Finimize - 🔮 Goldman's housing market predictions

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for November 11th in 3:10 minutes.

🕺 If there’s anything better than a two-day investing masterclass with the biggest names in finance, it’s a happenin’ after-party with a fun-loving group of Finimizers. Well, be one of the first 500 to grab a free summit ticket before midnight on Monday the 14th, and you could win one of the last ten in-person London Summit and after-party tickets too. Register here

Today's big stories

Get the balloons ready: inflation cooled by more than expected in October
Here's why we could be headed for a new housing market crisis – Read Now
EV maker Rivian hit the gas, and gave a better-than-expected results update

Surprise Party

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Thursday showed that US consumer prices rose by less than expected last month, so it might be time to carefully dig out the balloon arch.

What Does This Mean?

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has hiked interest rates by a strapping 0.75 percentage points four times in a row now, in an increasingly desperate bid to bring runaway price rises down to a gentle stroll. Definitely monotonous, but maybe effective: used car prices were 2% lower last month than the one before, and a record drop in headache-inducing health insurance costs led to the steepest slide in the price of medical care services in over fifty years. And even the uptick in stomach-turning food prices finally took a breather. So sure, there was the biggest monthly jump in accommodation costs for three decades, but that wasn’t enough to kill the vibe: overall US consumer prices rose a lower-than-expected 0.4% in October from the month before, and just 7.7% compared to the year before – the lowest year-on-year increase since January.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Pause the tunes.
Best wait a while until you post your party invites: the Fed said earlier this month that it’s hoping to see a pattern of weakening monthly inflation, and warned that peak rates will probably float even higher than they were initially expecting. But investors must be covering their ears: markets are already anticipating a smaller stock-friendly hike in December, which might be why the S&P 500 ticked up 4% after the news.

Zooming out: Hope for the best, expect the… best.
Looks like that optimism’s jumped across the pond: the eurozone’s inflation hit a historic high of nearly 11% last month, but one member of the European Central Bank – presumably donning intensely rose-tinted glasses – believes the region’s price rises could start slimming down. Still, the situation they’re hanging their hat on to make that happen – a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine – is far from guaranteed.

You might also like: This indicator says inflation might soon collapse.

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Analyst Take

Goldman Sees Global Home Prices Swaying

By Luke Suddards, Analyst

With interest rates rising from the hardwood floors to the vaulted ceilings, global housing markets have been feeling the pressure.

And that’s prompting worries that a wave of defaults might collapse this important economic sector and create a crisis.

Well, Goldman Sachs has just published an in-depth report on housing sectors around the world, with a country-by-country look at the risks.

So that’s today’s Insight: the key takeaways from Goldman’s global housing report.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Tickets to our in-person London Summit session have almost sold out.

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Thousands of Finimizers have already grabbed their tickets, so they’ll soon find out how to build a resilient portfolio that could set them up for a lifetime of financial freedom.

You’ll have to be quick if you want to join them: the in-person London session – which includes an exclusive after-party – has nearly sold out, and we’re about to give away the final 10 tickets.

Be one of the first 500 to RSVP before midnight on Monday the 14th, and you could win one of the last tickets to our London summit sessions and after-party. Remember to bring your dancing shoes.

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