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PitchBook News - Do all roads lead to a recession?

Crypto's stormy Q4; seed investing defies startup drubbing; Sound Ventures targets $200M AI fund; eyeball-scanning crypto startup eyes $120M
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The Daily Pitch: VC
February 13, 2023
The Daily Pitch is powered by PitchBook’s industry-defining research and best-in-class data
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In today's Daily Pitch, you'll find:
  • Our latest analyst note maps the road ahead for the US private markets—and explores the potential for a recession.

  • A look back on crypto investors' stormy journey in our latest Emerging Tech Research.

  • Smaller PE firms have carved out niches such as sports media and entertainment to secure commitments.
 
Today's Top Stories  
Do all roads lead to a recession?
While public market struggles carried the headlines last year, market pricing told a different story.

PitchBook analysts believe rising discount rates, rather than lower growth expectations or higher risk premiums, were responsible for most of the public market's woes in 2022. But what do these mixed messages mean for the likelihood of a recession?

Our latest analyst note breaks down recent economic and public market developments that have shaped the outlook for the US private markets, examines the key risks and opportunities investors are facing, and lays out the potential roads forward—many of which would lead to a recession.
read it now
 
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Investor appetite, micro-funds help seed investing defy startup drubbing
(Andey_Popov/Shutterstock)
2022 was a record year for seed investments. Meanwhile, deal activity at the late stage slowed down sharply.

The bifurcation displays investor sentiment about two widely accepted concepts: Mature startups are the most vulnerable to volatility in the public markets, and the best companies are built when capital is scarce.
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A message from BMO Sponsor Finance  
Transaction Trends: 2022 year in review
In the current issue of Transaction Trends, BMO Sponsor Finance provides a 2022 year in review, including trends in pricing, capital structures and EBITDA margins.

To learn more, download the full issue of Transaction Trends. You can also reach out to your Sponsor Finance contact, or to Stephen R. Isaacs, Managing Director and Head of BMO Sponsor Finance, at stephen.isaacs@bmo.com.
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Crypto weathered a stormy Q4
2022 proved to be difficult for cryptocurrency investors—the implosion of FTX, leading to a subsequent decline in investor confidence, capped a year full of crises.

While Q4 produced strong headwinds for crypto, our latest Emerging Tech Research suggests there's a more complicated picture of trends and figures. Key takeaways include:
  • Totals for VC deal count and value dropped 39.6% and 47.9% on a quarterly basis, respectively.

  • 2022 still set records for crypto, with all-time highs for capital invested, at $26.2 billion, and number of deals, at 2,541. Investment rose across all stages, with seed funding up 53.8% year-over-year.

  • Several emerging opportunities remain for investors, including real-world asset tokenization and the creation of more providers to stake tokens.
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Emerging managers go niche to score in tough fundraising climate
(Vasyl Shulga/Shutterstock)
After a record fundraising year in 2021, PE managers found it hard to attract capital in 2022, particularly those raising a first-time fund.

Smaller PE shops have discovered that deep industry connections and a targeted strategy can go a long way toward securing commitments, even when some limited partners are dialing back their alternatives exposure.
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GP stakes gain traction as fundraising slows
(YesPhotographers/Shutterstock)
The practice of buying stakes in private equity firms—also called general partner stakes—is gaining traction as institutional investors look at ways to gain diversified exposure to the asset class in a tough fundraising environment.

At the same time, firms are seeing GP stakes as a way of bolstering their balance sheets.
read more
 
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Recommended Reads
Thousands of fintech jobs are gone as companies cut costs for the first time. [Bloomberg]

The SEC is probing an investment firm owned by the Mormon Church for holding back disclosures on a portfolio of a size comparable to some of the biggest sovereign wealth funds. [The Wall Street Journal]

Competition, government incentives and falling raw material prices are making battery-powered cars more affordable, sooner than expected. [The New York Times]
 
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Quick Takes  
  The Daily Benchmark  
  2011 Vintage North American Funds-of-Funds  
  Exit & IPOs  
  Tikehau seals EuroGroup Laminations IPO  
  Fundraising  
  EQT sets sights on $22B+ infrastructure fund  
  Sound Ventures targets $200M AI fund  
  Corporate M&A  
  Kotak Mahindra eyes $65M+ microfinancing deal  
 
 
The Daily Benchmark  
2011 Vintage North American Funds-of-Funds
Median IRR
17.15%
Top Quartile IRR
21.93%
2.20x
Median TVPI
Select top performers
Venture Investment Associates VII
Weathergage Capital Investments A
SVB Strategic Investors Fund V
*IRR: net of fees
47 Funds in Benchmark »
Check out the latest version of PitchBook Benchmarks
 
VC Deals  
Sam Altman, founder of OpenAI, is in talks to raise up to $120 million from several sovereign wealth funds for Worldcoin, his new eyeball-scanning crypto startup, The Block reported.

Cirba Solutions, a battery materials management and processor company, has raised $50 million in a round led by the Marubeni Corp.

Inscribe, which offers a risk intelligence platform, has secured a $25 million Series B led by Threshold Ventures.

Tazapay, a Singapore-based fintech specialist, has raised a $16.9M Series A led by Sequoia Southeast Asia.

Andreessen Horowitz has led a $15 million Series A for remote learning startup Marker Learning. The round also included participation from Richard Branson's Virgin Group.

Commercial EV startup Turno has raised a $13.8 million Series A co-led by B Capital and Avaana Capital.

Zurich-based Nanoflex Robotics has received $12 million in a round led by Ascend Capital Partners. The startup focuses on medical robotics.

Reshape Biotech, a Copenhagen-based builder of lab automation robots, has added $7.1 million to its seed round. The round, which totals $8.1 million, was led by Acme Capital.

Act Venture Capital has led a €5 million investment in Dublin-based Spectrum.Life. The startup offers a mental health and well-being platform for the corporate, insurance and education sectors.

Sesame Labs, a Web3 marketing startup, has raised a $4.5 million seed round co-led by Wing Venture Capital and Patron. Samsung also participated, along with Balaji Srinivasan, CTO of Coinbase.
 
PE Deals  
Francisco Partners has made a growth investment in Greenslate, a cloud-based payroll provider. VSS Capital Partners has exited its stake and reinvested in the company.

Mortgage data vendor Black Knight is courting private equity firms to buy its software business Empower for as much as $400 million, Reuters reported.

Private equity fund manager Epiris is exploring a possible $1 billion sale of Bonhams auction house, Bloomberg reported. The London-based luxury auction specialist reportedly hit $1 billion in revenue for the first time in its 230-year history in 2022.

Munich-based Dubag Group has purchased Eurovision Services, the broadcast services arm of the European Broadcasting Union. The Swiss subsidiary was created in 2019.
 
Exit & IPOs  
Tikehau seals EuroGroup Laminations IPO
Tikehau Capital has completed the Milan IPO of Italian motors and generators company EuroGroup Laminations. The offer price of €5.50 per share suggests a market capitalization of €922 million (about $986.8 million) for the company.
View details
 
View similar company »
 
 
Fundraising  
EQT sets sights on $22B+ infrastructure fund
EQT has set a €21 billion (about $22.5 billion) hard cap for its sixth infrastructure fund. The fund—which held a €15.7 billion close in November 2021—will focus on energy, environmental, transportation and telecommunications investments.
View fund
View 1,331 investments »
Sound Ventures targets $200M AI fund
Ashton Kutcher's Sound Ventures is discussing raising a $200 million fund for AI investments, Bloomberg reported. The firm counts Airbnb, Uber, Spotify and Pinterest among its previous investments.
View details
 
View 181 investments »
 
 
Corporate M&A  
Kotak Mahindra eyes $65M+ microfinancing deal
Mumbai-based Kotak Mahindra Bank plans to acquire microfinance company Sonata in a $65.04 million all-cash deal. The acquisition is part of the lender's push to boost its operations for economically disenfranchised households in India.
View details
View 11 competitors »
 
Chart of the Day  
"LPs are adopting a wait-and-see approach before committing new capital to new, less-established GPs given the nervousness of private markets deriving from the fall in public markets."

Source: PitchBook's 2022 Annual European PE Breakdown
 
Who's in the newsletter today?
Investors
Acme Capital
Act Venture Capital
Andreessen Horowitz
Ascend Capital Partners
Ashton Kutcher
Avaana Capital.
B Capital
Balaji Srinivasan
Dubag Group
EQT
Epiris
Francisco Partners
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Marubeni Corp
Patron
Richard Branson's
Sam Altman
Samsung
Sequoia Southeast Asia
Sound Ventures
Threshold Ventures
Tikehau Capital
VSS Capital Partners
Virgin Group
Wing Venture Capital
Companies
Airbnb
Black Knight
Bonhams
Cirba Solutions
Coinbase
EuroGroup Laminations
Eurovision Services
Greenslate
Inscribe
Marker Learning
Nanoflex Robotics
OpenAI
Pinterest
Reshape Biotech
Sesame Labs
Sonata
Spectrum.Life
Spotify
Tazapay
Turno
Uber
Worldcoin
 
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