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TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up!

BUY LIST UPDATE: Nothing added today. I was doing a deep dive & conducing some analysis on the possible fallout of Russian sanctions & this war in Ukraine. I figured I owed this to you before providing any more plays.

POWW Update: One of my public plays here. Richard Childress, AMMO, Inc. Director, is Scheduled to Appear on FOX & Friends to Discuss AMMO’s Recent Donation Offer to Ukrainian Armed Forces in Support of Their Fight for Freedom

RUSSIA UPDATE: By now you’re noticing that every company with direct exposure to Ukraine & Russia have been dumping. Remember that solid profit we made on DXC? They have an office in Russia (Now nearly back to where we bought it). Global chemical manufacturers? Most have offices in Moscow. Notice the price of softs going up? Russia is a net exporter of grains. Gas going up? Oil makes 60% of Russia’s exports. Software companies, AAPL/MSFT, computer companies, HP/DELL, & GOOGL android devices. All produced &/or sold in Russia. Its a real shit storm!

We are one conflict away from a CERTIAN recession/depression. Alarmist you say? If Russia is able to hold Ukraine, & China invades Taiwan, what will that do to the global semiconductor market? Some of the largest semiconductor producing companies in the world are in Taiwan. The Ukraine produces 90% of the worlds semiconductor grade neon gas. What country comes in second place (for neon)? Russia. What is neon gas used for? Semiconductor production, plasma televisions, computer monitors, lasers, & infrared technology. When Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, the price of neon gas spiked 600%! I have no clue what the price of neon gas is now, or even how abundant it is. It’s a new field of study for me.

So between neon gas, semiconductors, sanctions & oil shortages, the market has been seriously disrupted. Add China invading Taiwan, & the sanctions thereof that are sure to follow, & think of how much exposure both American companies & consumers have in China. China has an opportunity here to become the dominant power on the world stage. A simple invasion of Taiwan, that China could easily do, would indeed hurt their economy. However, it would hurt us way more! And that pesky 7.5% inflation that we’re all afraid of? Think 15-25% inflation on the effects of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan! Inflation sits in China at a respectable 2%. China needs a message that we are willing to sanction that which we need.

Right now the most damaging thing President Biden can do to Russia is sanction their oil & gas industry. However he’s not going to do this. Why? Because that would mean that we would need to drill more in the US. And drilling more in the US would reverse his current green policy decisions. Thus far Biden has blocked all new oil leases on federal lands, he killed the EastMed pipeline, he blocked drilling in ANWR, he killed the Keystone XL pipeline (Biden: “pipeline would not serve the U.S. national interest.”), & yet the only pipeline he did approve (over objections of Republicans) was Russia’s Nord Stream II Pipeline. Regardless, companies like BP & XOM are severing ties to Russian energy anyway.

So regardless, oil that is used to produce & transport every product you can think of from manufacturing to delivery, is going up whether we sanction Russian oil or not. And there is no company, no person, no family, & no entity that is not affected. And the more we spend on energy, the less we spend on everything else. The markets are dumping amid uncertain times. Uncertainty surrounding energy, trade, inflation, supply chains, etc. And the one thing we can do to both punish Putin & help reduce inflation is a solution that the President of the United States is unwilling to entertain. As such, seeing the West’s dependence on foreign oil, seeing as how we are willing to finance Russia’s invasion through buying Russian oil, imagine what the Chinese are thinking when it comes to our critical dependence on Chinese manufacturing & labor? Ladies & Gents we are one invasion away from some serious economic trouble!

Headwinds Ahead: I have a responsibility to warn my subscribers that bullish companies are going to be increasingly hard to find in this environment. I therefore owe it to you to scrutinize my picks more than ever as a result of REAL headwinds. The quick turnarounds we were accustomed to in the past are simply not going to happen in this economy. A swing that may take a month or two last year may take a quarter or two this year. Therefore I think it prudent to buy in slow & only average down when it hurts. Most companies remain profitable, but an adjustment in long term valuations & expectations are necessary. I will trade accordingly.

To my friends in Texas, Happy TX Independence Day!

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Significant News Heading into 03.02.2022:

• Stock futures are positive as intensifying war in Ukraine pushes oil prices higher

• European markets choppy as Ukraine-Russia conflict continues

• Asian Markets Trade Mostly Lower

• China will not join sanctions against Russia, banking regulator says

• Treasury yields rise with focus on Russia-Ukraine crisis, Fed testimony

• OPEC+ to decide on output policy as oil prices spike and Russia supply fears intensify

• Here’s how Chinese media is covering Ukraine

AVERAGE STATS ON ALL STOCKS ON THE BUY LIST AS OF MARKET CLOSE 02/18/2022 (FINVIZ & YCHARTS)

• Share Price Low/Average/High: 4.26/30.46/91.51

• Average Trailing PE: 9.87 vs S&P (24.56est)

• Average Forward PE: 7.98 vs S&P (22.35 est)

• Average PS: 0.76vs S&P (2.85 est)

• Average PEG: 0.68

• Average PB: 1.64 vs S&P (4.38 est)

• Average Current Ratio: 2.34

• Average Insider + Institutional Investment: (84.98%)

• Average Debt to Equity: 0.74

• Average P/L on the BUY LIST as of 02/11/2022 -9.28 (Value at a Discount Amid a Market Pullback)

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 16 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

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