Forbes - The pandemic’s Dickensian economy

Plus: Did the pandemic make people more generous?

It’s the best of pandemic economic times. It’s the worst of pandemic economic times. The state of the economy right now depends, in part, where you look. The labor market, for example, is doing quite well. The U.S. added back another 431,000 jobs in March, bringing the unemployment rate down to 3.6%, on the verge of a historic low for the country. On the other hand, the strong labor market is likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively on raising interest rates in order to tackle inflation, a tad concerning for humble newsletter editors who were hoping to do some house hunting this spring. 

The converse of the labor market may well be the stock market, which yesterday posted its worst quarter since the pandemic began. Most sectors of the economy are seeing lower stock prices–except for the energy sector, which has posted a stunning rally. A rally that’s thanks to spiking oil prices and one analysts predict is likely to continue. To give you an ideal of the contrast - the S&P index was down 4.9% in the first quarter of this year, but the S&P energy index was up over 40%. Occidental Petroleum stock, the S&P’s top energy performer, was up 98%, thanks in part to a nearly $1 billion investment from Warren Buffet’s firm Berkshire Hathaway. 

Another concerning economic sign is that there’s been a partial yield-curve inversion this week, which can be a sign that a recession is looming. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson expects a full inversion this quarter, which could signal slower economic growth. For the Federal Reserve, fighting inflation without hindering the economy could be a tricky balance, says Wilson, who writes that “will be a challenge to orchestrate a soft landing.”  

Reminder: In case you missed Monday's newsletter, we have reduced the cadence of this of this newsletter to three times a week: Monday and Friday, with the Covid content still being rolled into the weekly InnovationRx newsletter on Wednesdays. Thanks again to all of you for reading.

Do you have comments or questions? Email us at health@forbes.com

More Covid News

Walgreens reported more than $880 million in quarterly profits as customers continued to get vaccinated and boosted against Covid-19.

Yet another randomized, controlled study of ivermectin found the anti-parasitic drug did not reduce the risk of developing severe Covid versus a placebo. 

Covid vaccines that use mRNA technology carry a slight risk of heart complications for some individuals, but far less than the risk of heart complications caused by having a Covid infection, according to a study published Friday by the CDC.

A greater proportion of U.S. high schoolers reported feeling persistently hopeless or contemplating suicide during the Covid-19 pandemic, which has exacerbated an already growing mental health crisis among youth.

The Biden administration on Friday repealed a public health order imposed by former President Donald Trump allowing Border Patrol to limit the number of asylum seekers due to Covid risks. 

Mixed messages, lack of coordination between agencies and other factors contributed to the politicization of public health during the pandemic, argues Forbes contributor Joshua Cohen.

What Else We Are Reading

• Researchers point to a host-directed Covid-19 antiviral that could be combined with existing pandemic treatments (Endpoints News)

• Senate nears $10 billion deal to buy Covid vaccines, therapeutics (Stat)

• Diabetes risk rises after COVID, massive study finds (Nature)