Good morning. We’re going deep into China’s population decline and economic crisis. Also, Ukraine takes center stage at Davos. |
| Together with Japan and South Korea, China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.Qilai Shen for The New York Times |
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At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, China sought to reassure the world that its economy was back on track. A delegation told world leaders that business could return to normal now that the country has relaxed its “zero Covid” policy. |
But China’s projected resilience does not align with two major revelations about its long-term health and stability. |
- Yesterday, China revealed that its economy had just had one of its worst performances since 1976, the year Mao Zedong died. Its economy grew by just 3 percent, far short of its 5.5 percent target.
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- Perhaps more consequential, China also revealed that its population had shrunk last year for the first time since the Great Leap Forward, Mao’s failed economic experiment.
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In the population data, experts see major implications for China, its economy and the world. Births in China have fallen for years, and officials have fought to reverse the trend. They have loosened the one-child policy and offered incentives to encourage families to have children. Those policies did not work. Now, some experts think the decline may be irreversible. |
A shrinking Chinese population means that the country will face labor shortages in the absence of enough people of working age to fuel its growth. By 2035, 400 million people in China are expected to be over 60, nearly a third of its population. That will have major implications for the global economy; the country has been the engine of world growth for decades. |
Opinion: China’s population decline creates two major economic challenges, writes Paul Krugman. The state pension system will struggle to handle the unbalanced ratio of older adults to the working population. And the decline may harm China’s overall productivity. |
| Olena Zelenska pressed leaders at Davos to support Ukraine.Gian Ehrenzeller/EPA, via Shutterstock |
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The Ukraine war dominates at Davos |
The war in Ukraine is taking center stage at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, as Ukraine pushes for more aid and advanced weapons from the West. |
Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s first lady, is there in person. Yesterday, she called on world leaders and others at the forum to use their influence to help Ukraine. She also outlined the 10-point peace plan that her husband, President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced last fall, which includes Russia’s complete withdrawal. |
Pressure is now growing on Germany to export its main battle tank to Ukraine, or allow other countries to do so. Poland and Finland are waiting for Germany’s approval to send the German tanks, which could help Ukraine better defend itself against Russian aerial attacks and take the initiative along the front line in the east. |
What’s next: The dispute over German-made tanks should be resolved by the end of the week. Vocal U.S. support could help sway Germany. Yesterday, a senior NATO official said that Britain’s recent announcement that it would send 14 tanks to Ukraine was making Germany’s reluctance untenable. |
Context: Ukraine and its allies are growing more worried that there is only a short window to prepare for a possible Russian offensive in the spring. |
Elsewhere: The Australian Open banned Belarusian and Russian flags yesterday. It has allowed tennis players from those countries to compete, but not as representatives of their country. |
| Brayan Apaza, 15, is the youngest person who was killed in the protests.Federico Rios Escobar for The New York Times. |
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A referendum on Peru’s democracy |
Protests in rural Peru that began more than a month ago over the ouster of the former president, Pedro Castillo, have grown in size and in the scope of demonstrators’ demands. |
“This democracy is no longer a democracy,” they chant as they block streets. |
Background: Peru returned to democracy just two decades ago, after the authoritarian rule of Alberto Fujimori. The current system, based on a Fujimori-era Constitution, is rife with corruption, impunity and mismanagement. |
Context: The crisis reflects an erosion of trust in democracies across Latin America, fueled by states that “violate citizens’ rights, fail to provide security and quality public services and are captured by powerful interests,” according to The Journal of Democracy. Just 21 percent of Peruvians are satisfied with their democracy, according to one study. Only Haiti fares worse in Latin America. |
| Mursal Nabizada was one of a few female legislators who stayed in Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power. Wakil Kohsar/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images |
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- A former Afghan lawmaker was fatally shot at her home in Kabul. No one has been arrested, and it was unclear whether it was a politically motivated murder or a family conflict.
- New Zealand is facing an egg shortage. One reason is a decade-old disagreement about how to farm poultry.
- Vietnam’s president resigned yesterday after he was found responsible for a series of corruption scandals, The Associated Press reports.
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| Some 130,000 babies get infected with H.I.V. each year in sub-Saharan Africa.Malin Fezehai for The New York Times |
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| Princess Martha Louise of Norway stepped away from her royal duties last year to focus on her alternative medicine business.Lise Aserud |
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| “The Reading Party” painted in 1735 by Jean-François de Troy, was sold for $3.6 million last month. Christie's |
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Tough times for the old masters |
The art market, like pretty much everything else in our culture, has become all about the here and now. European paintings from before 1850 were once a bedrock of the market. But now, works by the old masters make up just 4 percent of sales at Sotheby’s and Christie’s. |
Experts say that younger collectors often regard art from the distant past as remote and irrelevant, and contemporary art reflects the fast-forward cultural preoccupations of our society. There may also be a financial incentive: Works by younger, Instagram-lauded artists are routinely “flipped” at auction for many multiples of their original gallery prices. |
Related: A new book, “The Status Revolution,” argues that class signifiers have flipped. The lowbrow has supplanted luxury as a sign of prestige. |
| Armando Rafael for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Prop Stylist: Paige Hicks. |
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That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — Amelia |
“The Daily” is on China’s “zero Covid” pivot. |
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