Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - ‘Delusional’ predictions

Data due this week could show the US economy contracted for a second straight quarter. While that’s one way to define a recession, the Biden administration argues it’s a technical distinction that misses the bigger picture: The US added more than a million jobs in the second quarter. Oil prices meanwhile have dropped significantly since last month (though they were up Monday). On Wall Street, strategists disagreed over the impact weaker economic data will have on the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighting strategy. Morgan Stanley says it’s too early to expect the central bank to stop tightening, which suggests stocks have further to fall. JPMorgan says bets that inflation has peaked foretell a Fed pivot, and a better picture for equities in the second half. As for Nouriel Roubini—the economist of doom himself—he warns that those predicting anything other than a deep downturn are “delusional.”  —Natasha Solo-Lyons

Bloomberg is tracking the coronavirus pandemic and the progress of global vaccination efforts.

Stocks whipsawed as traders braced for earnings from several technology bellwethers. Tech shares weighed on the market ahead of results from the likes of Apple and Google’s parent Alphabet. Ten-year US yields climbed back above 2.8%, following a two-day plunge of almost 30 basis points. Here’s your markets wrap.

It’s becoming more clear that Mike Pence could become Donald Trump’s rival for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. The former vice president—in the spotlight thanks to his central role in blocking Trump’s alleged Jan. 6, 2021 coup attempt—is getting a one-day head start on rallying the GOP base in Washington before a Trump speech there. 

Mike Pence  Photographer: Micah Green/Bloomberg

A former Goldman Sachs banker was accused of passing insider trading information to a squash buddy, part of a group of nine people charged Monday by federal prosecutors in New York.

The war in Ukraine may be entering a new stage as long-range rocket systems supplied by the US disrupt Russia’s grinding advance in the eastern Donbas region, and open the door for a possible counteroffensive.

Russia plans to curb natural gas flows on the Nord Stream pipeline—less than a week after bringing the link back on line—jolting European energy markets and escalating concerns over a supply crunch on the continent this winter.

Vladimir Putin. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

Hybrid work reduced attrition rates at a large technology firm by 35% and improved self-reported work satisfaction scores—with no negative impact on performance ratings or promotions, according to a new study.

Silicon Valley entrepreneur and philanthropist Nicole Shanahan emerged this weekend at the center of a rift between two of the world’s richest men, Sergey Brin and Elon Musk. 

 Nicole Shanahan Photographer: Ian Tuttle/Getty Images North America

• Yosemite wildfire burns out of control, forcing thousands to flee.
• Bloomberg Opinion: Trump is plotting to blow up the US constitution.
• Bloomberg Opinion: London paid a record price to dodge a blackout.
• Bloomberg Opinion: Zuckerberg’s biggest bet might not pay off.
• But he just sold his San Francisco home for a record $31 million.
• Porsches postponed by buggy software cost VW’s CEO his job.
• NFL starts its own mobile streaming service for $4.99 a month.

  San Francisco Is Racing for a Comeback

  Bad news just keeps coming for San Francisco, already one of the US cities hit hardest economically by the pandemic. The tech boom that supercharged the region’s economy is careening to an end. Local giants like Apple and Google plan to slow hiring, while Tesla and Lyft have cut jobs already. The notoriously pricey housing market is rapidly cooling. And office workers and tourists have been slow to return to the city’s downtown.

  

  Pedestrians on California Street in the financial district of San Francisco on July 12.  Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

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