Finimize - ✂️ Amazon splits its stock

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Today's big stories

US consumer prices rose by their most in more than 40 years in February
Our analyst looks into whether you should buy the stock market dip – Read Now
Amazon's splitting its stock and buying back its own shares

Road Rage

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Thursday showed that US consumer prices rose by the most in more than 40 years last month, and the country’s drivers aren’t exactly happy about it.

What Does This Mean?

That summer road trip Americans were planning is starting to look a lot more expensive, with gas prices 38% higher in February than they were at the same time last year. And if that wasn’t enough to put them off the road, this might be: the price of used cars was 41% higher than the same time last year. In fact, the prices Americans paid for goods and services overall climbed by a higher-than-expected 7.9% – the biggest jump since January 1982. And even when you strip out unstable food and energy prices to get to the “core” inflation, you’re still talking about a nearly 40-year high…

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Cue the rate hikes.
Most economists thought inflation would peak in February, but that was before Russia invaded Ukraine. The effects of the war have already sent retail gas prices – responsible for about a third of February’s monthly increase – up nearly 20% this month, and they might not come down for months. So chances are that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will stick with its plan to raise interest rates when it meets next week – probably in the first in a series of hikes aiming to limit inflation.

The bigger picture: The ECB wavers.
The European Central Bank (ECB) still isn’t ready to follow in the Fed’s footsteps, but it did unexpectedly announce plans on Thursday to withdraw its bond-buying support faster than expected, which could see it ending the program altogether by as soon as the third quarter. The move shows just how concerned the ECB is about the effect of record-high inflation on the region’s economy, and it isn’t the only one: Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 growth outlook for the region from 3.9% to 2.5% this week.

You might also like: How to protect your portfolio in a time of war.

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Analyst Take

Should You Buy The Stock Market Dip?

Stéphane Renevier, Analyst

What’s Going On Here?

The S&P 500 has now slipped 10% from its peak at the start of the year.

That’s not ideal, but it might’ve got you hopeful that there’s some upside potential for US stocks that have been so high for so long.

But here’s the thing: history shows us that any upside after a correction of this size depends heavily on whether we see a recession in the next 12 months.

And while there is a case to be made that we won’t, there are also six very compelling reasons – backed up by six very compelling indicators – that suggest a recession is on the way.

So that’s today’s Insight: whether you should buy the dip right now, and all the reasons you probably shouldn’t.

Read or listen to the Insight here

Here’s a first…

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