Topline Takeaways

• Even though Atlanta holds roughly 60% of the state’s voters, parties need to be succesful in both Atlanta and “Not-lanta” in order to win the state.

• Black men provide an opening for Republicans as Black male voters tend to support conservatice candidates more often than Black women.

Atlanta is Not Enough

Let’s recap the results of the 2020 presidential election as this incredibly close election helps illustrate Georgia’s political dynamics. Biden’s success in the Atlanta metropolitan region has been well documented. Most of the region’s 29 counties were once Republican strongholds that began flipping toward Democrats with Barack Obama’s candidacy. Hillary Clinton compounded on Obama’s successes by flipping Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry counties in 2016. While Biden failed to flip any new counties in the 2020 election, he further cemented Democratic strength in Atlanta by running up the numbers, becoming the first Democrat to gain over 70% of the vote in Fulton County since FDR in 1944.

Even though an increasing majority of Georgia voters live in or around Atlanta, Biden’s win was only possible due to his ability to keep the margins close in the more rural parts of the state, particularly in counties where White voters are in the minority. Of the sixteen minority-majority counties outside of the Atlanta metropolitan region, nine supported Joe Biden in 2020 and eight supported Stacey Abrams in 2018. This coalition of rural minority voters currently determines electoral control within Georgia.

Georgia’s Black Belt

“If you take away 15,000 Democratic votes from rural Georgia, Biden doesn’t win Georgia.”

-Manswell Peterson, a former Democratic candidate for GA Secretary of State

While not quite as distinct as in Mississippi and Alabama, the Black Belt stretches through the center of Georgia and holds many of the state’s more racially diverse counties. Democratic grassroots organizers have been investing in this unique human geography for a while and may have finally tapped in to a winning strategy:

“Georgia can be an example of what long-term planning and power building can bring about… The results of 2020 didn't happen because people got motivated and involved that January, it's a result of dedication and commitment over years of time… that’s not easy to do.” -Kelly Dietrich, founder and CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee

Voters in these areas struggle with food insecurity, low access to broadband internet, and low educational attainment, similar to many other rural areas across the country. While these needs align with Democratic priorities, these rural voters also often hold conservative cultural values that sit at odds with Democrats’ social policies. In addition, there’s a nascent pull in some to think differently and entertain other candidates, regardless of their support for the Black community.

Kanye West and Black Conservatism

Kanye West is a controversial celebrity for a litany of reasons, most of which are due to his not-so-great mental state. While most are dismissive of his antics, a small subset of the Black community looks to Kanye for political guidance as he claims to seek out alternative avenues to promote the advancement of Black people. He stands as a public example of conservative Black voters who are fed up with the Democratic party and its existing institutions; those who believe that liberals have only given lip service without producing the change they promised.

Kanye grounds his political thinking in his role as a norm-breaking iconoclast. His prolific rise within rap was specifically because he did things differently. He rejected the gangster kayfabe that pervaded early 2000s rap in favor of a softer image that more readily dealt with the struggles of everyday life. This not only endeared him to music fans of all races, it made him an uplifting figure in the Black community that charted a healthier path forward for Black youth. This same thought process is evident in how Kanye interacts with politics.

Much like other Black conservatives, Kanye West views himself as a “free thinker” and deeply believes his thoughtfulness and work ethic were the primary drivers of his success. In West’s view “groupthink” is the primary problem holding back the Black community: that’s what he sees in the statistic of 90% of African Americans voters supporting Democratic candidates. His solution is to instead support someone different, like a member of the Republican party: pay no attention to their racist undertones (or overtones), just focus on the fact that they’re not Democrats.

To most who are politically educated, Kanye West looks like he’s getting played for a fool. During a panel discussion on cops killing unarmed Black people, West shifted the focus to black-on-black crime. He’s been quoted saying that Black people are currently living on “the Democratic plantation” and that slavery was “a choice” for Black Americans. Then of course there was his ill-fated presidential run where he was only on the ballot in 12 states. (His campaign missed the ballot access deadline in nearly 30 states.) These are all tactics and talking points that have been used by racist Republican candidates for decades. The history is unambiguous in the way that conservatives have used this language to trick Black voters into supporting politicians who at best, ignore them once in power; or worse, use their power to cause harm to Black communities. But the reason why Kanye West still stands as a political force is because his way of thinking is shared by a small subset of Black voters, specifically Black men.

While these tactics typically aren’t enough to keep Black voters in the fold, (Kanye hasn’t been successful at producing a significant shift amongst Black Americans) it does hold the door open long enough for some to realize that Republicans share similar conservative cultural ideals. It forces some voters to make a compromise: is it worth supporting someone who may not support me if they share some of my political leanings?

That compromise has created a schism in the Black community: Black women continue to support Democratic candidates in large numbers but Black men have slowly started to peel off toward Republicans. In a 2020 poll of African Americans nationwide, 24 percent of Black men approved of Trump’s tenure in office; only 6 percent of Black women agreed. However, while Black men may be the more persuadable voting bloc Black women in Georgia vote at significantly higher rates compared to Black men.

Pulling this back to Georgia’s upcoming election: don’t get distracted by details in Atlanta. Unless voters in the state’s largest city buck established trends, focus your eyes and ears on attitudes in and around the state’s rural Black Belt, running between Columbus, Macon and Augusta. Kanye certainly is no kingmaker here but he does personify a larger phenomenon that may rear its ugly head on Election Day. If enough Black men in these counties show up for Republican candidates, Democrats are going to have a rough night. On the flipside, if rural Black women turn out in large numbers like they did in 2020, Warnock and Abrams should both come out victorious.

Leftover Links

• Learn more about how Kanye West represents how a small subset of Black conservative voters think.

• Hear how Black intellectuals on the left are counteracting Kanye’s controversial conservative commentary.