that the two sides are still “hammering out the details” of a specific delivery timeline.

In the end, then, it appears Hertz has indeed lined up a transformational deal. Regardless of any communications snafus, that deal is the latest step in a remarkable recovery for the company—an only-in-the-pandemic story of lockdowns, meme stocks, bankruptcy and car shortages. And now, you can add Musk to the mix.

Founded in 1918 in Chicago, Hertz was for many decades one of the leading players in the U.S. rental-car industry, churning out billions of dollars of revenue each year. Those billions, though, were dependent on the company’s customers traveling. When the pandemic arrived, that travel stopped, and trouble ensued.

By the end of April 2020, Hertz was missing lease payments on its fleet. On May 18,
Kathryn Marinello stepped down as CEO. Four days later, on May 22, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing $18 billion in debt. Shortly after that, famed activist investor Carl Icahn sold his entire 39% stake in Hertz for a mere 72 cents per share, taking a $2 billion loss.

Then, a funny thing happened. Retail investors started flocking to Hertz stock. Some were driven by a belief that the Hertz brand could eventually sell for enough to return some value to equity holders. Some were driven by pure speculation. Whatever the reason, the result was that Hertz shares soared 1,000% in the span of two weeks, climbing from as low as 59 cents per share up to $5.50.

Hertz tried to capitalize. In June, in a highly unusual move, the bankrupt company announced plans to sell as much as $1 billion worth of new shares, while cautioning investors that “the common stock could ultimately be worthless.” It managed to raise $29 million before the SEC intervened. The meme craze began to fade. In October, the NYSE formally delisted Hertz, relegating the company to the realm of penny stocks.

The smart money derided these retail investors who were pumping cash into a bankrupt business. But as it turned out, those retail investors were onto something. Global car shortages (caused in large part by global chip shortages) meant that prices for used cars surged during the second half of 2020; Hertz took advantage by selling off hundreds of thousands of vehicles, nearly a third of its overall fleet. When travel resumed quicker than many expected, those same car shortages meant Hertz and its rivals were able to rent for their remaining inventory for eye-watering rates—more than $300 per day in some cities.

When Hertz began the process of looking for new investment to help bring the company out of bankruptcy, it had no shortage of suitors. A host of private equity firms circled the business, including
Warburg Pincus and Centerbridge Partners. A bidding war developed, and when the dust settled this May, the winners were Knighthead Capital Management and Certares Management, who agreed to furnish Hertz with some $5.9 billion in new capital while slashing $5 billion off its debt load. The deal also called for owners of Hertz equity to receive as much as $8 per share—a shocking win for those retail investors who had rushed to Hertz a year prior, and a demonstration of how the nature of the stock market has changed in the meme-stock era.

Hertz formally emerged from bankruptcy on July 1, and its stock began trading over-the-counter at $22 per share. Soon, it will return to a true stock market: Hertz filed last month for an IPO on the Nasdaq. And now, the company will roll into that public debut backed by a whole lot of buzz—and with a whole lot of new Teslas en route to its network of locations.

At Friday’s close, Hertz stock was trading for $34.39 per share, giving the company a market cap of more than $16 billion. It has been a spectacular rise from the brink of death. When you have that sort of comeback to celebrate, Elon Musk can quibble about delivery timelines all he wants.

And now, onto the rest of our recap of the week...
A Daily Deep Dive Into The World of Big Buyouts, Big Acquisitions, Big IPOs and Big Finance
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2. 'Ello, guvna
It has been barely 13 months since Glenn Youngkin officially left his position as co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, one of the world's biggest private equity firms. It didn't take the 54-year-old long to find his next project.

Youngkin was elected the next governor of Virginia on Tuesday, beating out
Terry McAuliffe in a close-fought and closely watched campaign that was widely seen as an encouraging sign for the GOP heading into next year's midterms. A newcomer to politics, Youngkin will become the first Republican to occupy the governor's mansion since 2014 and only the second Republican elected to lead Virginia in the past 20 years. His election might have sounded crazy back in 2017, when Youngkin was named co-CEO of Carlyle—the sort of job private equity professionals work their whole lives to land. But Youngkin lost out in a power struggle with Kewsong Lee, his joint chief executive, and stepped down last September. You have to admit: Governor isn't a bad backup gig.
3. Caffeinated combinations
Coca-Cola got the week going with a high-energy transaction, agreeing to buy the rest of sports drink brand BodyArmor that it doesn't already own for about $5.6 billion. For Coke, which also owns Powerade, the takeover is the latest attempt to challenge Pepsico and its Gatorade subsidiary for supremacy in the sports drink market. The company first invested in BodyArmor in 2018 and has since built up a 30% holding. The late Kobe Bryant was an early investor in BodyArmor; his stake was valued at $400 million in the sale to Coke. Other pro athletes and pitchmen also own part of BodyArmor, including James Harden, Mike Trout and the recently retired Buster Posey.
For BodyArmor investors like Mike Trout (left), this was a week worth celebrating. Getty Images
We had a caffeine-powered acquirer this week. And we also had a caffeine-powered SPAC target. Black Rifle Coffee Company, which has won fans for its coffee, its support for military veterans and its firearm-themed apparel, said it will to go public by merging with a blank-check vehicle at an enterprise valuation of $1.7 billion. Based in Utah, Black Rifle has raised previous funding from private equity firm Sterling Partners. The company plans to merge with a SPAC sponsored by SilverBox Capital and Engaged Capital.
4. Alternative acquisitions
For the second time in the past two weeks, one of the largest money managers in the U.S. made an acquisition aimed at building out its base of alternative asset offerings. The eternal hunt for yield means investors of all kinds want more exposure to private equity and private credit. And some of Wall Street's biggest names are turning to M&A to give it to them.

Franklin Templeton announced an agreement on Monday to buy Lexington Partners, a private equity secondaries investor, for $1.75 billion. The move came just a few days after T. Rowe Price said it would pay up to $4.2 billion for Oak Hill Advisers, a major private credit investor. Oak Hill helps finance the loans that power the buyout industry. And Lexington specializes in buying secondhand stakes in private equity funds from LPs and other backers, offering liquidity to investors without the need for funds to sell off assets that might still be profitable.
5. Publication regulation
The U.S. Justice Department filed a lawsuit this week to block Penguin Random House from buying Simon & Schuster, the latest example of the Joe Biden administration taking a more stringent approach to antitrust enforcement than its recent predecessors. First announced last year, the deal would see the largest book publisher in the U.S. pay $2.18 billion to buy the No. 4 player in the market. (Macmillan, Hachette and Harper Collins are the other three names that make up the industry's Big Five.) Penguin is owned by German publishing giant Bertelsmann, while Simon & Schuster is currently controlled by ViacomCBS.

The lawsuit is notable for the simple fact that the government is aiming to block the deal. Just as interesting as the what, though, is the why. The DOJ isn't arguing that the merger would lead to higher prices for consumers, but rather that it would be harmful to the authors who drive the publishing industry, representing a shift in the way antitrust policy has typically been applied in the country over the past several decades. "The merger would give Penguin Random House outsized influence over who and what is published, and how much authors are paid for their work," the lawsuit claims.
6. Shale sales
The pace of M&A in the U.S. energy sector may be slowing down after reaching a record-breaking rate earlier this year. But billion-dollar deals are still getting done, as companies seek to add assets that can help them take advantage of an ongoing surge in oil and gas prices.

In one example from this week,
Continental Resources agreed to pay $3.25 billion to buy the drilling rights to 92,000 net acres in the Permian Basin from Pioneer Natural Resources, which has owned the assets for less than a year. Continental shareholders were less than enthused about the move: The company's stock closed this week down about 8%. And in another move, Southwestern Energy struck a $1.85 billion pact to take over Haynesville GEP, a group of assets in Louisiana's Haynesville Shale. Haynesville GEP was formed in 2015 as a joint venture between GeoSouthern and Blackstone.
The sun sets over the Permian Basin. Getty Images
7. For the birds
Stock in Allbirds soared after the shoemaker conducted an IPO on the Nasdaq on Wednesday, joining a series of direct-to-consumer companies that have opted in recent months to join a buoyant stock market. The company's shares climbed some 93% in their first day of trading, and while they slumped about 10% from that point as the week progressed, it was still a fantastic week. Allbirds raised $303 million in the offering, and it's now worth some $3.7 billion, up from $1.7 billion in its final round of private funding.

Another ornithologically inspired company also made waves this week, as
American Eagle signed on to acquire Quiet Logistics for $350 million. This is the apparel retailer's second acquisition of a logistics outfit in the second half of this year, following an August deal for AirTerra, as it aims to gain more control over the supply chains that move its wares around the world. Based in Massachusetts, Quiet Logistics operates eight fulfillment centers that specialize in managing and shipping goods for e-commerce clients.
8. Pharma billions
A strange arrangement between two drugmakers based in the same Swiss city is coming to an end. Novartis struck a pact to sell its stake in Roche back to its rival for $20.7 billion, parting ways with a 33% voting stake that it has owned for nearly 20 years. The stock swap comes as Roche shares have been trading at all-time highs after a pandemic surge. Novartis will book a $14 billion gain on the sale, and there's already speculation that CEO Vas Narasimhan could use some of that capital to build out the company's offerings through M&A.

If that's the case, Novartis would be tapping into a healthcare M&A market that's proven very active so far in 2021. Another potential mega-deal could be looming, as Bloomberg reported this week that diagnostic specialists
Qiagen and BioMerieux are discussing a potential combination. The two companies have a current combined market cap of €23.25 billion (about $26.9 billion), which means that if a deal does materialize, it would be one of the few largest acquisitions in the sector so far this year. AstraZeneca closed a $39 billion takeover of Alexion Pharmaceuticals in July, and Blackstone, The Carlyle Group and Hellman & Friedman teamed up on an agreement to buy Medline Industries for north of $30 billion.
9. EQT's infrastructure aims
Swedish private equity firm EQT closed its biggest infrastructure fund ever this week, bringing in €15.7 billion (about $18.1 billion) for its fifth vehicle in the series. That's a major step up from the €9 billion that EQT raised for its previous infrastructure fund, which closed barely two-and-a-half years ago. More than 60% of the new fund's capital has already been committed across a dozen different deals, including a $5.3 billion take-private buyout of waste-to-energy specialist Covanta that was announced in July.

EQT refilled its coffers in multiple ways this week: by raising a new fund, and by offloading some high-priced assets. The Swedish investor completed the sale of a $6.8 billion portfolio of warehouses, fulfillment centers and other industrial assets across a number of major U.S. cities, comprising more than 70 million square feet. And it also agreed to sell its 90% stake in the
Fenix Marine Services terminal at the Port of Los Angeles for about $2 billion, handing control of the terminal to CMA CGM, a powerhouse in the global shipping industry. In both deals, EQT is trying to capitalize on a recent surge of investor interest for logistics assets, one driven by a rise in e-commerce spending amid the pandemic that many expect to turn into a lasting shift in shopping habits.
Things To Read
The pandemic was already the busiest time in recent memory for Goldman Sachs and other bulge-bracket banks. And then the analysts began to revolt. [Intelligencer]

SoftBank wants to be a powerhouse in the world of venture capital. To retain and attract top talent, though, Masayoshi Son and his $100 billion fund will have to start paying up. [
Bloomberg]

A few thoughts from former senior portfolio manager Dominique Miele on why there are so few women in the world of hedge funds—and on what needs to change. [
Institutional Investor]

The rise of the whaling industry led to a mass slaughter of the world's largest animals. It also destroyed some of the world's richest ecosystems. Now, scientists think they may have the key to bringing those ecosystems back to life. [
The Atlantic]

A look inside the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, an unassuming group of reporters that's made a habit of digging up financial dirt on the world's political and business elite. [
The New Yorker]

The tale of how wine, pizza and a few timely tweets helped bring about the end of a nine-year feud between Twitter and Instagram. [
The Verge]

A new wave of would-be media moguls are buying up lower-level soccer teams across Europe, creating a novel question for players and fans: Which comes first, the content or the club? [
The New York Times]
Quote Of The Week
"I think the narrative is changing from ‘Fuck Jake Paul’ to ‘We love Jake Paul.’"
-Jake Paul, a notorious social media instigator, speaking to The New Yorker about his left turn into the world of professional boxing.
Kevin Dowd
Staff Writer
I am a staff writer at Forbes. I previously wrote for PitchBook, where I created The Weekend Pitch, a weekly newsletter about the private markets. Before that, I covered high school sports in the Pacific Northwest, and I graduated from the University of Washington with a degree in journalism and creative writing. I live in Seattle, where I read a lot of books and play a lot of golf.
Follow me on Twitter.
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