Tim Ferriss - 5-Bullet Friday — September 16, 2022

Hi All!

Here is your weekly dose of 5-Bullet Friday, a list of what I’m pondering and exploring. Please feel free to forward this along to friends.

Profile I’m reading

​“Billionaire No More: Patagonia Founder Gives Away the Company” by David Gelles (New York Times). I’ve loved Yvon ever since I first read Let My People Go Surfing: The Education of a Reluctant Businessman in 2005. Here are a few colorful bits from the NYT piece that make me love Yvon even more: “In some ways, the forfeiture of Patagonia is not terribly surprising coming from Mr. Chouinard. As a pioneering rock climber in California’s Yosemite Valley in the 1960s, Mr. Chouinard lived out of his car and ate damaged cans of cat food that he bought for five cents apiece. Even today, he wears raggedy old clothes, drives a beat up Subaru and splits his time between modest homes in Ventura and Jackson, Wyo. Mr. Chouinard does not own a computer or a cellphone.”

Blog posts I’m reading

“The NFT Mint ‘Sweet Spot’: Data on Early Decisions” by Daren Matsuoka. I’m a fan of Daren’s analysis in the NFT space. This is a great primer on some fundamental mint decisions, and the matrices are very thought-provoking. It tackles many good questions, points out some important negative correlations, and also raises a lot of good questions. This was published on 3/31/22 (the date is somewhat hidden in the URL and at the very bottom of the piece), and I hope Daren posts a further exploration of potential confounders (e.g., What’s the likelihood that 10x returns for projects with 0.5–1.0 ETH mint prices are partially or wholly a byproduct of many more projects launching in that range?) and updated market/landscape commentary. It seems really challenging to isolate variables in this space. What follows are a few wishlist questions, and I think the first one is the pink elephant in the room: How do project outcomes appear to be affected by the price/USD value of ETH at any given point in time? What new patterns can you decipher using the overall larger data set now available? How much do you think projects can bank on secondary royalties in the current conditions of a bear market, and what trends can you parse related to secondaries using a larger and more current data set? How might the piece be updated given some of the post-publication successes like Moonbirds, which set new records (plus had a 10x return on ETH for a period of months) with a 2.5 ETH mint price? If I could put in another blog post request, I would love to see something like “Testing NFT Dogma: Exceptions That Prove The Rule?,” wherein you can look at lots of questionable “rules” that get repeated often on NFT Twitter and elsewhere. For instance, “You absolutely must have a Discord” used to be gospel, but then mfers, Goblintown, and others showed (or did they?) that successful projects can do without them, although “successful” can be squirrely and needs to be narrowly defined. “You can’t set mint price above ___ or you’ll squash secondary volume” is another that seems to have counterexamples. Sartoshi has a dogma starter list towards the bottom of this page, and despite the debate about his departure from NFT land, there are lessons to be learned. And even if the data support one of these consensus maxims, are there a handful of projects that have proven to be exceptions? Those could be worth studying, as could ultra-hyped projects whose teams “did the right things” but ended up failing, regardless. So many questions!

Related: “Introducing OpenRarity.” I suggest reading this page first to get a simple, illustrated walk-through of the problem, then the short FAQ here, then the above link. It shows how something that seems simple at face value is anything but. Define thy terms, lest your decisions be defined by confusion and delusion.

What I’m watching to temper and educate all this enthusiasm

​Beanie Mania on HBO Max. Thanks to Adam Locklin for the recommendation. Some people compare NFTs to the Dutch tulip craze of the 1630s, but it’s a poor comparison for a lot of reasons. If you’re an NFT bear (get it?), a much, much better analog might be Beanie Babies. From the description: “Beanie Mania is a layered and riveting look at how a children’s toy spawned an unprecedented investment bubble and a frenzy of American greed. The documentary features illuminating interviews with passionate collectors, notable influencers, and company insiders.” At the very least, you gotta watch the trailer on YouTube. If you don’t have, or don’t want, HBO Max, “How The Beanie Babies Frenzy Collapsed,” an 11-minute YouTube video by Business Insider, is excellent and worth the watch. And if you don’t have 11 minutes because you have 107 priorities, here’s a musical hairband summary in three minutes and 39 seconds.

​​Podcast episode I’m listening to

​Ep. 207: “Getting Free with Karma Yoga” (Apple Podcasts, Spotify) on the Ram Dass Here And Now podcast. This was sent to me by a close friend, and it is exceptional. I was extremely skeptical given the title of the episode. Now that I’ve finished listening, it could just as easily be titled “Finding Freedom Through The Everyday.” The host intro is roughly four minutes long, if you want to skip to the meat. Ram Dass also takes a little while to warm up, but it all adds up to a wonderfully useful and sometimes laugh-out-loud funny recording. I will be listening to this one again.

Quote I’m pondering

“There’s no difference between a pessimist who says, ‘Oh, it’s hopeless, so don’t bother doing anything,’ and an optimist who says, ‘Don’t bother doing anything, it’s going to turn out fine anyway.’ Either way, nothing happens.”
​— Yvon Chouinard​
​

​
You can complement this edition of 5-Bullet Friday with my conversation with Chris Dixon and Naval Ravikant on the wonders of Web3 as well as with my interviews with refreshingly unconventional entrepreneurs, including Basecamp co-founder David Heinemeier Hansson, billionaire investor Ray Dalio, and Ricardo Semler, author of The Seven-Day Weekend.
​
And, as always, please give me feedback on Twitter. Which bullet above is your favorite? What do you want more or less of? Other suggestions? Please let me know. Just send a tweet to @tferriss and put #5BulletFriday at the end so I can find it.
​
Have a wonderful weekend, all.
​
Much love to you and yours,
​
Tim

P.S. Deal of the Week — Pique!

I first learned about Pique through my friends Dr. Peter Attia and Kevin Rose, who gave me some as a gift years ago. I’ve been hooked ever since. Their fermented pu’er tea has become an essential part of my daily routine. I drink both their black and green pu’er nearly every morning, and I take packets with me when I travel. This rare type of naturally fermented tea is more concentrated in polyphenol antioxidants than any other tea—it supports focus and mental clarity, healthy digestion, metabolism, and a healthy immune system.
​
​Pique’s fermented pu’er tea crystals are cold-extracted using wild-harvested leaves from 250-year-old tea trees. Critically, they also triple toxin screen all their teas to ensure one of the highest levels of purity. Their cutting-edge extraction technology maximally preserves antioxidants, so you reap the health benefits with zero prep, brewing, or waiting required. The fermented pu’er black tea is rich and earthy, and the fermented pu’er green tea has a slightly tangier kick. I often combine the two in a large, insulated mug and sip the cocktail on long walks. Combining both allows me to get the full spectrum of tea antioxidants and active ingredients in one easy and enjoyable drink. Another favorite of mine is their Daily Radiance Vitamin C. Maximized for absorption using liposomal encapsulation technology, Daily Radiance is a great way to support your immune system and protect your skin health. The packets actually taste really good—think black European elderberries—so you might choose to take it once or twice a day, as I often do. ​
​
For a limited time, get 10% off sitewide when you shop my favorites. You can also get a free Pique glass bottle when you spend $135+. This is the biggest sitewide discount Pique has ever offered, and you won’t find it anywhere else. Use code TIM at checkout here: PiqueLife.com/TimFerriss. Offer expires at 11:59 p.m. PST on September 23rd. The discount does not apply to already discounted bundles or subscriptions.