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On the Jazz and accepting the joy available right now

Utah's situation is fascinating and complicated. Here's how I'm thinking about it.

Nov 23

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Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Parnassus, Raphael, 1509-11

The Utah Jazz had been near the top of the Western Conference for six seasons without getting past the second round of the playoffs when, this summer, the franchise elected to trade its two best players Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell and replace its resigned head coach with a young first-timer, Will Hardy. The trades brought mostly young players back but focused on draft capital: Utah received a total of eight first-round picks and four pick swap options in the two deals.

The Jazz then flipped the most veteran of the players acquired in the Gobert deal, Patrick Beverley, for a young player, Talen Horton-Tucker. The team then moved another of its veteran starters, Bojan Bogdanovic, for cash and role players. Before the headline trades, Utah had moved its most important perimeter defender and the team’s fifth starter Royce O’Neale for a first-round pick.

This all-too-long recap is presented only to reassert that no matter what anyone says or believes now, the Utah Jazz spent their offseason making the roster worse now in hopes of making it better than ever in the future. This is indisputable, despite the fact that the Utah Jazz are currently 12-7 and No. 2 in the West.

This happens from time to time: a team will break up a mid-tier or better roster to escape the so-called (and Kevin Arnovitz coined) “treadmill of mediocrity” and reset, usually with a few high draft picks. The Jazz are a bit different than the typical case study: Utah was far better than mediocre upon plunging forth, and thanks to fortuitous timing in the current paradigm around teams freely moving future picks, the Jazz picked up much more draft equity than usual in their moves.

But again: there’s no disputing that the Jazz were accepting their fate as a much less competitive team in 2022-23 in making these moves. That the team is actually just as good as the Gobert-Mitchell version and buckets more fun is a surprise to us all, and certainly a surprise to the Jazz front office.

Lauri Markkanen has cracked the code of scoring efficiently and potently in the NBA, building on what had been a promising season in Cleveland. Jordan Clarkson has embraced a new more prominent role after sliding perfectly into his slot as a flamethrower off the bench during the Gobert-Mitchell run. Collin Sexton is playing well. Hardy has earned effusive praise for Utah’s offensive creativity, an achievement following Quin Snyder’s footsteps. Mike Conley, now 35, will never be as productive as he once was. But he’s experienced a renaissance of sorts as the team’s leader and on-court life coach. The former Timberwolves Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt fit in. Kelly Olynyk, salary filler in the Bogdanovic trade, is being Kelly Olynyk. It’s a cool, weird team with impeccable vibes, following a better Jazz team with dreadful vibes.

The Jazz were meant to tank and have a shot at an epochal talent, Victor Wembanyama, with the second prize being a potentially transformative lead guard in Scoot Henderson. And so the question has been asked and debated: should Jazz fans be mad at this turn of events? Will these early victories — delightful now — maintain their glimmer should the Jazz lose in the first or second round of the playoffs and miss out on the lottery? Will fans and the front office look back on this stunning season years down the line as a fun diversion, a building block to something special or a missed opportunity?

Here’s how I think about all of this.

Fandoms are not uniform. People have different priorities, views and histories. If you’re a Jazz fan who was there for the Malone-and-Stockton years and only cares about winning a championship, you might have a different perspective than someone who came up in the Deron Williams-Andrei Kirilenko era. If you’re more of a casual fan who would not be paying much attention to a 10-30 Utah team, your reaction to sitting at No. 2 in the standings might be different than if you’re a founding member of Jazz Twitter. Typecasting the reaction of a diverse fandom isn’t actually useful. There isn’t one Jazz fandom. There are a hundred. So the question “how will Jazz fans look back on this?” doesn’t get you anywhere.
This is entertainment, and interest is the currency. The Jazz are an entertainment business and a long-running concern. Fan interest and brand equity create the value here. Part of the equation in deciding when to rebuild an NBA roster is in determining whether team leadership has the stomach to weather lower fan interest and brand equity during losing seasons for the promise of higher and more sustainable fan interest and brand equity in potential future successful seasons. Will you trade lower gate revenue, fewer jersey sales, lower advertising rates, less cultural capital in the community, less interesting guests in the owner’s box for a couple of seasons in hopes of higher revenue, higher cultural capital, higher interest for a sustained period down the road? This is a decision franchises weigh all the time. Where it got interesting for the Jazz in this surprise season is that interest is really high right now, in fact higher than it would have been for another season of Gobert and Mitchell, in part because of the vibes. Vibes matter!
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Being good now doesn’t close the door on the Jazz being great soon. Going into the season, a majority of analysts would likely have rated the Jazz’s own 2023 pick as their most valuable asset. That’s probably no longer the case; the Timberwolves’ unprotected 2023 pick (owned by Utah) and Markkanen rate higher than the Jazz’s own ‘23 pick at minimum. You could make a case for Walker Kessler and all of the future Wolves picks being up there, too. Now, to the point: because of all those draft assets they picked up in the trades, there is still a path to future sustainable success even if this particular incarnation of the team fizzles within a couple of years. The chance at Wembanyama is slipping away. But thanks to the NBA draft lottery it was never certain that the Jazz could get him anyway. Yet the front office will have a full deck of picks to use on promising prospects or to package for established talent. It would be a different scenario if the Jazz had traded Gobert and Mitchell only for young talent with limited upside and not a chest full of draft picks. Then you could say that they have opted for some pleasant success now over potential championship equity in the future. As it turns out, the Jazz inadvertently did both: they opted for pleasant success now and potential championship equity in the future.
Lauri Markkanen might become a regular ol’ All-Star forward. The Finnisher is 25 years old and has been a solid per-minute scorer going all the way back to his rookie season. It doesn’t appear he’s shooting over his head this season — his conversion rate on mid-range jumpers is dramatically up, but those shots only make up less than 10% of his shot diet. He’s getting into the lane and to the line more, and finishing better inside. Even if that moderates back to career norms — it doesn’t have to, he’s 25! — there’s room to grow on his three-point shooting. Before the season, Markkanen looked like potentially the best player on the roster, but nothing deserving of major notice outside of Salt Lake City. The old “24 on 10/21 shooting in the loss” line. That narrative is changing: he might be this good or better, and that changes the tenor of the Jazz roster dramatically.
There are no guarantees in the NBA, so take the victories in reach. The Sacramento Kings were within grasp of eternal greatness for a 5-year run in the late ‘90s and early 2000s, dropped to merely average in the aftermath and tore everything torn in an effort to get back to the contendership. Most of the ensuing run was far less pleasant than the “merely average” years in the aftermath of Chris Webber’s injuries and eventual trade. Only now do the Kings appear to be on the cusp of bringing a wide swath of their fans joy again. There are no guarantees. When victory — when joy for your fans and players and staff and even corporate partners — is in reach, when it is on the table now, when you can capture fan interest and brand equity right now in the present moment: you should take it. This doesn’t mean ignoring the steps needed to secure future joy! Simply don’t deny the joy available to you while on the path. (Note: this also applies to life.)

It’s my hope and belief that five years down the road Jazz fans writ large won’t look back on 2022-23 and wonder what could have been had joy been deferred, but they will look back in wonder on what was.

Scores

Nets 106, Sixers 115 — First thing’s first: this is a B-A-D loss for the Nets if they have designs on being better than a play-in team. No Embiid, Maxey or Harden? If you’re not better than the Sixers without Embiid, Maxey or Harden, you’re not a playoff team in the East.

That said, silver linings! Ben Simmons survived the vitriol in his return to Philadelphia.

Kristian Winfield @Krisplashed

Sixers fans mercilessly boo Ben Simmons during pregame introductions

The box score won’t jump out at you (11-7-11), but Simmons did have a productive, aggressive game.

But Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton outscored Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, so there you go.

Kings 113, Grizzlies 109 — Oh god. Oh no. This was the most stressful 4-5 minutes in a Kings game in a long time. Sacramento led 102-90 with 4:23 remaining. They had six turnovers in the next 11 possessions and hit exactly one field goal in the final four minutes. And yet they hit their free throws and held on for a win of deep relief. Light the beam!

Ja Morant had 34 for the game, 20 of those in the fourth. But he made a critical misstep in tempting fate by trying to get in Malik Monk’s head.

Rob Perez @WorldWideWob

With 3.9 seconds left and the score 109-108, Ja Morant walks up to Malik Monk at the free throw line and tells him “dont miss” three times. Monk makes both. Morant then goes to line with a chance to tie the game seconds later, misses. Kings win. youtu.be/bvn8B0PfJbg

That “nope” slays me. On to the next!

Pistons 110, Nuggets 108 — With the Nuggets fully healthy, Detroit had a distressing 13-point lead halfway through the fourth. But Denver clawed back enough to get their hearts broken.

Lakers 105, Suns 115 — Anthony Davis is really on fire right now. Great to see him playing up to his capabilities.

There’s just not enough decent consistent offense around him with LeBron still out of action. L.A.’s guards shot 13/37 from the floor and made exactly two threes. The Lakers had all of four three-pointers in the whole game!

Fear not, though, because Patrick Beverley got himself trending for shoving Deandre Ayton late in the game.

Bleacher Report @BleacherReport

PAT BEV PUSHED AYTON 😳😳

Ayton was standing over Austin Reaves, whether intentional or not, and that tends to get some folks’ goat. Notably among the Lakers it only got Pat Bev’s goat.

Dave McMenamin @mcten

Patrick Beverley on his involvement in the LAL-PHX incident: "Got a person on the ground, two people looking over mean-mugging and puffing their chest out and referees don’t get into it to kind of separate it, control the game so I’m going to stand up for my teammate"

Historically, his goat is available and easy to get. Other Lakers did defend Pat Bev’s decision after the game; perhaps a 10-game winning streak is now in the cards so we can get another round of “Pat Bev’s attitude is the secret sauce!” pundit talk that I will 25% believe.

For what it’s worth, before the ejection Pat Bev had a line of 0-10-2 shooting 0/2 from the floor with a game-low -15. Low-key the strangest player in the NBA from a production standpoint.

The Suns are No. 1 in the West standings. They’ve played about half the season without Chris Paul or Cam Johnson, and all season without the Jae Crowder situation being resolved. Impressive.

Schedule

Very busy Wednesday night. All times Eastern.

Sixers at Hornets, 7
Blazers at Cavaliers, 7
Timberwolves at Pacers, 7
Kings at Hawks, 7:30
Mavericks at Celtics, 7:30, ESPN
Wizards at Heat, 7:30
Nets at Raptors, 7:30
Bulls at Bucks, 8
Nuggets at Thunder, 8
Pelicans at Spurs, 8
Pistons at Jazz, 9
Clippers at Warriors, 10, ESPN

Links

Chris Herring on the Kings as the most fun team in the NBA.

Zach Kram on the Clippers’ problems and how a sort-of healthy Kawhi Leonard doesn’t solve them.

Vile stuff from former NBA official Ken Mauer, who is suing the league with two other referees whose league employment ended because they wouldn’t get vaccinated after their union agreed to the mandate.

Marc Stein on when it becomes too late to tank.

How the elimination of the take foul is statistically affecting the game.

Just because, Kevin Durant talking up Kevin Huerter and the Kangz: