Morning Brew - Business as usual ☕️

Fashion Week executives have declared business as usual, as omicron surges on
Morning Brew January 17, 2022

Retail Brew

Ordergroove

Hello, hello. Today is MLK Day, a day to commemorate and celebrate the life of the great American civil rights leader...with doorbuster sales.

In today’s edition:

  • Fashion Week presentations carry on amid omicron surge
  • Retail sales saw a December dip

—Jeena Sharma, Erin Cabrey

FASHION

Staying the course

Models walking for a fashion show Unsplash

The fashion industry came together on the catwalk last week, as officials in New York, Paris, and Milan said the show business must go on.

In Milan, where daily Covid cases surpassed 200,000 (a record day for the city) just two weeks ago, major designers such as Armani canceled their shows entirely, while others like JW Anderson opted for a digital show. But industry execs have declared business as usual.

  • Fashion Week remains an integral source of both revenue and marketing for a brand, and additionally presents a significant opportunity for the retail industry, according to Erin Schmidt, a senior analyst at Coresight Research.

“Not only is Fashion Week important for major brands, but it is exceptionally important for the entire retail industry because all eyes are on high-fashion major brands to set the [fashion] agenda for the season; mass retailers and fast fashion look to runway shows as all of the Fashion Week trends inform and inspire designers and brands’ collections,” she told us.

What’s on? Dsquared2, Zegna, Prada, and Fendi are on the Milan Fashion Week calendar, which includes 22 presentations, and 18 digital content segments.

  • Over in New York, the Council of Fashion Designers of America (CFDA), has released its calendar which lists a mix of physical and digital shows and includes NYFW mainstays like Tom Ford, Coach, and Proenza Schouler.

In the event of a physical show, CFDA and IMG have pledged to follow New York City’s Covid protocols—in place since September—including “mandatory vaccination, mask wearing indoors, and scaling back the size of audiences,” Steven Kolb, the chief executive of the CFDA, told Vogue.

Zoom out: According to Aoife Byrne, senior retail and runway analyst at market intelligence platform Edited, the strength of designers is “magnified” through physical, structured fashion weeks.

  • “Brands are stronger together than apart,” she said, “With precautions in place and [with] boosters rolling out, organizers and brands are in a far stronger position than they were this time last year. Physical fashion shows can help brands stand out in an overcrowded digital space.”

Still, digital fashion presentations are here to stay, as evidenced by several designers on the Fashion Week calendar. Schmidt believes they have their unique benefits. “The benefit is that the shows provided access to a much larger audience base, which would have never been able to see the shows in person, as most physical shows are exclusive events,” she said.—JS

        

SPENDING

Point of sale

Grocery cart and store shelf Francis Scialabba

After four consecutive months of growth, retail sales slumped in December, falling a seasonally adjusted 1.9% from November to $626.8 billion, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. But it’s not all bad news—December sales rose 16.9% YoY, with Americans spending $103.6 billion more last month than they did in December 2020.

  • Total sales for 2021 also saw a notable boost from last year, rising 19.3%. Plus, from October to December 2021, sales increased 17.1%.

After a tough go in December 2020, restaurants and bars saw the largest YoY boost, with sales up 41.3%, though the segment did see a 0.8% dip from November to December 2021.

  • Gas stations notched 41% YoY growth, with a 0.7% decrease for the month.
  • Clothing and accessories stores secured a 29.5% YoY jump, but saw a 3.1% drop from November to December last year.
  • Food and beverage saw a smaller growth (+8.4%) over December 2020, while sales decreased 0.5% since November 2021.

Buying in: ​​Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, noted on Friday that consumers’ earlier holiday shopping in 2021 played a part in December’s slowdown.

Higher prices contributed to the YoY sales bump (inflation rose at its highest level in nearly 40 years last month, up 7% YoY),​​​​ though volume was up, as shoppers continued to “​​spend relatively freely,” Saunders said. GlobalData found that shoppers were “absolutely determined to enjoy themselves” after 2020’s less-than-stellar holiday season.

Looking ahead…The YoY sales boost showed a significant recovery from the beginning of the pandemic. Saunders predicts that 2022’s growth rates won’t be as dramatic—some consumers are already demonstrating money-saving tactics like buying value-priced items—but he doesn’t think they will be “disastrous” either.

“It is a step change from where we have been in the past 18 months, which is best characterized as a rapidly rising tide of spending that has floated most retail boats. If that starts to ebb, the weaker retailers will quickly become exposed," he said.—EC

        

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WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • US grocery shortages worsen amid growing consumer demand and rising freight costs.
  • Uniqlo shoppers were stuck inside its Shanghai flagship for 48 hours as a potential case of Covid was traced to the store.
  • New York Covid numbers are trending downward after a record-breaking spike, Governor Kathy Hochul said.
  • Retail sales dropped 1.9% in December as omicron and inflation soared.
  • GE suspended its vaccination and testing rules after the Biden Administration’s  mandate for large businesses was blocked by the Supreme Court.

SWAPPING SKUS

Today’s top retail reads.

Point of no returns: With surging online sales comes a wave of returns, and retailers are taking new steps to mitigate—and hopefully prevent—return madness in the future. (Business of Fashion)

Tight ship: Harbor Ship Supply—a “Walmart of the seas” that stocks ships with groceries and tools—is floundering amid a slew of pandemic-related challenges. ​​“It’s bigger than a supply-chain issue. It’s an employment issue. It’s a trucking issue,” owner Jeff Crouthamel said. (Los Angeles Times)

Paying attention: BNPL is rising in popularity, but also raising concerns, particularly around customers’ debt accumulation and its use of shoppers’ personal data. (Bloomberg)

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HOT TOPIC

At the mall, it’s where band tees are the only tees. In Retail Brew, it’s where we invite readers to weigh in on a trending retail topic.

TJX is the latest retail company to push employees to get vaccinated. If employees don’t receive their booster shots by February, they can no longer work at the company. Columbia Sportswear and Nike recently announced similar rules. Meanwhile, retailers like Macy’s and Lululemon are cutting hours at select locations due to an increase in Covid cases.

So, how should retailers should handle Covid concerns? Let us know what you think.

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Written by Jeena Sharma and Erin Cabrey

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