July 14, 2022

Today is "Shark Awareness Day!" We hope you find comfort in the fact that sharks kill just 5 people on average per year worldwide. In comparison, falling coconuts claim about 30x that number. It remains a mystery why Stephen Spielberg didn't choose falling coconuts as the villain for his 1975 blockbuster. 

In today's edition:

• Netflix preps for ads
• Iguana hiding... where?
• Prohibition, Pt. 2

 Key Stories

Ukraine & Russia Near Grain Deal

Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN are set to sign a deal next week to allow grain exports to resume

• Since the invasion, Ukraine — one of the world’s top grain exporters — has been unable to export 1.5-2M tons of grain, pushing global food prices higher
• The agreement, which both countries’ leaders must still approve, is a breakthrough after weeks of diplomacy aimed at avoiding a global food crisis
• Per the deal, Russia will let Ukrainian ships safely export grain through the Black Sea. Turkey, which controls the entrance to the sea, will monitor Ukrainian ships for weapons smuggling for Russia

• As of print, global wheat prices are at $814/bushel, 21% higher than a year ago. At its peak in May, a bushel was up to $1,281 – 90% higher than last July. Those prices have led to exorbitantly higher food prices in many poor countries

Netflix Partners With Microsoft For Ads

Netflix has partnered with Microsoft to spearhead a new low-cost, ad-driven streaming plan

• In March, Netflix posted its first loss of subscribers in over a decade. Its stock has fallen 70%+ in the past year as it has struggled to maintain steady growth
• Netflix hopes that a cheaper, ad-driven subscription plan will restart growth. It announced that it has chosen Microsoft to lead its advertising due to its “proven ability to support our advertising needs”
• Netflix has stated that it intends for the ads to be “less disruptive” than traditional TV, although it has not yet specified how many ads it will run per hour

Inflation at Another 40-Year High

The US recorded a 9.1% annual inflation rate in June, exceeding analysts’ predictions of an 8.8% increase

• It’s the highest inflation rate since 1981, and means average prices were 9.1% higher this June than last
• Energy prices drove much of the inflation, as did food and housing. Since June 2021, eggs cost 33% more; airfare 34%; electricity 14%; and restaurants 8%
• Last month, the Federal Reserve, the US’ central bank, increased interest rates by 0.75% — the most since 1994 — in an attempt to slow inflation. The 9.1% rate means the Fed will likely raise rates again, which will increase the likelihood of recession

Yosemite Sequoias Survive Fire

Yosemite’s famous sequoia trees narrowly survived a wildfire and may now be safer than before

• Sequoias, which grow up to 200 ft (61 m), were once thought to be fire-resistant. But record-breaking wildfires in the US West over the past 2 years have burned approximately ⅕ of all known sequoias
• A fire that started last Thursday burned through a California forest, threatening 500+ sequoias. Some of the trees were thousands of years old
• The fire was contained after burning much of the overgrowth – likely leaving the trees safer from fires than before

• In May, the US Forest Service announced a nationwide ban on "prescribed burns" – fires intentionally lit to burn overgrowth and prevent wildfires – after one in Nevada grew out of control. In the past, "prescribed burns" were effectively used in Yosemite and elsewhere to lower wildfire risk

Trade Events Like Stocks

As the dominoes keep falling, markets tumble… except for one asset class

• Traders are uneasy as the past months have seen gas prices double, global supply chain slowdowns, the highest inflation in 40 years, and quantitative tightening from the Fed
• With portfolios down across the board, people are turning to alternative investment types. Last month, we came across a platform covered in Bloomberg called Kalshi, and we had to share it with you all
• Kalshi has created an asset class called “Event Contracts.” An event contract is just a "Yes" or "No" share tied to a specific future event — think, "will a recession begin by Q2 2022?" As the event becomes more likely to happen, the value appreciates

• This powerful market structure enables you to capitalize on your predictions without worrying about noise in the stock market, and Kalshi has worked with regulators at the CFTC for 4 years to make this tool commonplace. Get priority access today!

• Eu, that’s gross: The Euro dipped below the US dollar for the first time since 2002. A Euro is now worth $0.9998
• No royal treatment: 10 unvaxxed Kansas City Royals players, including 4 top hitters, will not be able to play in Toronto for their upcoming series
• Listening but not Heard: Amber Heard’s bid for a mistrial was shot down after a judge found “no evidence of fraud or wrongdoing”

 What do you think?

See yesterday's results below the Wrap!

 Roca Wrap

By the late 1920s, the US’ nationwide ban on alcohol – Prohibition – was clearly failing.

Prohibition took effect in 1920, a year after the passage of the 18th Amendment. Intended to reduce drinking and crime, it inadvertently resulted in a number of powerful gangs supplying alcohol to millions. 

These gangs had resources and tactics that often outmatched those of the government. “Rum runners'' imported huge quantities of liquor from abroad, often toying with the Coast Guard by staying just outside US territorial waters but within sight of their pursuers. In New York and Chicago, gangs such as the Mafia created huge crime syndicates that paid policemen, judges, and politicians to turn a blind eye. Police realized that if they were going to make any real progress, they had to go after the crime bosses who held the gangs together.

For them, there was no bigger target than an Italian American from Chicago named Al Capone.
 
By 1927, Capone had consolidated control over a gang known as the Chicago Outfit and was making millions. He gained a reputation for violence, known for tactics such as the “St. Valentine’s Day Massacre,” when he ordered the execution of 7 rival gang members on Valentine’s Day 1929. By that time, he had paid or scared off most of his Chicago rivals. 

The US government decided to make an example out of Capone. If they could take down the top dog, maybe they could scare other gangs into submission.

In 1929, the US Department of Justice appointed Eliot Ness as a special agent to the Chicago Prohibition Bureau. Ness gathered a team known as the “Untouchables,” named that because they couldn’t be bribed. After years of undercover investigations, Ness’s team finally gathered enough evidence to arrest Capone for federal tax evasion and other minor crimes. Capone was sentenced to 11 years in prison, after which health issues would force him to retire.

Yet the success proved the feebleness of prohibition: In Capone’s absence, new organizations emerged to conduct the same illegal behavior. Taking down Chicago’s top gangster did little to decrease bootlegging.

By 1932, Congress faced growing pressure to end prohibition. It was the Great Depression and the US had bigger problems, and none of the promised benefits had materialized: Alcohol consumption was approaching pre-Prohibition levels, and crime and incarceration rates were soaring. One former top prohibition prosecutor admitted that hard liquor could be easily purchased “at almost any hour of the day or night, either in rural districts, the smaller towns, or the cities.”
 
Soon after taking office in 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt repealed parts of the Volstead Act, which outlawed alcohol stronger than .5% ABV. 9 months later, the 21st Amendment officially ended prohibition in the US. 

While prohibition ended quickly, though, its impact didn't. It made organized crime a major part of American life for the first time, and gangsters soon became cultural icons, particularly as Hollywood began telling their stories. 

So while Prohibition only lasted 14 years, its consequences are still felt 100 years later.

 Roca Clubhouse

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 Final Thoughts

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