Food for Agile Thought #354: Agile Forecasting, Winning Product Strategies, Measuring Trust

Welcome to the 354th edition of the ‘Food for Agile Thought’ newsletter, shared with 35,689 peers. My name is Stefan Wolpers.

This week, we analyze forecasting challenges in epic breadth, from avoiding story points to rolling wave forecasts. Also, we illustrate and quantify the impact of unfinished work to help you convince your team to ‘stop starting and start finishing,’ and we delve into decision-making practices as a group, from reversible to expensive or irreversible decisions.

Then, we listen to Lenny Rachitsky interviewing Melissa Perri on what to do when your strategy is not working: what are the signs, and how can you change direction? Moreover, we point out that ‘most strategies are a collection of assumptions,’ from certainty levels to competitor behavior. Also, we enjoy ten video clips expressing precisely that product/market-fit feeling Marc Andreessen described years ago.

Finally, we share strategies to identify and work through design and engineering conflicts and a more innovative framework to apply the ‘rocks, pebbles, and sand’ lesson. Lastly, McKinsey claims to have identified ‘four types of behavior that account for 89 percent of leadership effectiveness.’ This brings us to Deloitte Insights, exploring whether you can measure a ‘hidden—yet increasingly critical—key performance indicator:’ trust.

PS: 🗞 Did you miss past issues? No worries, here we go: 353, 352.

📈 🔬 Join 460-plus peers and contribute to the anonymous poll for the upcoming free ‘Product Owner and Product Manager Salary Report 2022!’

🏆 Tip of the Week

InfoQ: John Coleman analyzes the challenges of forecasting in epic breadth, from avoiding story points to rolling wave forecasts: "Talking About Sizing and Forecasting in Scrum."

➿ Agile & Scrum

• Mark Levison delves into decision-making practices as a group, from reversible to expensive or irreversible decisions: "Why are Group Decision-making Techniques Important?"

• Smashing Magazine: Scott Himmer shares strategies to identify and work through design and engineering conflicts: "Resolving Conflicts Between Designers And Engineers."

• McKinsey & Company claims to have identified ‘four types of behavior that account for 89 percent of leadership effectiveness:’ "What is leadership?"

🎓 🖥 💯 🇬🇧 Hands-on Agile #44: Honey, I Shrunk the Backlog with Allan Kelly — September 5, 2022

The backlog was a great idea until it wasn't. Many successful teams deliver backlog items daily, but their backlogs aren't getting any smaller. The never-ending backlog overshadows delivery success. Product discovery, dual-track agile, OKRs, etc., make it worse by accelerating backlog growth without taking any of the rotting items away.

Worst of all, doing the backlog distracts from delivering benefits to the customers and responding to change. So what are we to do?

In this presentation, Allan "Nuke the backlog" Kelly suggests you rethink the very idea of the backlog and rebuild your agile process around outcomes. You have nothing to lose by your burn-down charts.

RSVP now and join 180-plus peers: 🖥 💯 🇬🇧 Hands-on Agile #44: Honey, I Shrunk the Backlog with Allan Kelly — September 5, 2022.

👉 From time to time, we can offer last-minute seats for Professional Scrum training classes at cost to individuals who do not have access to a corporate training budget. If you like to be notified about these opportunities, please apply here.

🎯 Product

• 🎙 Lenny Rachitsky interviews Melissa Perri on what to do when your strategy is not working: what are the signs, and how can you change direction? "How to create a winning product strategy."

• John Cutler points out that ‘most strategies are a collection of assumptions,’ from certainty levels to competitor behavior: "Words Matter—Strategy & Certainty."

• 📺 🍿 CJ Gustafson admits that Marc Andreessen was right: PMF is a feeling. Enjoy ten video clips expressing precisely that feeling: "What Product Market Fit Feels Like."
  
  

🛠 Concepts, Tools & Measuring

• Lucas F Costa illustrates and quantifies the impact of unfinished work to help you convince your team to ‘stop starting and start finishing:’ "How finishing what you start makes teams more productive and predictable."
  
  

• Jason Cohen shares a framework to apply the ‘rocks, pebbles, and sand’ lesson smarter: "The practical application of ‘Rocks, Pebbles, Sand’."

• Deloitte Insights explores managing a ‘hidden—yet increasingly critical—key performance indicator:’ "Can you measure trust within your organization?"

✂️ Cutting Room Floor

• Seth Godin Seth Godin elaborates on forecasting. "How long will this take?"

📯 No Sprint Goal, No Cohesion, No Collaboration?

There are plenty of failure possibilities with Scrum. Given that Scrum is a framework with a reasonable yet short “manual,” this effect should not surprise anyone.

For example, what if there is no Sprint Goal — Sprint after Sprint? What if the Scrum team is always only working on a random assortment of work items that seem to be the most pressing at the moment of the Sprint Planning?

Learn more: No Sprint Goal, No Cohesion, No Collaboration — Making Your Scrum Work #26.

📅 Training Classes, Meetups & Events

Upcoming classes and events:

• 🖥 💯 🇩🇪 Aug 29-30 — Live Virtual Class: Professional Scrum Master Training (PSM I; German)
• 🖥 💯 🇬🇧 Sep 5 — Live Virtual Meetup: Hands-on Agile #44: Honey, I Shrunk the Backlog w/ Allan Kelly (English)
• 🖥 💯 🇬🇧 Sep 6-9 — Live Virtual Class: Advanced Professional Scrum Master Training (PSM II; English)
• 🖥 🇩🇪 Sep 26-27 — Live Virtual Class: Professional Agile Leadership Essentials Training (PAL-E; German)
• 🖥 💯 🇬🇧 Sep 27 — Live Virtual Meetup: Hands-on Agile #45: FAST: An Innovative Way to Scale w/ James Shore (English)
• 🖥 💯 🇬🇧 Oct 4-5 — Live Virtual Class: Professional Scrum Master Training (PSM I; English)
• 🖥 🇩🇪 Oct 18-21 — Live Virtual Class: Advanced Professional Scrum Product Owner Training (PSPO-A; German)
• 🖥 💯 🇬🇧 Oct 31-Nov 3 — Live Virtual Class: Professional Scrum Product Owner Training (PSPO I; English)

See all upcoming classes here.

📺 Youtube Channel

• Janna Bastow: Hands-on Agile #42: Lean Roadmapping and OKRs.

Your Opinion Matters

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Best,