Forbes - Why is late-stage funding slowing?

Kevin Dowd and Becca Szkutak
Staff Writers
When the pandemic began and triggered shutdowns in March 2020, partners at some venture capital firms started worrying about an overdue correction. Instead, the opposite happened, and the pandemic pushed the market into one of the strongest bull periods on record.

Now, as a geopolitical crisis unfolds and the stock market trends downward, some in the industry say the overheated venture capital climate is finally cooling down.

Startups raised $10 billion less in February compared with January—the first such monthly dip in years, according to data from Crunchbase. Late-stage funding was down 19%, dropping from $41 billion to $33.2 billion, and more insulated early-stage funding slipped 17%, from $18.4 billion to $15.3 billion. But these numbers are being compared to records: Even being down $10 billion, February 2022 still topped February 2021 by 24%. 

Investors tell Forbes that late-stage deal activity—which set records for both deal count and investment volume in 2021—has slowed considerably over the past few weeks. But why? 

One factor is that the booming exit market in 2021 has quieted down significantly. Nearly 200 companies went public via SPAC last year, and a record 296 venture-backed companies publicly listed, according to PitchBook. But performance hasn’t been great since. 

Many highly anticipated public listings have shredded their market cap this year. Crypto-trading platform Coinbase, which went public through a direct listing, started trading at $390 a share; the company was trading at $190 a share at market close Thursday. Clover Health went public via a SPAC in January and started trading at $15.30 a share; it closed Thursday at $3.61. 

Mark Goldberg, a partner at Index Ventures, says that this poor performance—and resulting slash to company valuations—makes the late-stage market less appealing to some of the crossover investors who helped fuel the funding fire in 2021. “Investors are looking to the public markets and saying, ‘Hm, a lot of the late-stage private companies look expensive,’” he says. “The public markets are down 50%-plus, and in the private markets things feel a little bit pricey.”

Some crossover investors have already started to move down the capital stack, too. Tiger Global has made half of the deployments out of its most recent $12.7 billion fund to Series A and Series B companies, according to an investor letter shared with Forbes. Coatue Management also seems to be dipping down; the hedge fund has backed multiple early-stage companies recently, including the $25 million Series A round into fintech Kubecost and the Series A round for game platform PortalOne

Goldberg adds that some of the pullback is also just due to fund logistics. Many firms picked up their pace last year to keep up with the market, but that doesn’t change the set investment periods their funds are on or the number of investments they told LPs they would be making. They might be pulling back just to balance out, he says.

Maybe. The decline in late-stage funding has impacted the market down as far as the Series A stage. But as the investors I spoke with
for my deeper dive into the dynamics told me, this may be exactly what the market needed. —B.S.

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Forging a path to Wall Street
Forge Global completed a $2 billion SPAC merger this week, and public investors responded with a warm reception: Shares of Forge soared as much as 143% during their first few hours of trading. Their spike wasn’t sustained, but they’re still up some 13% from their open.

It was one of the most successful public debuts so far this year. Then again, there hasn’t been much competition. Because—as Becca notes above—whether it’s IPOs or SPAC deals, the rate of companies going public has declined significantly in 2022 from last year’s record-breaking levels, with many would-be debutantes scared off by market volatility and global uncertainty.

But Forge, which operates a market for trading pre-IPO shares in private companies, still took the plunge. I spoke to COO
Jose Cobos about how the company navigated some choppy waters to arrive at its multibillion-dollar debut. —K.D.
Cresco, Columbia and cannabis consolidation
A major merger sprouted up this week in the cannabis space, as Cresco Labs agreed to buy Columbia Care for $2 billion in stock. While both companies are based and operate in the U.S., both are publicly traded in Canada due to America’s federal ban on their industry.
Can a cannabis company become the next big consumer brand? AFP via Getty Images
But legal marijuana is spreading quickly across the U.S., and Cresco and Columbia Care believe this takeover will better position them to snag a significant slice of the market. Charlie Bachtell, the CEO of Cresco, spoke to our colleague Will Yakowicz about how the deal fits into his company’s broader ambitions.

“We focus on cannabis like the consumer packaged good that it is, and having access to 70% of the addressable market is how we turn our brand portfolio into the Miller High Life, Coca-Cola and Johnnie Walker Blue Label of cannabis,” Bachtell told Forbes. —K.D.
How early can you go?
Venture firms are increasingly investing down the capital stack to get into potentially hot companies as early as possible to secure pro rata rights and unlock new sources of alpha. But some firms like At.inc/—the name a nod to backing companies at incorporation—have had this focus from, well, incorporation. 

“We’re not waiting to see traction. We just want to connect to the founders and their vision on what can change in the world,” firm founder Nadav Eylath tells our Forbes colleague Kenrick Cai. “If it’s too early, it’s probably a fit for us."

The strategy has gotten the firm into multiple unicorn companies, including web development tool startup
Netlify and traffic analytics company Placer.ai. At.inc/ just raised $35 million for its second fund, while its first is tracking toward a tenfold return on investment. That figure helps explain the recent race to the bottom.  —B.S.

Another twist in the Morrisons saga
It seemed like the drama was over last October, when Clayton, Dubilier & Rice won a monthslong bidding war for Morrisons and agreed to buy the U.K.’s fourth-largest supermarket chain for £7 billion ($9.2 billion). Now, another roadblock has emerged.
CD&R has to pump the brakes on its Morrisons takeover. Getty Images.
The U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority announced on Thursday that CD&R must address concerns that the takeover could lead to even higher fuel prices in the country, giving the U.S.-based firm five working days to propose divestitures or other remedies. If those don’t satisfy the CMA, it plans to launch an in-depth investigation that could further imperil the deal.

The issue is that CD&R also owns
Motor Fuel Group, which operates 921 gas stations in the U.K., while Morrisons has 339 locations of its own. The CMA identified 121 locations where MFG and Morrisons are the only two nearby suppliers, which could allow for coordinated price hikes. And the topic of fuel affordability in Europe has of course become much more fraught in recent weeks, as the war in Ukraine pushes prices higher and creates long-term uncertainty. —K.D.
They Said It
“I remain a long-term believer in the benefits of globalization and the power of global capital markets. Access to global capital enables companies to fund growth, countries to increase economic development, and more people to experience financial well-being. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades.”
—BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, writing to the company’s shareholders about what he sees as the beginning of a new economic era


Just The Facts
— A leading player in the world of warehouses wants to grow even bigger by taking a bite out of Blackstone. Prologis entered a bid worth more than €21 billion ($23 billion) for the Mileway last-mile logistics business currently owned by Blackstone, per multiple reports. Less than six weeks ago, the private equity giant agreed to recapitalize the European business at a €21 billion valuation. But that deal included a go-shop provision allowing Mileway to pursue competing offers, and now that competition has materialized.

Katie Haun raised $1.5 billion for two funds under her new crypto firm Haun Ventures. This total sets a new record for the largest sum raised by a solo woman GP. Haun raised the fund in four months after spinning out of Andreessen Horowitz—where she was a partner—in December. Her prior firm is an investor in the new endeavor. 

— Tempe, Arizona-based Wealth raised a $16 million seed round for its digital estate-planning platform. The financing was led by Anthos Capital with participation from Bela Juju Ventures. The startup helps individuals keep track of their estates’ assets and edit their estate plans. 

— For its latest acquisition, Apple is turning to fintech. The company purchased Credit Kudos, a British startup that makes software used by banks to assess consumer loan applications, with CNBC reporting a valuation of around $150 million.

Toshiba shareholders were faced with two options for the company’s future on Thursday. They chose neither. Investors voted down a proposal from management to spin off Toshiba’s devices unit, plus another call from activist firm 3D Investment Partners for Toshiba to seek a sale. The famed Japanese company’s future remains unclear—and a lengthy battle over its fate will get even longer.

Glia raised a $45 million Series D round at a $1 billion valuation. The startup offers an integrated customer-service application for banks and adjacent financial service institutions. This latest financing was led by Insight Partners with participation from Wildcat Capital Management and RingCentral Ventures. The company says it has doubled its annual recurring revenue for three years in a row. 

Summit Partners made an investment in 48forty Solutions, which recycles and refurbishes wood pallets used in shipping, joining existing backer Audax Group. The Georgia-based company says it processes more than 300 million pallets per year, and it’s conducted 10 add-on acquisitions since Audax’s initial investment in November 2020.

Yuga Labs, the company behind wildly popular NFT collections Bored Ape Yacht Club and CryptoPunks, raised a $450 million seed round at a $4 billion post-money valuation. The year-old company attracted 36 investors to the round, including large VC investors like a16z crypto and Tiger Global as well as public figures such as Colin Kaepernick and Steve Aoki

— In the last newsletter, we covered a funding round at Ramp. Now, a different player in the corporate-card space is raising new capital: Jeeves announced a $180 million Series C investment at a $2.1 billion valuation. Tencent led the round, and CRV and Andreessen Horowitz also participated.

— A SPAC called Mount Rainier Acquisition Corp. agreed to merge with Israel’s HUB Cyber Security at a $1.28 billion valuation, accompanied by a $50 million PIPE investment. Mount Rainier Acquisition is led by Matthew Kearney, a longtime media executive, and unfortunately seems to have no direct ties to one of America’s most beautiful national parks.

Charted
Late-stage funding is seeing a pullback, but seed-stage financing appears to have remained immune to the market’s froth—certainly if Yuga Labs’ $450 million seed round is any indicator. More than $6.4 billion has been invested in seed rounds in the first two months of 2022, according to Crunchbase—down from the last few months of 2021, but still up considerably from the same period in 2021’s record-breaking year. 

Anecdotally, multiple seed investors have confirmed to Forbes that the seed ecosystem is showing no signs of slowing down. “Our deal flow is as hot as it's ever been, and we are doing as much as we’ve ever done,” says Eric Paley, a partner at seed-focused Founder Collective. “Things have ramped up aggressively.”

What We're Reading
The pandemic hit Rachel Blumenthal’s children’s clothing startup hard. Rockets of Awesome is now looking for a buyer after sources say it stopped paying its vendors in February. (Wall Street Journal)

While Miami and Austin get touted as the new hot spots in tech, Toronto deserves a place on that list. (New York Times)

When people look around the world, they see war, inflation, disease, scandals, schemes and a lot of other people who are a whole lot richer than they are. And all the while, the crypto casino beckons. (n+1)

Qualcomm’s chips have helped build the tech needed to access the metaverse. Now the company is launching a fund to invest in the virtual worlds. (Wall Street Journal

Surveying the state of play as private equity funds gradually accelerate their push into the world of pro sports. (Bloomberg)

The buy now, pay later sector had a moment in the sun last year. For one major player, rising gas prices have led to a new slogan: Fill up now, pay later. (Washington Post)

While public markets soured on China last year, private markets continued all in. But that momentum might not last this year. (Institutional Investor)

For all the word nerds out there, here’s a staggering story of Scrabble serendipity. (Slate)

What To Watch For
Less Styrofoam. TemperPack Technologies, which manufactures recyclable thermal packaging used to ship perishable foods and pharmaceuticals, raised $140 million in a funding round this week led by Goldman Sachs. The company’s primary packaging product, called ClimaCell, is built to replace some of the 80 thousand tons of polystyrene foam (Styrofoam is a brand name) produced in the U.S. each year.
Kevin Dowd
Staff Writer
I am a staff writer at Forbes. I previously wrote for PitchBook, where I created The Weekend Pitch, a weekly newsletter about the private markets. Before that, I covered high school sports in the Pacific Northwest, and I graduated from the University of Washington with a degree in journalism and creative writing. I live in Seattle, where I read a lot of books and play a lot of golf.
Follow me on Twitter.
Becca Szkutak
Staff Writer
I'm a New York-based reporter covering venture capital, startups and investors. I was previously a reporter at the Venture Capital Journal and Private Debt Investor. I graduated from Emerson College in 2017 with a degree in journalism.
Follow me on Twitter at @rebecca_szkutak or send me an email at rszkutak@forbes.com.
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