Week in Review - crypto AR metaverses and what comes next

Saturday, December 18, 2021 • By Lucas Matney

Hello friends, and welcome back to Week in Review!

Last week, we looked at the dark horse of the augmented reality race. I won’t be sending out this newsletter the next couple weeks over the holidays, so this week I’ll leave you with a more expansive bit than usual that you can treat as my year-in-review. I’ll be right back in January!

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the big thing

This was a defining year for tech. Public markets had an epic love affair with tech stocks, private valuations swelled and the broader tech industry finally embraced crypto. But for all the action we saw this year, it’s clear that the wildest saga is still ahead.

While so-called web3 proponents have laid out a vision for the future defined by decentralized platform opportunities, open source software and vast digital economies that users can tap into, that concept hardly seems appealing to Big Tech. The largest tech companies scaled further and faster than many thought possible this year, while grumblings over their power boiled over on either side of the political aisle.

What lies ahead in 2022 and beyond is a multitrillion-dollar battle for the heart of the consumer web.

On one side is a crypto industry that’s enticing young developers with the spirit of an early internet while confounding consumers who see nearly unimaginable sums of money being flexed on coins, JPGs and outright scams. On the other side are much more sober-appearing Web 2.0 platform owners like Apple and Meta (formerly Facebook) that have crafted software and hardware platforms defined by top-down curation. Their vision for the future is right in front of your eyes, or at least, it will be.

Existing Big Tech giants will find their ability to maintain a monopoly on user attention by seizing on the augmented reality opportunity. I’ve talked about Meta and Apple endlessly as battle-seasoned contenders gearing up for a fight against each other, but their hardware platforms are also a bet on being able to decide what the future of the web looks like and what types of products it’s optimized for.

AR is largely a bet on unified vision, and while plenty of developers are building aggressively for this future as well, it’s clear that mobile’s gatekeeper’s stand to win the most. Augmented reality offers existing kingpins the promise of another few decades of tight control over developer ecosystems in an unprecedented capacity. While the consumer web was re-shaped for mobile over time, AR headsets with new input mechanisms may require a broader rethinking of what the free and open web means — a potential opportunity for powers like Apple to remake the web in the image of the App Store.

The fact is that Big Tech won’t be able to compete in web3; the regulatory landscape is just too hostile. Facebook has made its own slow-moving efforts here for years and has precious little to show for it besides a consumer app in early testing in Guatemala. While regulatory bodies like the SEC are hardly equipped to handle the rash of rising startups and individuals operating at the edge of legality, those agencies will make any exception to take shots at Big Tech, which has found itself in the center of every regulator’s dartboard.

The last five years of the web has been host to some glaring growing pains of an entire world of users coming online together and sinking into powerful platforms crafted by companies that are bigger than ever before. In truth, this is hardly an AR versus crypto future so much as a race between developers tapping into a technology and massive tech platforms angling for future made in the image of the present.

I’m sure that web3 has some key advantages to finding its home in an AR future, largely because the space has developer momentum on its side, while Apple and Meta are likely still years away from a mainstream iteration of these devices that haven’t even seen the light of day yet. Web3 builders have at least a couple of years to work their way into the fibers of the consumer web.

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other things

Here are a few stories this week I think you should take a closer look at:

Reddit readies to go public
This week, Reddit confidentially filed for an IPO. The social media/news platform was last valued by private investors at $10 billion.

It’s a momentous milestone for the company, which has always seemed to struggle with balancing its rationalist ideals for the future of the web with the on-the-ground truths of online hate speech and disinformation. Whether the company can move past these issues and transform itself into a Meta-sized giant or will stay relegated to a Twitter-sized market cap is the trillion-dollar question.

FTC may rule against ‘commercial surveillance’
The FTC has found itself tasked with navigating a politically charged war with Big Tech with stakeholders on both sides of the aisle. An internal note from the agency detailed a rule that would “curb lax security practices, limit privacy abuses, and ensure that algorithmic decision-making does not result in unlawful discrimination” at major tech companies.

“The FTC is prepared to use all of our tools to combat harmful commercial surveillance practices and protect Americans’ privacy,” an FTC spokesperson told TechCrunch.

Nike acquires NFT company
It’s been an awfully weird year when it comes to NFTs, this week Nike got in on the action by buying an NFT studio called RTFKT (pronounced “artifact,” not something else). The studio has been designing its own physical and virtual shoes while partnering with popular street artists to become the crypto Supreme.

This space is just getting started, and while traditional brands might not know exactly what they’re looking at, that’s not stopping them from getting in on the action.

Image Credits: Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket / Getty Images

added things

Some of my favorite reads from our newly renamed TechCrunch+ subscription service this week:

How to build a better rocket company
“…I think space tech is all about rapidly iterating, as opposed to working for seven to 10 years on a single product, and having that bespoke application, because it means you have to know perfectly what the future is. And nobody buys an iPhone and then 10 years later says this is the best thing in the world, you want the latest thing. And so similarly, when you think about iterating, and doing space tech, both again, launch as well as on orbit, you really want this iterative approach that’s very focused on customers, as opposed to kind of the old school way of doing aerospace…”

What I unlearned about startups this year
“…I’ve spent years reporting on diversity efforts within tech companies and investment firms, meaning that I’ve long held onto a mantra: ‘You can only improve what you measure.’ And while I still believe that to be true for empowering historically overlooked individuals, I’ve stopped thinking that formalizing and tracking every corner of a startup will solve issues around culture and tension…“

A few questions about the impending Reddit IPO
“…After watching Twitter manage to expand its product mix without overly diluting its core experience, it will be more than interesting to see how Reddit discusses its product work and how new features are boosting — or not — usage patterns…”