Vox Sentences - Russia-Ukraine is escalating fast

US President Joe Biden warned that Russian attacks in Ukraine will occur in the coming days; Russia is likely already building its pretext for an invasion. 

Tonight's Sentences was written by Ellen Ioanes.

Is Russia edging closer to invading Ukraine?

Aleksey Filippov/AFP via Getty Images

• US President Joe Biden warned on Thursday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine may be imminent, and that Russia may stage a false flag operation of some sort to try to justify an incursion. Biden disputed Russia’s claims that it had pulled thousands of troops from the Ukrainian border, and said while he still believes a diplomatic path is possible, he has no intentions to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the immediate future. [The Hill / Alex Gangitano]
• On Wednesday, press secretary Jen Psaki issued a similar warning, saying that such pretexts for invasion could include Russian reports of mass graves in Donbas, “claims of provocation in Donbas, fake videos, false accusations about chemical weapons or accounts of attacks on Russian soldiers that have not actually occurred.” [White House]
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unplanned trip to the United Nations to discuss the likelihood that Russia would manufacture an excuse to invade Ukraine. Blinken said that Russia could stage “a fake, even a real, attack using chemical weapons” and accuse Ukraine of “ethnic cleansing or a genocide.” [Reuters / Michelle Nichols and Humeyra Pamuk]
• Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to Germany to engage in diplomatic discussions with “dozens” of heads of state in order to synchronize their responses should Russia invade Ukraine. She will also address the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, where she will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. [AP / Aamer Madhani]
• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with NATO leadership in Brussels and gave a press conference Thursday, during which he told reporters that Russia has added more troops to those amassed at the border with Ukraine, while also increasing combat and supply aircraft, and blood supplies, apparently in preparation for battle casualties. He also stated that some US troops would head to Bulgaria for a training exercise with the NATO ally. [Pentagon]

Russia could be building a fake narrative for invading Ukraine 

• There were reports of shelling in Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk in the eastern part of the country on Thursday around 9 am local time, which Russia claims was perpetrated by the Ukrainian armed forces. There were no deaths, but some projectiles hit a kindergarten and injured three teachers. [WSJ / Yaroslav Trofimov and Ann M. Simmons]
• The attack could be a false flag, part of Russia’s attempt to build a narrative of Ukrainian aggression as a pretext for an invasion. During Thursday’s UN Security Council meeting, Russia circulated a document accusing Ukraine of war crimes against Russian speakers in the eastern part of the country. [Reuters / Michelle Nichols and Humeyra Pamuk]
• Russia also laid out its latest security demands, calling on the US and NATO countries to “stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine, withdraw all Western advisers and instructors from the country, stop participating in joint exercises with Ukraine’s armed forces and withdraw all foreign weapons previously supplied to Kyiv.” The 11-page list of demands also included a legally binding guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO; the Kremlin says it will be “forced to respond” with what it called “military-technical” measures should the West not respond favorably. [Moscow Times]
• Meanwhile, the UK, Poland, and Ukraine announced a tripartite agreement Thursday, with the UK and Poland stating they “will continue to provide Ukraine with support, standing in unity with Ukraine, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, and [are] fully committed to stand with Ukrainian nation in its efforts aimed at defending Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders.” [Al Jazeera]
• Finally, the US Embassy in Moscow confirmed that Russia had expelled the US’s No. 2 diplomat, Bart Gorman, from the country. “Russia’s action against our [deputy chief of mission] was unprovoked and we consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response,” an embassy spokesperson said. [Politico / Nahal Toosi and Mackenzie Wilkes]

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has announced that it is investigating 416,000 Tesla vehicles due to reports of unexpected brake engagement connected to the vehicles’ Autopilot program. [Reuters / David Shepardson]

• The US Senate has started a bipartisan group to investigate conditions in federal prisons after reporting found endemic corruption and abuse in the prison system. [AP / Michael Balsamo and Michael R. Sisak]
• The US Department of Education will wipe out student loan debt for at least 1,800 DeVry University students, who were defrauded by the for-profit university’s inflated claims about graduates’ future job prospects. [NYT / Stacy Cowley]
• Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-TX) are suing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, aiming to strike down the mask mandate for air travel. [Texas Tribune / Sneha Dey]

“Russian missiles and bombs drop across Ukraine. Communications will be jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers advance on key targets that have been mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.”

[US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, laying out a possible scenario for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at a meeting of the UN Security Council Thursday]

Methane traps more than 80 times as much heat as CO2 over the short term. So we could make a real difference on climate change this decade if we could stop leaking so much methane into the atmosphere. But before researchers and regulators can figure out how to do that, the methane hunters need to find the leaks. [Spotify]

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