To kick off the week, let’s head to the Russia–Ukraine border, where Russia has amassed at least 70% of the military capacity it needs to invade its neighbor, the US government said this weekend.

That means, in the words of National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan yesterday, a move into Ukraine “could happen as soon as tomorrow or it could take some weeks yet.”

• The US has estimated that a war could leave 50,000 civilians killed or wounded, 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead, and millions of refugees looking for shelter across Europe.

It could also could sap Europe of energy

Among the scenarios keeping world leaders up at night is the possibility that Russia could cut off energy supplies to Europe.

How that would play out: If Russia invades, the US has vowed to unleash “the mother of all sanctions” against the country. Russia, in retaliation, could counter with its own mother lode—withholding gas shipments to Europe.

Which…would not be good, given Europe has a coffee-level dependence on Russian energy.

• Russia supplies about 33% of Europe’s natural gas, and more than 25% of its crude oil imports.
• Germany, in one extreme example, relies on Russia for more than half of its natural gas.

Putting Europe in an even more vulnerable position is the fact that consumers are already being squeezed by record energy prices. 22 million households in Britain will see their gas and electricity bill spike 54% come April, an energy regulator warned.

What can be done? Not a whole lot. One hope is that Russia won’t cut off all gas shipments, because that move could be just as damaging to its own economy as it would be to the rest of Europe. Still, Europe is exploring importing more gas from other countries in case Russia shuts off the spigot.

Looking ahead…leaders will be holding two separate high-stakes meetings today centered on the Ukraine conflict. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Washington, DC, to meet with President Biden, and French President Emmanuel Macron will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Macron said he thinks it’s possible to avoid a war.

Spotify has scrubbed as many as 70 episodes of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast after a video compilation showed Rogan using the N-word in past episodes spanning 12 years.

In a note to employees, Spotify CEO Daniel Ek said that Rogan “chose to remove a number of episodes from Spotify” due to his racially insensitive language. Rogan issued his own apology on Instagram over the weekend:

• The podcaster said those clips looked “horrible, even to me” and said this was “the most regretful and shameful thing that I’ve ever had to talk about publicly.”
• “It’s not my word to use,” Rogan added.

Big picture: As more artists pull their music from Spotify over its relationship with Rogan, Ek continues to stand by him. “While I strongly condemn what Joe has said…I do not believe that silencing Joe is the answer,” he said. “Looking at the issue more broadly, it’s critical thinking and open debate that powers real and necessary progress.”

Ek also said he’d commit $100 million (perhaps uncoincidentally the value of Rogan’s deal with Spotify) for the licensing, development, and marketing of music and audio content from marginalized groups.

Like most fitness equipment, Peloton has ended up as garage sale browsing fodder.

Multiple reports out Friday revealed that several companies—namely Amazon and Nike—were considering a purchase of the at-home fitness maker.

In general, Peloton makes an attractive takeover target because it’s on decent financial footing, boasts a highly loyal user base, and has become much cheaper due to its recent stock plunge (down nearly 85% from its 2020 peak). So why would it make sense for Amazon or Nike?

• Amazon: Peloton would give Amazon a bigger foothold in the wellness area, which it’s already exploring with its Halo fitness band. Amazon could also lend its supply chain expertise to shore up Peloton’s logistics woes, and perhaps bundle a Peloton subscription into its Prime membership.
• Nike: Buying Peloton would represent a bold pivot by the company from fitness tech software to hardware. But the brand fit is there, Axios notes.

Other potential buyers have also been floated, including the usual suspects Apple, Google, Netflix, Microsoft, or a private equity firm.

Still, any deal is contingent on the support of Peloton CEO John Foley, who has a tight grip on the board’s voting power. He’d have to be in a truly despairing mood to sell the company he co-founded in 2012.

Inflation: The monthly inflation report we’ve all come to dread will drop on Thursday, and it’s once again expected to be quite dreadful. Consumer prices are projected to have jumped 0.5% from the previous month and 7.3% over the past year—which would be the biggest increase since 1982.

Earnings: Last week’s earnings reports resulted in violent swings in stock prices, from Snap’s 59% gain to Meta’s 26% wipeout. The companies reporting this week—Pfizer, Disney, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Twitter, and Zillow among them—know that in this market, any small stain on their financials could lead to a stock plunge.

Olympics: The 2022 Beijing Games enter their first full week. Here’s the current medal count, and here’s the TV schedule for today, which includes Nathan Chen in the men’s figure skating short program and a US–Canada women’s hockey battle.

Everything else:

• The Academy Award nominees will be announced Tuesday.
• New York Fashion Week begins on Friday.
• The Super Bowl between the Bengals and Rams is on Sunday. Expect a lot of crypto ads.

Stat: Chanel has raised the price of its Classic Flap bag by $3,000 since 2019, from $5,200 to $8,200. The entire luxury sector has been jacking up prices during the pandemic but, despite a few grumblings, it appears wealthy buyers aren’t fazed. “We’ve seen absolutely no consumer resistance to any of the price increases that we have taken, and there will be more,” John Idol, the CEO of Versace owner Capri, said recently.

Quote: “You come with a smile on your face, and you leave with a bigger smile on your face.”

Andy Johnson is the founder of Love Cloud, a company that will take you and your partner on a private, 45-minute Mile High Club Flight for $995. Yes, it’s exactly what it sounds like, complete with a twin mattress, pillows, and a pilot who wears noise-canceling headphones.

Read: The real names of Bored Ape Yacht Club’s pseudonymous founders. (BuzzFeed News)

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Dive back into the week.

• Shallow dive: Bill Murray doing Bill Murray things
• Medium dive: These birds do not exist
• Deep dive: The man who almost faked his way to a Nobel Prize
• Cannonball: Free courses on Black history from MasterClass

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Turntable: It’s the hottest word game since Wordle—the Brew’s Turntable. Play it here.

Royal trivia

Queen Elizabeth II celebrated 70 years on the throne with her Platinum Jubilee yesterday. She’s the UK’s longest-ruling monarch in history—but who’s No. 2?

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