Mississippi’s 2022 midterm elections were largely inconsequential. The major elections on the ballot were US House seats and all four US House incumbents won re-election by large margins. The most newsworthy tidbit is that the state had the lowest turnout of all 50 states for the 2022 midterms, due to restrictive voting laws stemming from a history of violent voter suppression. Instead of reviewing these races, I’ll be bringing these issues to light by turning my gaze toward the future: Mississippi has an off-year governor’s race on the ballot in November 2023 and the race is already off to a rocky start. Let’s dive in…

Mississippi Dems Can’t Win Without Black Voters

According to Pew, 42% of Mississippi voters consider themselves Democrats and 76% of Black Mississippians consider themselves Democrats. (As a reminder Mississippi has the largest proportion of Black residents in the United States: roughly 38% of its residents are Black.) When you do the math, a registration gap emerges for Black Mississippi Democrats:

The estimates above display Mississippi’s failure to enfranchise its Black population. The question remains if Mississippi’s Democratic party leadership is doing enough to combat this injustice or is consciously reluctant to share power with its primarily Black constituency. Regardless, the math is clear: Democrats cannot win in Mississippi if they don’t robustly register AND turnout their overwhelmingly Black voter base. The party has an opportunity this year as Mississippi’s governor is up for re-election. Guess who Mississippi Democrats are coalescing behind?

A distant cousin of Elvis Presley… I shit you not.

Presley v. Reeves

Brandon Presley is a public service commissioner hailing from Northeast Mississippi, the Whitest corner of the state. He introduced himself to voters with a video of him walking through his hometown of Nettleton: a predominately White, rural town. The policy positions he stands for are color-blind as they cross racial lines; like expanding rural broadband and fighting for Medicaid expansion. But to have a chance at winning, Presley will not only need to earn the trust of Black Mississippians, he’ll also need a robust staff that understands how to navigate the systemic racism that prevents thousands from voting.

When searching for evidence of coalition building with the Black community I only saw one consistent point made: he’s got Black friends! 🙄 While he’s just launching his campaign and still has nine months to court voters, his track record does not inspire faith that he’ll be able to forcefully turnout Black voters in the way that he needs to win. History has proven to Mississippi Democrats that a color-blind campaign will not win in Mississippi and so far Presley only looks to be repeating history, not disrupting it.

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There are already signs of failure on the horizon: while a clear majority of Mississippi voters indicated that they want a new governor on a recent poll, incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves still polled ahead of Presley by 6-points in a hypothetical match-up.

Black voters in particular have already voiced their displeasure with the pick. When asked to choose between incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves and “someone else,” 78% of Black voters said they would support an unknown challenger. But when a Presley v. Reeves is placed in front of them, that group shrunk to 69% of Black voters who said they would support Presley.*

*To be fair to Presley, this poll was conducted days before he officially announced his candidacy. 61% of all MS voters claimed that they know very little about the candidate.

Alternatives Are Out There…

Last Friday marked Mississippi’s candidate filing deadline. While Brandon Presley is not yet the Democratic party’s official nominee, neither of the other Democratic candidates have much political experience. But let’s not get it twisted, there’s no shortage of electable politicians that stand up for Mississippi’s Black community. Here’s a handful of rising Democratic stars that are all qualified candidates to run for statewide office in the future:

• Chokwe Antar Lumumba, the current mayor of Jackson has made waves nationally as he’s fought state government to fix crumbling infrastructure

• Angela Turner-Ford, a Black attorney who has spent nearly a decade serving on the Mississippi State Senate and is the current Chair of Mississippi’s Legislative Black Caucus.

• Errick Simmons, the mayor of Greenville, also serves as President of the Mississippi Delta Mayors Association and garnered the highest percentage of the popular vote ever received by a mayoral candidate in Greenville. (He’s also a twin!)

And let’s be clear: Mississippi Democrats shouldn’t be forced to nominate a Black candidate but at minimum they should support candidates that take actions on behalf of their voting base. For an example of a white Democrat that would be better than a cousin of Elvis, take a look at State Sen. David Blount. Blount represents a district that holds the heavily Black southern suburbs of Jackson, MS, and was one of only two White legislators to vote against a recent bill denouncing critical race theory. He’s also supported pathways to restore voting rights for convicted felons, as a disproportionate amount of Black residents are barred from voting due to past convictions.

Mississippi Democrats clearly have a solid bench of reputable politicians that could feasibly win a statewide race. The problem is that party leadership simply doesn’t believe in the power of Mississippi’s Black vote. No wonder they keep losing…

More From Battleground on Mississippi

• See how both racism and the prohibition of alcohol have shaped Mississippi’s political geography.

• Learn about the state’s 300-mile long congressional district that spans the entirety of its western border.