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Why young Americans are shunning the housing market...
February 08, 2022 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

Fundrise

Good morning. While the athletes are undoubtedly impressive, the real star of the Olympics thus far is the remarkable setting of the freestyle skiing big air event. The structure was constructed on the site of the now-closed Shougang Group steel mill, China's first state-owned plant that propelled it to world dominance in steel production, per the AP.

Big Air ski runNBC

Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, Matty Merritt

MARKETS

Nasdaq

14,015.67

S&P

4,483.87

Dow

35,091.13

10-Year

1.921%

Bitcoin

$44,104.27

Nvidia

$247.28

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks were a mixed bag in the absence of much market-moving news, but bitcoin rallied for the fifth-straight day in a sign that investors may be warming up to riskier assets again. In a changing of the guard, tech giant Nvidia overtook Meta to become the seventh-largest US company by market cap (though it's reportedly abandoning its $40 billion megadeal to acquire the chip designer Arm).
  • Covid: Hope your maskne is under control, because New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, California, and Oregon all announced plans to lift various mask mandates. And Australia is opening its borders to international (fully vaccinated) travelers for the first time in almost two years. Bondi Beach, here we come.

REAL ESTATE

Young Americans shun the housing market

Bart Simpson writing, The Simpsons/20th TV Animation via Ranzey.com

More than 80% of Americans ages 18–34 said now was a bad time to buy a house, according to a Fannie Mae survey released yesterday. Their gloomy outlook is shared by the broader population: A record-low proportion of Americans—just 25%—said it was a good time to buy a house right now.

It’s not a good time if you can’t afford it

The median home-sale price reached a record high of $365,000 in January, according to Redfin. That’s a 16% jump from the previous January and a 28% increase from January 2019.

Skyrocketing home prices highlight the severe demand–supply imbalance that emerged in the housing market over the pandemic.

  • Interest in buying homes soared thanks to historically low interest rates and the desire to avoid your trumpet-playing neighbor at all costs.
  • But the supply of available houses has not kept up—not even close. In fact, the 910,000 homes for sale at the end of December was the lowest since the National Association of Realtors began keeping track in 1999.

It all amounted to January being the most competitive month in US housing market history, Redfin said.

But young people are getting squeezed harder than most

Among the reasons why…

  1. The disappearing starter home: The US’ supply of properties 1,400 square feet or smaller (the ones ideal for your first home) has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years. Starter homes accounted for just 7% of construction in 2019, compared to 40% in 1980.
  2. Battle for the suburbs: Home prices are rising the fastest in suburbs with a higher share of children—neighborhoods where millennials are most interested in buying homes.

Big picture: Millennials like to think they’re the main character in every story, but in this case…they actually are. Many of them are about to hit 32, which is the median age of first-time home buyers in the US. Therefore, “As millennials go, so goes the housing market,” said Zillow economist Nicole Bachaud.—NF

        

TRAVEL

New airline with zero legroom just dropped

A photo illustration combing Spirit and Frontier Airlines jets. Photo Illustration: Dianna “Mick” McDougall; Sources: Spirit Airlines, Frontier Airlines

Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines announced plans on Monday to merge in a $6.6 billion dollar deal that, if approved, would create the fifth-largest US airline.

Spirit and Frontier say the deal would create a discount Megazord able to compete with the top four US airlines (American, Delta, United, and Southwest), which combined control about 80% of the domestic market. According to Spirit and Frontier, the deal would provide $1 billion in annual savings for consumers and create 10,000 new jobs by 2026. Also, imagine all the new ways they could tweet, “We’re sorry. DM us and we’ll try to get this settled.”

The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2022, but before that can happen, it needs to get past regulators—and they’ve already signaled a distaste for airline alliances.

  • In September, the Justice Department sued to unwind a “de facto merger” between American Airlines and JetBlue.
  • In 2016, a more merger-friendly Justice Department allowed Alaska Air to buy Virgin for $2.6 billion, but required the company to scale back a partnership with American to do so.

Fun fact: A combined Frontier and Spirit Airlines would hold more than a quarter of the market at Orlando’s airport—more than any other airline.—MK

        

ENTERTAINMENT

‘The Matrix’ gets even more complicated

Matrix Resurrections movie poster The Matrix Resurrections/Warner Bros.

Village Roadshow Entertainment, co-producers of The Matrix Resurrections, sued Warner Bros. yesterday for allegedly hatching a plan to pad HBO Max’s numbers by releasing the film simultaneously in theaters and on the streaming service.

This story begins in the early days of the pandemic, when Warner Bros. announced it would release its entire 2021 slate of theatrical films in cinemas and on its HBO Max streaming service on the same day. The strategy: meet customers where they were (on the couch).

This was effectively an admission that streaming subscribers are the real money-makers for movies, which peeved talent and producers whose earnings rely on box office revenue. And when it came to box office revenue, Neo didn’t bring the goods.

  • The Matrix Resurrections has grossed a measly $37 million in US theaters since its December 22 release date, flopping harder than the two previous Matrix entries.

In the lawsuit, Village Roadshow claims that Warner Bros. pushed up the release date (originally slated for 2022) to juice 2021 year-end HBO Max subscribers, knowingly self-sabotaging its box office performance. It also accused Warner Bros. of ignoring the wave of piracy that’s hit streaming releases, further denting the flick’s earnings potential.

Big picture: This isn’t the first time a movie’s dual release has sparked legal drama. Last year, Scarlett Johansson sued Disney for $80 million after its simultaneous release of Black Widow on Disney+ and in theaters cost her a chunk of a box office-based bonus (the two sides later settled out of court).—MM

        

TOGETHER WITH FUNDRISE

An easy way to invest in real estate

Fundrise

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Are you thinking, “Does that mean I’ll now own stake in actual buildings and properties across the country?” Heck yeah, that’s what it means.

Opportunities like this have (obviously) been open primarily to institutional investors who had the resources to deal with these aforementioned hurdles—but thanks to Fundrise’s tech, now you can get in on this investment. Plus, it’s a way to help achieve the double whammy potential of investing: portfolio growth and stability.

So if you want to join the largest direct-to-investor real estate investment platform—along with 210,000 other people building a powerful and resilient portfolio—check out Fundrise today.

PRIVACY

The IRS backs off of facial recognition tech

A facial recognition demonstration at CES. DAVID MCNEW/AFP via Getty Images

The IRS doesn’t want to see your face anymore. After receiving backlash from privacy advocates and bipartisan lawmakers, the IRS is abandoning its use of third-party facial recognition software ID.me.

What happened? In November, the IRS announced that by summer 2022 all taxpayers would need to provide documents and a video selfie to the third-party company ID.me in order to use the agency’s website.

ID.me was previously used in a limited capacity by the IRS, and it’s also utilized by 30 states for unemployment services. But as this year’s tax season kicked off on January 24, the agency’s use of facial recognition came under more scrutiny.

Critics pointed out a slew of issues with ID.me:

  • The process is challenging for taxpayers without a smartphone or web camera.
  • Facial recognition tech has been criticized for misidentifying people of color, gender-nonconforming people, and women.
  • ID.me uses “one-to-many” matching—meaning it keeps a database of user images.
  • ID.me’s terms of service grant the company the right to share data it collects with the police, government, and “select partners.”

Zoom out: The IRS says that its transition away from ID.me will take place in the coming weeks and won’t cause any problems for tax filers.—MK

For more updates on facial recognition and other futuristic technologies, subscribe to Emerging Tech Brew.

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

WSJ: Peter Thiel Wants to Get Into Late-Stage Companies Neilson Barnard/Getty Images for New York Times

Stat: Tech investor Peter Thiel wrote a $500,000 check to thefacebook.com in 2004; when Facebook IPO’d in 2012, he cashed out a chunk of his holdings for $638 million. Yesterday, Thiel cut even more ties with the company now known as Meta, announcing he will step down from his position on the board in order to spend more time helping elect Trump-aligned Republican candidates in the 2022 midterms, per the WSJ.

Quote: “Age is just a number.”

Dutch speedskater Ireen Wüst became the first athlete in history to win an individual gold medal at five different Olympics after her win in the 1,500 meters Monday. Now 35, she won her first gold at the Turin Olympics in 2006, when she was 19.

Read: Matt Saincome is going to get rich or lose it all. (Morning Brew)

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Amazon is more than doubling its maximum base pay for corporate and tech employees from $160,000 to $350,000.
  • Free community college won’t be a part of the Build Back Better plan the White House is hoping to revive, First Lady Jill Biden said yesterday.
  • Eileen Gu, an 18-year-old skiing star who was born in the US, won gold for China in the women's freestyle big air.
  • Fight Club’s original ending has been restored in China after an edited version (in which the authorities saved the day) drew outcry last month.

TOGETHER WITH RAMP

Ramp

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BREW'S BETS

Revisit a classic: Liar’s Poker, the iconic Michael Lewis book that defined an era of Wall Street gluttony, is now available as an unabridged audiobook. Get it today and you’ll receive access to exclusive photos, notes from Michael’s personal archives, alternative titles, and commentary.

The Wikipedia game: If you love going down Wikipedia rabbit holes, this game is for you.

For your second monitor: A mysterious laboratory in a calm forest.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Mini: This week’s Minis are both themed around that big football matchup on Sunday. Get ready for the big game here.

Oscar trivia

This year’s Academy Award nominees will be released today. To mark the occasion, we’ll give you a famous quote from a Best Picture-winning movie and the year it was released. You have to name the movie.

  1. “There has to be a mathematical explanation for how bad that tie is.” (2001)
  2. “I’ll wait for you at the train station every day at five.” (2008)
  3. “I do wish we could chat longer, but I’m having an old friend for dinner. Bye.” (1991)
  4. “This trial…the whole world…it’s all…show business.” (2002)
  5. “I am 42 years old; in less than a year I will be dead. Of course I don’t know that yet, and in a way, I am dead already.” (1999)

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ANSWER

  1. A Beautiful Mind
  2. Slumdog Millionaire
  3. The Silence of the Lambs
  4. Chicago
  5. American Beauty

✢ A Note From Fundrise

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Written by Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, and Max Knoblauch

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