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Election Essentials

• Indiana will hold primaries today for US House as well as for some statewide offices. Since there are only two candidates for Indiana’s US Senate seat (one from each party) the state’s US Senate primaries are largely irrelevant this cycle.

• Ohio will hold primaries today for US House, Senate and its governors race. (Due to issues with their redistricting process, Ohio will not hold elections for many local offices until August.)

• Races to Watch: IN-1, IN-9, OH-7, OH-11, Ohio Governor, Ohio US Senate

• My Take: Ignore Trump’s endorsements. Focus on voters’ anger and how candidates are harnessing it.

What I’m Watching

Donald Trump’s endorsements hang over the primaries like a thick mist, coloring many opinions about the Republican primaries as well as the party’s prospects in November. There have been endless think pieces written about the effect of Trump’s endorsements and what they might mean about his grip on the party. Please ignore this mindless chatter, we’ve been here before. Trump clearly isn’t going anywhere and his endorsement record proves that his blessing certainly does not amount to a divine intervention in elections.

Instead we should be keeping a close eye on candidates who purposefully stoke anger in their opponents across the aisle, especially ones without a primary challenger. Whether they want to “own the libs” or “smear the GQP” these candidates are tapping into some of the most powerful forces shaping our current political atmosphere. We can all agree that Americans are still fighting through an “angry” phase of our history. As we saw in both 2016 and 2020, voters are currently more likely to turn out in opposition of a cause or a person rather than in support. To make matters even worse, those on the fringes (including Donald Trump himself) have begun turning away from voting as a means for driving political change and are increasingly supporting political violence. The politics of anger are very clearly shaping our electoral environment and those who seek to turn up the heat will continue driving our conversations. Keep that in mind as we walk through today’s major primary races.

Indiana’s US House Primaries

Indiana’s Democratic voters will have ample choice on their primary ballots for US House as nearly every Indiana congressional district has several Democrats competing for their party’s nomination. Unfortunately, their prospects for actually winning seats in November is incredibly slim: only two seats lean toward Democrats (IN-1 and IN-7) and all other seats favored Republicans by at least 15 points in the 2020 election.

Meanwhile on the Republican side, five Republican incumbents running for re-election will face no primary challenger. Three of these unchallenged incumbents (Reps. Banks, Pence, and Walorski) voted to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Victoria Spartz, the unchallenged representative of IN-5, was one of the first US officials to visit Ukraine (she has family there.)

Spotlight Races: Much of the attention on Indiana’s US House races has been focused on the Republican primaries in IN-1 and IN-9. There are a whopping nine candidates running to fill the open seat in IN-9 vacated by Rep. Trey Hollingsworth. Meanwhile, IN-1’s Republican primary is turning heads as the current frontrunner is Jennifer-Ruth Green, an army reservist who would become the only Republican Black woman in Congress if elected.

Indiana’s US Senate Primary

Incumbent Senator Todd Young (R) is running for a second-term and no Republican candidates have emerged to challenge him. The same goes for the sole Democratic candidate: Thomas McDermott Jr. He is currently serving as the mayor of Hammond, IN and saw no challengers emerge in the primary. As of now, both are considered their party’s presumptive nominees and are expected to face off in November.

Ohio’s US House Primaries

In Ohio, a total of six incumbents (roughly 40% of the state’s US House seats) will face no primary challenger and are practically guaranteed a spot on the ballot in November. That includes two Democrats and four Republicans. Among these unchallenged incumbents is the infamous Jim Jordan, one of the founding members of the House Freedom Caucus and someone who’s been implicated by the investigation into the January 6 insurrection. Jordan’s district, OH-4, supported Trump by a whopping 36-point margin and is expected to send him back to Congress again in November. Not all unchallenged incumbents are expecting smooth campaigns for the general election as Ohio’s new congressional districts have dramatically altered the landscape in some districts. While OH-9 is currently represented by Democrat Marcy Kaptur, the new shape of her district turns what was previously a Biden-supporting district into one that ultimately favored Trump in 2020 by 3 points.

Spotlight Races: On the Democratic side, all eyes are on the rematch in OH-11 where incumbent Rep. Shontel Brown will face off against former state senator Nina Turner for a second time. The two previously ran against each other for the seat in a special election in 2021. That election served as a proxy war between the two wings of the Democratic party with Brown representing the “establishment” wing and Turner standing for the “progressive” wing. Both have since doubled down on their positioning and have garnered national endorsements: Turner has received support from both Bernie Sanders and AOC while Brown has received an official endorsement from President Biden. Many are viewing this primary face-off as a national bellwether for the progressive wing as their candidates have struggled to win in recent elections.

For Republicans not already focused on Ohio’s busy statewide races, many are watching OH-7 with bated breath. Trump has continued his pattern of supporting unsavory candidates with his endorsement of Max Miller, a former aide who has been accused of physically abusing his ex-girlfriend. Miller now stands as the frontrunner of this race after incumbent Rep. Bob Gibbs withdrew from the race in early April. If Miller wins the nomination, there’s a chance the controversy surrounding his past relationship could create an opening for Democrats: the new OH-7 broke for Trump by only 9 points in 2020.

Ohio’s Gubernatorial Primary

Governor Mike DeWine is running for re-election but that hasn’t stopped his Republican challengers. After serving a contentious term during the pandemic, DeWine has faced criticism from the far-right for COVID restrictions and his willingness to acknowledge Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 presidential election. While he has maintained his popularity among Ohio voters (he has a net positive approval rating and is only 4 points underwater among Ohio Democrats) his challengers have garnered attention for their willingness to support more extreme stances on Republican topics. (One candidate even tweeted a photo of himself standing in front of a sign with a swastika. The photo has since been removed but can still be viewed here.) If DeWine can make it through today’s primary, most expect him to win the general election in November. Although if one of his more right-leaning challengers win the nomination, that could provide an opening for one of the two Democratic primary challengers.

Democrats currently have the choice between former Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley or current Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley for their nomination. Since the two are incredibly similar when it comes to policy their identities may play an outsized role in this year’s primary. Ohio Democrats have a long history of nominating moderate white men as a supposedly “safe” campaign strategy, yet the only one to win a statewide election since 2011 has been Sen. Sherrod Brown. (The state’s current Democratic US House delegation exposes this failing strategy even further: only 1 of Ohio’s 4 Democratic representatives is a white man.) While nominating John Cranley would likely continue this (losing) trend, Democratic voters may finally opt for a different type of statewide candidate as Nan Whaley models a new path forward.

“Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result — well, there is a saying for that.” -Dayton mayor Nan Whaley

Ohio’s US Senate Primary

This will be the big race of the night. Much attention has been put toward Ohio’s US Senate race as Republican Rob Portman announced his retirement, creating an open seat. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Tim Ryan is expected to sail to victory tonight as he is the only primary candidate who’s previously served as an elected official. The Republican field is packed to the brim and has recieved national attention for the past month. I’ll spare you the details of this race, there are more than enough sources that have been covering this race for months on end. The big question on everyone’s minds: how “Trumpy” will the Republican primary winner be?

Leftover Links

• Learn more about Jennifer-Ruth Green, an army reservist who would become the only Republican Black woman in Congress if elected.

• Trump has continued his pattern of supporting unsavory candidates with his endorsement of Max Miller: a former aide who has been accused of physically abusing his ex-girlfriend

• Ohio will be forced to hold a “split” primary this year. What does that even mean?