Forgive the pun, but the fact stands: Experts are warning that the escalating war in Ukraine could lead to an energy debacle the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades.

Oil prices have skyrocketed to their highest levels in 10 years over concerns that supply could dry up from Russia, one of the world’s biggest oil exporters.

• The rise has been sharp and sudden. One week ago, at the dawn of the war, US oil prices were at $92. As of last night, they hovered around $109.

Western leaders have so far treated the energy issue with caution. While they’ve effectively vaporized the Russian economy with a barrage of sanctions, they’ve deliberately spared Russian energy companies from the worst of the penalties—such as booting them from the global messaging service SWIFT.

That’s because Europe’s hands are tied with respect to Russian energy. The EU relies on Russia for 40% of its gas consumption, which is used for critical things like heating homes and powering businesses. And unlike the US, which could replace lost Russian gas with supplies from Mexico and Canada, Europe doesn’t have many fallback plans.

Despite the carve outs, however, Russian energy exports have slowed dramatically since the war began. Because of the sanctions on financial institutions (and the toxic status of Russian companies in general) about 70% of Russian crude oil exports “can’t be touched,” energy analyst Amrita Sen told CNBC. What that could result in, said IHS Markit Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin, is the “worst crisis since the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution in the 1970s.”

• It’s never a good sign when your energy situation is compared to the 1970s. That was when OPEC cut off oil exports to the US for helping Israel in the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, which led to soaring prices and stagflation—when inflation soars but economic growth slows.

Looking ahead…despite the consequences to their economies of cracking down on Russian energy, Western governments might decide that funding Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is even worse. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said yesterday that she’s “all for” a ban of Russian oil, and President Biden said “nothing is off the table.” As for Europe, where this Catch-22 hits home the most, leaders are discussing contingency plans if Russian supplies were to dry up completely.

Bottom line: While we don’t know how exactly this crisis will play out, we do know that Europe’s relationship to energy will be forever changed.—NF

Mass exodus from Ukraine. In just over a week since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, over 1 million people (more than 2% of the population) have fled the country, a majority of them heading to neighboring Poland to stay with friends, family, or kind strangers, according to the UN. The UN refugee agency said the war could potentially lead to as many as 4 million refugees.

More Russian boycotts: The International Paralympic Committee is banning Russian and Belarusian athletes from competing in the Games, which start today. Airbnb is suspending all operations in Russia and Belarus. And McKinsey, facing pressure from current and former staff, is halting existing work with state-owned companies and won’t take on new clients in Russia.

You want the moon? I’ll crash into the moon. Three tons of space junk is about to hit the moon today harder than turning 30. Most experts think the rubble came from a Chinese launch almost 10 years ago. (China has denied this claim.) We won’t know the extent of the damage for a few weeks, since the impact will happen just out of the view of telescopes, but what we do know is that the junk will hit the far side of the moon around 7:30am at 5,800 mph, make a 33–66-foot hole, and give Neil deGrasse Tyson something to say.

NFTs aren’t just for late-night talk show hosts anymore. Ukraine is planning to release its own collection of non-fungible tokens to support its troops defending against invading Russian forces, making it one of the first countries to release NFTs.

Ukraine’s Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced the plan on Twitter, writing, “Every day there are more and more people willing to help Ukraine to fight back. … We will announce NFTs to support Ukrainian Armed Forces soon.” It’s the latest initiative in Ukraine’s crypto-friendly fundraising campaign:

• $50 million worth of crypto has been donated to the nation in the past week.
• A $200,000 CryptoPunk wearing a blue bandana was sent to Ukraine’s wallet on Tuesday.

An additional $270 million has been raised in war bonds, a Web0 security used by nations to raise funds during wartime.

In the same tweet, Fedorov also said Ukraine was canceling its hyped “airdrop” reward. In crypto, an airdrop is a token giveaway typically used to encourage adoption (or, in this case, donations). Ukraine announced the airdrop as a reward to donors on March 2, leading to additional millions in crypto being donated to the country before it was scrapped a day later.

Some critics are calling the besieged country’s sudden cancellation a rug pull. The architect behind El Salvador’s bitcoin bonds tweeted, “War is not an excuse to #shitcoin.”—MK

Stat: At 105.5 meters, or 346 feet, below street level, the Arsenalna station in the Kyiv metro system is the deepest subway station in the world (it takes about five minutes to ride down from the street). Kyiv’s ornate subway stations have become safe havens for residents during the Russian bombardment—as many as 15,000 people are sheltering there, according to the city’s mayor.

Quote: “I don’t want Ukraine’s history to be a legend about 300 Spartans. I want peace.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Vladimir Putin to sit down with him to talk, but not at one of his notoriously long tables (not a joke).

Watch: Russian investment expert Alexander Butmanov sums up the state of its stock market. (Peter Liakhov)

Ask: We discussed above how Western leaders are debating whether to ban all Russian energy exports. Do you support a ban?

Yes

No

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Wild TV clip about Ukraine: Watch until the end.

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Today’s geography puzzle comes to us from The Guardian.

Each of the following words appears either in the middle of or at the end of the name of a country. For example, ACED is in Macedonia. What are the countries?

1. DIVE, 2. DONE, 3. GLAD, 4. HAIL, 5. HELL, 6. LAYS, 7. NAME, 8. OVEN, 9. RUNE, 10. SCAR, 11. SWAN, 12. TENS, 13. WAND.