Hi all. These primary guides are getting hefty. As more states begin holding their primaries over the coming weeks, I’m beginning to bite off more than I can chew by previewing all of the day’s races. Instead, I’m going to use these primary guides to focus primarily on US House races to dive deeper into the 2022 House outlook. (I’ll still touch on recent senate and gubernatorial primaries in my results takeaways posts.) Hopefully this can help “re-center” these guides and prevent them from becoming too unwieldy.

TL;DR

US House Primaries to Watch: ID-2, KY-3, NC-1, NC-11, NC-13, OR-6, PA-17

• Idaho’s congressional primary in ID-2 is emblematic of the Republican party’s hard-right turn in recent years.

• Kentucky Democrats have an important choice to make as the state’s lone House Democrat is retiring from his Louisville-anchored seat.

• North Carolina’s primaries show the state’s competitive political landscape with several open House seats and swing districts.

• Oregon voters are also experiencing a white-hot primary season as nearly every district will hold primaries with multiple candidates.

• Pennsylvania is a bit of a primary wasteland as 13 of the state’s 18 House incumbents are running unopposed in their respective primaries.

Idaho’s US House Primaries

Idaho’s only US House primary will be for Republican voters in ID-2 as every other race will only have one candidate on the ballot. (Incumbent Rep. Russ Fulcher of ID-1 will face no primary challengers.) This primary will see incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson face off against four male challengers, nearly all of whom are running to his right. The race is emblematic of the hard-right turn the state’s conservative politics have taken since the Trump administration. Not only have candidates committed to supporting a border wall and defending the second amendment, there have also been calls for federal election reform and even for our country to “stop interfering in this whole Ukraine, Russia, NATO situation.” (yikes…)

Meanwhile both Democratic candidates for Congress are women: Kaylee Peterson is running in ID-1, Wendy Norman will face the winner of the Republican primary in ID-2.

Kentucky’s US House Primaries

The Democratic primary for KY-3 is Kentucky’s marquee race of the night. Democratic Incumbent Rep. John Yarmuth has announced his retirement, creating an open seat in Louisville for the first time in 16 years. The race is between two state legislators: Scott McGarvey and Attica Scott. Both candidates support progressive ideals including federally decriminalizing marijuana, supporting green energy alternatives and fighting for stronger abortion protections. Since the ideological gap between the candidates is small, their identities are likely to play a major role in the outcome. Attica Scott is a Black woman known locally for her commitment to underrepresented minority groups. Scott McGarvey is a white man known for working across the aisle in the state’s Republican-majority Senate. The district they’re running in is a little over 20% Black and tilted toward Democrats by roughly 20 points in the 2020 election. Expect whoever wins this progressive primary to win the general election in November.

Primaries in KY-6 are worth a watch as well as its just barely a swing district, ultimately voting for Trump by only 10 points in 2020. Incumbent Rep. Andy Barr is being labeled a “career politician” by his Republican challenger Derek Petteys who promises to hold himself to a self-imposed term limit if he ultimately wins the House seat. Democrats are choosing between Geoff Young, who’s run for office five times previously and Chris Preece, a high school teacher who was motivated to run for office for the first time after witnessing the January 6 insurrection.

Voters in Kentucky’s first and fourth congressional districts will not head to the polls as neither party fielded more than one candidate in these districts. Since both districts lean toward Republicans by more 30 points, the incumbents (Rep. James Comer and Rep. Thomas Massie) are widely expected to beat their Democratic challengers in November.

North Carolina’s US House Primaries

North Carolina’s primaries are competitive across the board as both parties fielded multiple primary candidates in most of the state’s districts. The race that’s received the most national attention is the campaign to unseat incumbent Rep. Madison Cawthorn of NC-11 as both parties have fought hard to prevent him from getting re-elected.

Black activists will want to keep a close eye on NC-1 as former Congressional Black Caucus chairman G.K. Butterfield announced his retirement. The state’s first congressional district holds a nonwhite majority and is also considered a swing district, supporting Joe Biden by only an 8 point margin in 2020. As a result, four Democrats and a whopping eight Republicans are running in the primaries for this seat. The Democratic field has coalesced around abortion as its defining issue while Republicans are roiling from a surprise domestic violence scandal.

The state’s 13th congressional district holds all of the ingredients of a high-profile primary. The district is considered ‘brand new’ after redistricting as it was created by cobbling together pieces of the state’s old 2nd, 7th and 8th districts. The new district would have only supported Joe Biden by a measly 1.8 points in the 2020 election, meaning this seat is truly up for grabs for either party. Republicans are focusing on Trump’s endorsement of Bo Hines, a former college football player, to see how much sway the former president has over North Carolina Republican voters. Democrats are witnessing a state senate face-off as former colleagues Sam Searcy and Wiley Nickel spar over their records in the state legislature.

And last but most certainly not least: American Idol runner-up Clay Aiken gives Democrats some star power in the crowded field to replace retiring incumbent Rep. David Price in NC-4.

Oregon’s US House Primaries

Oregon’s newest congressional district, OR-6, has captured national attention with its wide field of candidates and their eye-popping campaign donations. The Republican field is marked by its centrism with frontrunners Ron Noble and Nate Sandvig both attempting to distance themselves from the MAGA-wing of the party. Meanwhile the Democratic primary is becoming a referendum on big money politics as $8.8 million of outside money has already been spent on just two of the nine candidates running. (An outsized portion of this money has come from “crypto-bro” Sam Bankman-Fried.)

Republicans are keeping an eye on primaries in the state’s fifth district as its their best pick-up opportunity come November. Voters in this district supported Joe Biden by only 9 points and the Republican primary frontrunner is Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. If elected in November, she would become the first Hispanic person to represent Oregon in Congress. In order to make history she’ll likely have to beat Democratic incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the general election as he’s already outspent his lone primary challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner.

Pennsylvania’s US House Primaries

Pennsylvania’s primary landscape is a bit of a democratic wasteland. To start, a total of 13 of the state’s 18 House incumbents are running unopposed in their respective primaries. To make matters worse, both parties failed to field at least one candidate in every congressional district. That ultimately means that two Republican House incumbents, Rep. John Joyce (R, PA-13) and Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R, PA-14), may be “re-elected” without facing ANY challenger at any point in the 2022 midterms. It also guarantees that Philadelphia’s House seat PA-3 will be represented by whichever Democrat wins the upcoming primary.

While several of the state’s districts will receive the spotlight in November for their status as swing districts the only truly competitive House primary in Pennsylvania is happening in PA-17, just outside of Pittsburgh. This seat is being vacated by Conor Lamb as he runs for Senate and is also a swing district. Democrats will watch Iraq war veteran Chris Deluzio face off against Sean Meloy, who would become the state’s first openly gay congressman if elected. Republicans are expected to vote based on candidates’ views on abortion as it represents the ideological differences in this three-way race.