Forbes - Ukraine's robust startup market

Kevin Dowd and Becca Szkutak
Staff Writers
Russia’s invasion has thrust Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky into the global spotlight as he gives speeches to galvanize international support and inspire a country under attack. Just a few weeks earlier, he was delivering a very different kind of message. “We want to transform Ukraine into a country of startups,” he said one month ago at a Kyiv summit meant to highlight the country’s technological advancement.

The startup market in Ukraine is already a lot bigger than many
outside investors realized.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown the global market how large and robust the Ukraine startup ecosystem is. Getty images.
How big? That’s hard to say, in part because many Ukrainian-founded companies incorporate in the European Union to avoid legal and tax burdens in Ukraine. Wildly divergent estimates of startup investment underscore the uncertainty: Whereas U.S.-based PitchBook recorded only $9.4 million of investment last year, the latest data from Deloitte put the figure at more than $1.68 billion through just November. “That is a huge amount of money for a market that is still relatively unknown to some extent,” says Andrew Wrobel, the founder of Emerging Europe, a platform that helps promote local startup ecosystems. 

Until a few weeks ago, it seemed many people in the startup industry hadn’t known that editing decacorn Grammarly (valued at $13 billion) or recently-public dev-ops platform GitLab (currently trending at $6.4 billion market cap) were founded in Ukraine and keep much of their workforce there, although startup data company Crunchbase lists both as headquartered in San Francisco. Alexandra Balkova, a partner at Estonia-based accelerator Startup Wise Guys, says she and her colleagues have long recognized this dynamic. “We actually joke about the fact that Ukrainians from Grammarly are teaching the whole world how to speak English,” she says. 

Wrobel, Balkova and VC Borys Musielak, the founder of Warsaw-based SMOK Ventures, hope that realizations of the Ukrainian market’s size, strength and ability to produce valuable companies can bring in more outside investors—one of the largest voids in the current system. “That would be amazing for the founders, for the ecosystem,” Musielak says. “I think the resilience they showed, it’s hard to not take notice. It would be mad if they didn’t.”

Despite the murkiness surrounding the size of Ukraine’s startup investment, just a few weeks ago the market was already in the midst of a multi-year period of growth, all four investors whom Forbes spoke with say—growth the Russian invasion has brought to a halt. Whatever happens in the war, the Ukrainian startup market isn’t likely to be overlooked any longer. —B.S. 

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A North Dakota mega-deal
The war in Ukraine is creating chaos across the energy sector. But all that uncertainty didn’t stop Oasis Petroleum and Whiting Petroleum from announcing plans to merge in a $6 billion deal, creating a combined oil producer focused on North Dakota’s Bakken shale patch. 
A pumpjack at work in North Dakota’s Bakken shale patch. 2018 Bloomberg Finance LP
This is the latest example of consolidation in the U.S. energy sector after the market was severely disrupted and major mergers nearly evaporated during the pandemic. Now, producers are once again seeking the benefits and safety rails of scale. Navitas Midstream Partners, Chief Oil & Gas and Desert Peak Minerals have all been the subject of their own billion-dollar takeovers. This one’s a cash-and-stock deal, with current Whiting shareholders owning 53% of the equity and Oasis investors holding the remainder.

With
calls mounting for a ban on Russian oil imports, the U.S. government is canvassing the globe for alternatives. But due to drilling in places like the Bakken, the U.S. is the current world leader in oil production. It generated 18.61 million barrels per day in 2020, per government figures, 20% of the world total. Saudi Arabia was second at 12% and Russia third at 11%. —K.D.
TikTok to term sheets
Is venture trendy? It must be if the TikTok-famous D’Amelio family is getting involved. The television and social media stars have launched 444 Capital, a venture firm targeting $25 million for its first fund. It will back Series A brand-heavy startups in sectors including insurance tech, direct-to-consumer and fintech.
Sisters Charli and Dixie D’Amelio are going hunting for startup investments. Getty Images for Nickelodeon.
On the one hand, this move makes sense for Charli, who at 17 is one of TikTok’s biggest stars, her sister Dixie, 20, and their heavily involved parents, because the family has already dipped a toe into angel investing. Charli invested in teen banking fintech Step last year—and has since been a brand ambassador—and her family also invested in Lightricks, a developer of creator tools. With their fund, the sisters could market future investments to their fans, who include more than 150 million followers on TikTok alone.

But on the flip side, this is another celebrity-founded fund led by people with no experience in an industry already saturated with first-time VCs with no financial or startup background. Let’s see how good they will be at making smart investments.
—B.S.
GameStop’s chairman gets comfortable
Ryan Cohen is a retail guy. He believes he knows how a retail business should work in the 21st century, and the 36-year-old is already building a track record of success. He began by launching Chewy, which quickly became a colossus in the pet-food industry. He’s perhaps most famous for helping to inspire a meme-stock revolution at GameStop; he’s now the chairman of the $7.7 billion company.

Now, another retailer has caught his eye. Cohen revealed this week that he has built up a nearly 10% stake in
Bed Bath & Beyond, and he also suggested a series of changes he believes would best drive value for shareholders. Yesterday, I took a closer look at Cohen’s proposals and how they factor into what has already been a fascinating career. —K.D.
They Said It
“We're not seeing a big slowdown across the M&A market. With equity market volatility, a lot of targets have become a little cheaper.”
—Gerry Walters, head of technology at Wells Fargo, speaking to Bloomberg about the state of M&A
Just The Facts
Spectris, a British maker of precision instruments, is calling off talks to acquire Oxford Instruments, citing market uncertainty caused by the “deplorable events” of the war in Ukraine. Spectris had proposed in late February to pay £1.79 billion ($2.35 billion) for Oxford, which makes microscopes and other lab supplies. “The world has changed since our proposed offer was made,” said Spectris CEO Andrew Heath

Volocopter raised $170 million for its electric helicopters in a Series E financing led by WP Investment with participation from Whysol Investments, Honeywell, btov Partners and Atlantia. The round values the air taxi company at $1.7 billion—a hefty total for a company that won’t start running its services for at least two more years. 

Apollo Global Management agreed to sell Yahoo’s Edgecast content delivery network to Limelight for $300 million in stock. Apollo acquired 90% of Yahoo from Verizon last year for $5 billion, part of a notable pullback at Verizon from digital media. Limelight specializes in video streaming and other content delivery services.

— NFT exchange Immutable announced one of the largest rounds on record by an Australian company, raising $200 million at a $2.5 billion valuation. The round was led by Temasek with participation from Prosus Ventures, ParaFi Capital and Possible Ventures, among others. According to Crunchbase, this was the fifth largest venture round in Australia yet. 

— It’s been a busy past few days at Macquarie. A group led by the Australian investment giant agreed to buy French solar farm developer Reden Solar in a deal worth €2.5 billion ($2.7 billion). Macquarie also signed on to acquire Roadchef, which operates roadside service stations in the U.K., from Antin Infrastructure Partners. And the Financial Times reported that Macquarie and KKR have discussed a potential purchase of U.K. Power Networks that could value the electricity distributor at some £15 billion ($19.7 billion).

— In one more bit of news from Down Under, software billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes and Brookfield Asset Management are abandoning a joint bid to buy AGL Energy after being twice rejected by Australia’s top electricity producer. The two would-be buyers entered a sweetened bid last week worth A$5.4 billion ($4 billion), but AGL deemed the proposal “well below” the company’s worth. 

Pony.ai, a Toyota-backed developer of autonomous driving technology, raised new funding at an $8.5 billion valuation. The company was valued at $5.3 billion in a prior funding round last year. In between those deals, Pony.ai pondered a public offering in the U.S. but changed course amid China’s crackdown on foreign tech IPOs, according to Reuters.

— A SPAC deal is no longer in the works for Tomorrow.io, a weather-prediction startup that had planned to go public at a $1.2 billion valuation. The company and its would-be merger partner said they were abandoning the deal to market conditions. More than 20 SPAC mergers have been terminated since the start of July 2021, per data from SPAC Research, compared to just eight during the 18 months before that. 

— Private equity firm Solace Capital Partners teed up a deal to buy Sun Mountain Sports from Rick Reimers, the company’s founder and longtime owner. This is the first significant outside funding for Sun Mountain, which makes golf bags, apparel and other gear.

Charted
Startups founded by all women are drawing a greater share of funding rounds, but not by much. The number of funding rounds in companies founded by all-women teams has risen every year since 2016, according to data from PitchBook. Last year saw 1,009 deals for all-women founded startups, more than twice as many as in 2016. More than $2.3 billion was invested last year into companies founded by all women, up nearly five-fold from five years ago. 

But despite that progress, the share of overall deal flow that these financings represent rose by just 1.8 percentage points in the same time period—from 4.2% to 6%. In contrast, teams founded by all men raised 68% of the rounds last year.

What We're Reading
Some of the SPACs out there are getting desperate. That’s very good news for investors like Atalaya Capital Management and Apollo Global Management. (Financial Times)

Speaking of SPACs, many recently public companies—most of which took the SPAC route— are now valued at less than the sum of private funding they raised. (Crunchbase)

An inside look at how India’s richest man is taking on Amazon in the battle for retail supremacy. (Reuters)

Jeffrey Katzenberg discussed the failure of his short-term video startup Quibi at the Upfront Summit tech conference last week. Katzenberg acknowledged there wasn’t product market fit for the platform, a shift in tone from when he blamed the pandemic alone for its demise. (Dot.LA)

After a year long battle to shape the company’s future, Carl Icahn is getting out of the Occidental Petroleum business. (The Wall Street Journal)

The Russian-born billionaire founder of fintech Revolut, the U.K.’s most valuable startup, condemned the invasion of Ukraine and said his company would match up to $2 million in donations to Red Cross Ukraine. (Forbes)

Wordle has won over millions of players and sparked an army of imitators. For the game’s creator, it’s the latest in a long line of unique internet projects. (The New Yorker)

Silicon Valley-based Fort Ross Ventures is unsure if it can call capital from its limited partner Sberbank now that it has been sanctioned. Firm founder Victor Orlovski said they aren’t the only Sand Hill Road investor with Russian backing. (PitchBook) 

What To Watch For
Now that a first Microsoft mega-deal has passed regulatory muster, what about the next one? The tech giant closed its $19.7 billion acquisition of voice-technology specialist Nuance Communications last Friday, part of a major push by Microsoft to build out its healthcare business. After putting some extra eyeballs on the deal, regulators in Europe and the U.S. ultimately decided it did not raise serious antitrust issues. Now, attention turns to Microsoft’s planned $68.7 billion purchase of Activision Blizzard, which could face regulatory challenges of its own.
Kevin Dowd
Staff Writer
I am a staff writer at Forbes. I previously wrote for PitchBook, where I created The Weekend Pitch, a weekly newsletter about the private markets. Before that, I covered high school sports in the Pacific Northwest, and I graduated from the University of Washington with a degree in journalism and creative writing. I live in Seattle, where I read a lot of books and play a lot of golf.
Follow me on Twitter.
Becca Szkutak
Staff Writer
I'm a New York-based reporter covering venture capital, startups and investors. I was previously a reporter at the Venture Capital Journal and Private Debt Investor. I graduated from Emerson College in 2017 with a degree in journalism.
Follow me on Twitter at @rebecca_szkutak or send me an email at rszkutak@forbes.com.
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