Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Paisaje con Bosque y Río; Joaquin Clausell; 1900s

Let’s be realistic: the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder will be the No. 1 seeds of their respective conferences. Cleveland’s up 7.5 games in the East; OKC is up 11 in the West. Those races are over.

Likewise, the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds in the East are likely to remain static. The Boston Celtics are only up 2.5 games on the New York Knicks with 21 games left, which is a margin easily bridged. But Boston’s already won the tiebreaker, which effectively makes the lead a game bigger, and the Knicks have just one head-to-head battle left to make up a game. Even if the Knicks were to catch the Celtics, it wouldn’t have wide-ranging effects on the rest of the league. The Nos. 6 and 7 seeds will care, and assuming both teams advance the Knicks would get home court in the conference semifinals. That’s it.

The bottom five teams in each conference are also likely set. The No. 11 teams (there’s a tie) in the East are 2.5 games behind the No. 10 Chicago Bulls, but both squads — the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers — are fading. The tiebreakers remain unresolved, and the Bulls are back four games from No. 9. There’s a chance Chicago slips and this becomes competitive. But probably not. The Bulls are likely the No. 10 seed.

The chances for competition are greater in the West if only because the chasing teams — the No. 11 Phoenix Suns and No. 12 Portland Trail Blazers — are better than the East play-in would-bes. But the Suns are back 3.5 games and the Blazers four games, so they are likely out.

But again, let’s assume all of those seeds mentioned above — Nos. 1-3 and 10 in the East, No. 1 in the West — are non-competitive the remainder of the season. That leaves us four consequential races involving 15 teams. Or, half the league still has a lot at stake, even when determining that 10 postseason teams in each conference are set. That feels like a lot.

Let’s dig in...