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Topline Takeaways

• As Democrats are once again in charge of Rhode Island’s redistricting process, they made minuscule changes to district boundaries.

• Rhode Island’s 2nd congressional district is being targeted by Republicans as a possible House pickup as it has slowly shifted toward the right in recent elections.

District Breakdown

Democrats are in complete control of the redistricting process in Rhode Island as they currently hold a trifecta in state government: majorities in both state houses alongside a Democratic governor. Mapmakers opted to keep district boundaries almost identical to their previous shape: only small changes were made around Providence to balance populations across districts.

What’s surprising is that state Democrats decided against reshaping districts to make the state’s second district more safe for their party. Rep Jim Langevin has represented the district since 2001 and recently announced his retirement. While he won his most recent election by 17 points, that marks the closest race during his tenure. Even worse, Pres. Joe Biden ran 5 points behind Langevin in the 2020 election, further signaling emerging troubles for the Democratic party in western Rhode Island. Republicans see an opening and are ready to to pounce.

The motivating force for Republicans is the existence of Rhode Island’s “Trump Line.” Rhode Island’s recent presidential voting patterns correlate with voters’ distance from the coast. Every single township in Rhode Island with a coast along the Atlantic Ocean voted ultimately supported Pres. Joe Biden. Conversely, a large majority of landlocked townships voted for former president Donald Trump. While the population patterns aren’t in Republican’s favor (coastal townships hold larger populations than those inland) the fact that these Trump supporting townships are clustered in RI-02 is leading the party to make a play in the state.

“On the one hand, candidates can argue it is better to have a Republican in a chamber with a GOP majority so that person can get things done. But Democrats will counter that it matters what gets done, and the state needs someone who reflects public opinion.” -Joseph Fleming, pollster

Leftover Links

• Get to know the wide field of candidates running in the RI-02 primaries.