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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), Yesterdays Insider Buys & Yesterdays Unusual Call Options Volume.

INSIDER BUYS / UNUSUAL CALL VOLUME / UNUSUAL PUT VOLUME

TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up!

BUY LIST UPDATE: Yesterdays earnings play on the BUY LIST was one of the largest beats I’ve ever seen. God only knows why analysts had such low expectations. Perhaps they hadn’t updated their expectations for some time. Either way you’ll find the results in the paid section below.

YESTERDAY: Retail Sales Numbers were roughly a third more than what was expected yesterday (not adjusted for inflation). That got the markets off to a good start but when the FOMC minutes were released the markets turned noticeably downward for an overall flat day. Why? I dunno, … perhaps based on fear for how others would trade the news. If the Fed seems hawkish the market’s dump for fear of high interest rates… if the Fed seems dovish the market’s dump for fear of too little being done about inflation. Whatever, …. the day that never was.

TODAY: Futures have returned to negative territory as traders digest the FOMC minutes. Moreover it’s still unclear what the hell Russia is doing (Update Below). Of course we have building permits & housing starts on the economic calendar. I don’t have any personal predictions in the housing & construction market, but I can tell you I’m not long term bullish on starts & permits. The price of building materials is through the roof, largely due to supply chain bottlenecks, Biden’s tariffs on Canadian lumber, high demand due to low interest rates, & the truckers protesting on the Canadian border. Consensus sits at 1.76m permits & 1.7m housing starts … both slightly less than the previous report.

RUSSIA UPDATE: Russia has had troops on the Ukrainian border for roughly a decade now. Will they attack? We may not find out until they attack. With such a long term presence it’s impossible to know until NATO intelligence detects an aggressive posture. When I was an analyst in the Army the key indicators of an invasion are generally active casualty stations being set up in the rear & engineers being brought in with heavy equipment for mine clearing & river crossings. No doubt NATO is keeping a close eye on the movements of forward reconnaissance units as well (Which are typically the first large troop units to cross the border in any war). I would not be surprised if Russia already had special forces units among the separatists (Likely for years). In any case Russia claims its going to take time to move troops to the rear & the U.S. claims Russia has added 7,000 more troops (Perhaps coming back from the exercise in Belarus?).

Watch for news on the Russian backed militants in Eastern Ukraine. They may start up a stir for no other purpose than to deliver the excuse for an invasion … which is likely why all those troops are on the border in the first pace … to protect the annexation of Crimea & back the separatists if the Ukraine lays down the law. Either way there’s just no way to tell, there are so many moving parts, differing interests across more than just one border, amid an ever evolving political situation, & the markets are trading accordingly.

If Russia invades it will likely be at night which means right in the middle of our trading day… but then again, we also have a three day weekend coming up … observed as a federal holiday. Were I Putin that’s when I would invade (I hope the markets don’t think so on Friday). The NATO response times over a weekend will no doubt be delayed with minimal manning on staff (Europe loves their time off), & the Winter Olympics come to an official end on Sunday (Avoiding angering the Chinese by interrupting the closing ceremony & propaganda pageantry). Thus Sunday Night (Saturday Afternoon on a 3 day weekend in the US) is when I expect a possible invasion … if it will happen at all. The Wednesday thesis as touted in the media & the Biden Administration was a horrible assessment. Russia will need Chinese trade & commerce to offset European sanctions & China would be none too happy if Russia invaded prior to the end of the Winter Olympics. With this in mind, caution is warranted when beginning new positions.

Headwinds Ahead: I have a responsibility to warn my subscribers that bullish companies are going to be increasingly hard to find in this environment. I therefore owe it to you to scrutinize my picks more than ever as a result of REAL headwinds. The quick turnarounds we were accustomed to in the past are simply not going to happen in this economy. A swing that may take a month or two last year may take a quarter or two this year. Therefore I think it prudent to buy in slow & only average down when it hurts. Most companies remain profitable, but an adjustment in long term valuations & expectations are necessary. I will trade accordingly.

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Significant News Heading into 02.17.2022:

• Russia adds 7,000 troops to Ukraine border, despite claims it would withdraw some forces, U.S. says

• Stock futures dip as investors weigh earnings, Fed and geopolitics

• Treasury yields fall as investors digest Fed update and monitor Russia-Ukraine crisis

• European markets mixed as investors track geopolitical tensions, earnings

• Asia-Pacific stocks mixed as investors monitor Ukraine situation

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco, DoorDash, Fastly and more

• U.S. antitrust enforcer, FBI announce effort to deter, identify collusion

AVERAGE STATS ON ALL STOCKS ON THE BUY LIST AS OF MARKET CLOSE 02/07/2022 (FINVIZ & YCHARTS)

• Average Trailing PE: 10.27 vs S&P (25.00 est)

• Average Forward PE: 8.50 vs S&P (22.35 est)

• Average PS: 0.75 vs S&P (2.85 est)

• Average PEG: 0.72

• Average PB: 1.72 vs S&P (4.38 est)

• Average Current Ratio: 2.26

• Average Insider + Institutional Investment: (84.27%)

• Average Debt to Equity: 0.49

• Average P/L on the BUY LIST as of 02/11/2022 -6.62 (Value at a Discount Amid a Market Pullback)

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 14 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 56 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist

• 13 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

• 6 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST)

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