Finimize - 🇨🇳 Goldman’s counting on China

Goldman expects a lot from Chinese stocks | Meta announced a subscription service |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for February 21st in 3:11 minutes.

🇬🇧 The UK’s a bit of a paradox right now, with a dire outlook but a first-class FTSE 100 performance. So tune into JPMorgan’s Mike Bell on the Finimize Podcast, and get the real lie of the British land. Listen in on Spotify or YouTube

Today's big stories

  1. Meta took a page from Twitter’s playbook and announced a subscription service of its own
  2. Fund managers are backing four specific investments right now – Read Now
  3. Goldman Sachs said that China’s stocks are on an upward trajectory

If You Can’t Beat ‘Em

If You Can’t Beat ‘Em

What’s Going On Here?

Meta announced over the weekend that it’s joining the social media subscription-service club.

What Does This Mean?

Advertising revenue is Meta’s bread and butter, but Apple’s new privacy policy threw a wrench in the works back in 2021 by limiting how closely companies could track users’ data. That hit Meta’s Facebook and Instagram platforms hard: they’d got used to selling super-targeted ads based on users’ activity, and Meta estimated the shake-up would slash its annual ad takings by $10 billion last year. And with today’s global economic slowdown making waves and shrinking firms’ advertising budgets, Meta’s had to put on its thinking cap. The brainwave: offer users perks like account verification, enhanced fraud protection, and greater visibility for a set fee.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Meta’s edge.
Meta’s playing a game of catch-up on this one, with rivals Snap and Twitter having already deployed the whole “turn-your-users-into-subscribers” stratagem. But with Twitter's offering pretty slow to take off, it’s far from clear that users are actually willing to pay for perks like these. Mind you, Meta does have a trick or two up its sleeve. First, subscribers will have to verify their identity with a government ID, side-stepping the worries about fraudulent “verified” accounts that plagued Twitter last year. And second, the firm has an edge when it comes to user numbers, so if even a few of its content creators sign up, the rest could end up following suit out of fear of – gasp – social media irrelevancy.

For markets: Valuation potential.
This venture could be a dream come true for Meta’s investors: subscriptions can secure a very reliable stream of cash, giving businesses the kind of predictability that often leads to higher valuations. And with Meta still down 15% from a year ago – despite the cost cuts and share buyback announcements that recently boosted shares – that shot in the arm could be just what the doctor ordered.

You might also like: Five Big Tech themes for 2023. 

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Analyst Take

Where Four Pros Would Invest $10,000 Now

Where Four Pros Would Invest $10,000 Now

By Luke Suddards, Analyst

Now’s the time for new ideas.

Sure, retail investors have come back swinging – but US stocks aren’t quite as attractive as they were, so you can’t go searching for bargains in all the usual places.

So I figured it’s time to check out where the savviest pros are investing – and as luck would have it, Bloomberg recently asked four fund managers where they’d invest $10,000 right now

That’s today’s Insight: here’s where four big-time fund managers would invest right now

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Gotta Have Faith

Gotta Have Faith

What’s Going On Here?

Strategists at Goldman Sachs have a whole lot of confidence in China’s stocks.

What Does This Mean?

The Chinese stock market started the year with a bang, buoyed up by investors’ high hopes for the Red Dragon’s grand reopening. But that party screeched to a halt late last month, as the country’s Covid resurgence and escalating tensions with the US triggered a mini selloff. That worried some observers, but not Goldman Sachs: the firm thinks China will continue to regain its moxie as time goes on, and it believes that consumer areas – like the service sector, which still isn’t anywhere near its pre-pandemic health – stand to grow the most. What’s more, experts think the government’s gearing up to announce some fresh new growth policies, which could be why the Wall Street firm reckons the MSCI China Index will be cruising 24% higher at the end of the year.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Nifty numbers.
It looks like China could finally be putting a lid on Covid too: data out last week showed that the country's mortality rate has dropped off a cliff, plunging so quickly that some skeptics are casting doubt on the numbers. But if the figures are bona fide, they bode seriously well – so much so that you might want to keep an eye on oil prices. See, analysts at Vanda Insights predict that China’s demand for oil will return to pre-pandemic levels next quarter, which could send prices skyward.

Zooming out: China’s danger zones.
"The world's manufacturer" might have its production lines whirring again, but China should be careful where it locates its industrial might from now on. A study out on Monday showed that China's home to 16 of the 20 regions that will be worst affected by climate change. With many industrialized areas on the line, the country could end up having to rebuild whole regions or build out in different areas altogether.

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💬 Quote of the day

“That man is the richest whose pleasures are the cheapest.”

– Henry David Thoreau (an American essayist, poet, and practical philosopher)
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🌍 Finimize Live

🥳 Coming Up This Week…

All events in UK time.

🗞 The Relationship Between News And The Markets: 5pm, February 21st
✍️ What Are Investment DAOs And How Do They Work?: 6pm, February 22nd

👀 And After That…

💸 How To Pick Winning Exchange-Traded Funds: 5pm, March 7th
🌥 Do Recessions Have A Silver Lining?: 5pm, March 8th
🌎 Three Ways Long-Term Investors Can Act On Climate Change: 12pm, March 21st
🚀 What Will Be The Next Big Thing In Artificial Intelligence?: 1pm, March 22nd

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  2. 80 years of flying saucers. The US has been tracking UFOs since the ’40s.
  3. Sacred chocolate. Your favorite sweet treat has a pretty holy history.
  4. The Frost Generation. Growing up during the Ice Age wasn’t easy.
  5. Early-hour influencers. Here’s why TikTok’s so obsessed with morning routines.
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