May 4, 2022

Don't say it. Don't say it. Don't say it. *Sighs.* May the Fourth be with you!

Here's a wild Star Wars fact: George Lucas floated the idea of a different ending to Return of the Jedi in which Luke turned to the dark side. His idea was to have Luke don his dying dad's helmet, proclaiming, "Now I am Vader!" Alas, it didn't make it past the writers' room... 

― Key Stories

NATO Expansion?
Overview

• Finland and Sweden are planning to join NATO, reports say. Both countries’ leaders met with Germany’s leader, who endorsed their membership
• Both countries have long been wary of joining NATO for fear of antagonizing Russia
• NATO is the US-led military alliance originally formed to counter the USSR in the Cold War. NATO members cooperate militarily and are obligated to defend other members who come under attack
• Russia has warned of deploying additional nuclear weapons if the countries join. Finland is expected to apply for membership on May 12; Sweden days later

Alabama Prison Break
Overview

• A manhunt is underway for an accused murderer who escaped from an Alabama prison, and a corrections officer accused of helping him
• The pair went missing Friday, which was supposed to be the corrections officer’s last day at work. She had sold her home and was planning to retire
• Police now believe she helped 38-yo Casey White, accused of breaking into a woman’s home and stabbing her to death, escape while taking him to a mental health evaluation
• On Tuesday, an Alabama sheriff said that inmates reported the duo had a “special relationship”

SCOTUS Investigates Leak
Overview

• The Supreme Court is investigating the leak that provided Politico with a draft decision of the Court’s Roe v. Wade opinion on Monday
• The leaked doc, authored in February, suggests the court will overturn Roe v. Wade, which has protected abortion access in the US since 1973
• Many Democratic politicians said the leak should galvanize Americans to protest; many Republicans said the leaker undermined the Court's integrity
• This was the first leak of a Supreme Court draft opinion in the modern US; the Court called the doc “authentic” but not “final.” A final decision was expected in June

So Long, Farewell, We Quit
Overview

• A record 4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March
• There were 11.5M job openings in March, equivalent to 1.9 jobs available per unemployed American. The pre-pandemic figure was 1.2
• The numbers suggest that the “Great Resignation” isn't letting up. Low-income workers have been moving jobs the most, using a tight labor market to secure higher wages and more benefits
• In part to cope with labor shortages, the US government announced Tuesday that immigrant workers’ work permits would automatically be extended 1.5 years

See yesterday's results below the Wrap!

 Popcorn

Culture & Sports

• Broadcast king: CBS clinched its 14th consecutive year as the top TV network in primetime ratings. NBC, however, won the key 18-49 demo
• Flagrant 2, red team: The US has declared that WNBA star Brittney Griner has been "wrongfully detained" by the Russian government
• Rolling in the depp: The judge rejected Amber Heard's motion to dismiss her ex-husband Johnny Depp's $50M defamation lawsuit 

• California shrinkin': New data show that California's population has declined for the second year in a row, falling to its 2016 level
• Israel developers are planning to install a zipline in Jerusalem. They also envision a pedestrian bridge and cable car in the holy city
• Crypto pump: Equinox's fitness clubs in NYC will accept cryptocurrency payments for their annual membership fees
• Zoo tragedy: A wild fox broke into a DC zoo and reportedly killed 25 flamingoes and 1 Northern pintail duck

― Roca Wrap

A Newsletter Exclusive

Should abortion be a constitutionally protected right?

Since Roe v. Wade in 1973, it has been; if Roe is overturned, it won’t be.

In 1969, Norma McCorvey — who took the pseudonym "Jane Roe" – became pregnant with her third child. She wanted an abortion, but Texas, where she lived, prohibited them in most circumstances. She filed a federal lawsuit, alleging that the Texas restrictions were unconstitutional.

The federal court that heard the lawsuit ruled in McCorvey’s favor, declaring Texas’ abortion laws unconstitutional. Texas then appealed directly to the Supreme Court, the US’ highest court whose decisions supersede those of any lower court. In 1973, the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 in McCorvey’s favor: The Constitution’s 14th amendment guarantees a “right to privacy,” the Court said, and that protects a woman’s “fundamental” right to an abortion.

The Court said that governments must balance a woman’s rights with those of a fetus. To do so, it set up trimester guidelines: In the first trimester, states couldn’t prohibit abortions; in the second, states could regulate but not ban abortions; in the third, at which point the Court deemed the fetus viable, states could ban abortions. 

At the time of the ruling, 30 states outlawed abortion totally; the others had liberalized their laws in the preceding years. The ruling led to 46 states having to change their abortion laws.

Roe became a lightning rod: Many celebrated the decision as a significant step for women’s rights. Abortion was something women should have access to, they argued, and the decision would improve women’s privacy, personal freedom, and bodily integrity.

Many others argued that the decision was judicial activism, whereby the court didn’t just rule, but legislated. The constitution didn’t mention abortion, the argument went, so it should have been left for states to decide, as they had been doing. Some who supported abortion rights also thought the privacy justification was too much of a stretch. 

The Supreme Court ruled on abortion again in 1992, in Planned Parenthood v. Casey. In that ruling, the Court said that women should be able to receive pre-viability abortions without “undue interference” by the state. While some of the assenting justices questioned Roe’s reasoning, they argued that maintaining the court’s legitimacy required respecting Roe and its “central holding” – that women had the right to abort a pre-viable fetus.

Casey also called for the abortion issue to be settled, and for the “contending sides…to end their national division.” 

But that didn’t happen: 26 states have asked the Court to overturn Roe or Casey, including Mississippi, which passed a law banning most abortions after 15 weeks. The Court – which currently has a 6-3 majority – has been deliberating on that since December, when it heard arguments for and against it. It was expected to release its decision in June or July.

On Monday, though, for the first time in modern US history, a draft decision was leaked to Politico. In the opinion, conservative justice Samuel Alito writes that “Roe was egregiously wrong from the start,” and that “it is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.” 

“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” Alito writes.

The decision won’t be final until it is published, likely by July. Justices can, and sometimes do, change their opinions late in deliberations. 

If it is finalized, states will have the right to legislate their own abortion restrictions. An estimated 26 states – mostly in the south, midwest, and west – will ban or substantially reduce abortion access. Abortions are already de facto limited in some of these states, including 6 that each have just 1 abortion clinic. Abortion access will remain unaffected in other states. 

Abortion providers expect a surge in abortions carried out with abortion pills, which can be ordered online and account for over 50% of US abortions. They point to when a Texas law took effect that restricted abortions after 6 weeks: While clinic-performed abortions fell by 50%, abortions declined by only 10%. The difference was made up by women traveling to neighboring states or ordering pills.

Traveling to get an abortion may get harder: In parts of the south and midwest, people will likely have to travel through multiple states to reach places where abortion is unrestricted. Some companies – including Amazon, Apple, and Yelp – have said they will cover travel fees for their workers. 

For now, though, laws remain unchanged. The final decision is due in the coming months.  

― Hump Day Pics

 Roca Clubhouse
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― Final Thoughts