Hey y’all. We’re finally nearing the pointy end of my state-by-state redistricting review! There are only five states left to cover , then we can finally get into the fun stuff. This virtual tour across the country has helped me discover so many interesting political stories that I’ll be diving into very soon. Now that I understand the dynamics in individual states, I’ll be drawing national connections across states to show us where the 2022 midterms are headed.

So if you’re eager to hear about the failures of supposedly independent redistricting commissions, want a full rundown of the ways SCOTUS has tilted (and tainted) the redistricting process, or just want a more high-level review of rural districts or nonwhite districts, stick with Battleground!! That’s all coming through the pipeline very soon. Bringing it back to today, we’re diving into a pretty major state for Democrats: let’s look at Illinois!

Topline Takeaways

• Democrats were absolutely ruthless with their redistricting of Illinois as the national party relied on Illinois Democrats to improve the party’s chances in US House elections.

• Democrats’ new map uses partisan gerrymandering to net the party an additional House seat while the state loses a House seat in reapportionment.

• Much of the changes are focused on the Downstate region outside of Chicago.

Who’s In Control

Democrats had complete control over Illinois’ redistricting process this cycle. The state lets its legislature draw maps which must be approved by the governor. Since Democrats hold majorities in both state houses alongside a Democratic governor, the party was able to completely shut Republicans out of the redistricting process.

New District Breakdown

Democrats were absolutely ruthless with their redistricting of Illinois. The national party relied on Illinois Democrats to improve the party’s chances in US House elections and they most certainly delivered. (The state is one of only five nationwide where Democrats had complete control over redistricting.) The resulting map blatantly uses partisan gerrymandering to nab extra seats for Democrats, specifically in the state’s Downstate region.

The new shapes of IL-13 and IL-17 deliberately snake through Illinois in a search for Democratic voters. IL-13 resembles a frustrating “highway district:” a long and skinny congressional district that widens to capture specific cities (in this case, Champaign and Springfield) and shrinks in more rural areas to allow the district to travel further. Meanwhile, the new IL-17 was clearly designed to capture much of the state’s northwestern cities as it captures nearly all of the metro areas of Rockford, Peoria and Bloomington without including much of the rural area sitting between them. The resulting changes flip two previously Trump-leaning seats to Biden-supporting districts with IL-13 shifting nearly 15 points to the left.

These Downstate changes have significant impacts on Illinois’ US House delegation. The newly blue IL-17 helps improve Rep. Cheri Bustos’s prospects for re-election as prior to redistricting she represented voters who also voted for Donald Trump in 2020. The new shapes of IL-15 and IL-16 also forced four Republican incumbents into two districts. Anti-Trump firebrand Rep. Adam Kizinger handed in his resignation after being notified that he’d be facing Rep. Darin LaHood in a Republican primary. Conversely, neither incumbent dropped out of the race in IL-15 and Rep. Mary Miller recently beat Rep. Rodney Davis in an incumbent v. incumbent primary. (Shortly afterwards, she gave the infamous “historic victory for white life” quote that will haunt her into the general election.)

When looking at the Chicago metropolitan area, the biggest change to the city’s districts involve grouping more of Chicago’s exurban neighborhoods like Cary and Elgin into districts that stretch toward the urban core. Under the new map, many of the Chicago area’s districts have been transformed into long tendrils that bring together deep-blue urban areas with more politically moderate suburban neighborhoods. Democrats are likely playing the long game with these changes: several of Chicago’s Democratic districts became slightly less safe for the party in order to shore up districts like IL-3. The old IL-3 was on the cusp of becoming a swing district, supporting Biden by only a 12-point margin in 2020. The new map shifts IL-3 a whopping 30 points to the left, bringing it in line with many of the other Chicago districts.

Leftover Links

• Learn more about IL-3: Illinois’ first Hispanic-majority congressional district.

• Not all Democrats emerged from redistricting unscathed. See how redistricting led to an incumbent v. incumbent primary in IL-6.