Topline Takeaways

• Ron DeSantis’s political transformation of Florida cannot be understated or ignored. Not only did the governor single-handedly draw away a Democratic US House district, he also produced the largest margin of victory seen in a statewide Florida election since 1982.

• This political transformation was made possible due to the way DeSantis sold the state to the nation as a haven for “freedom” during the coronavirus pandemic, spurring a massive wave of migration by conservatives across the country.

• Republicans up and down the ticket in 2022 benefited from this friendly voting environment: the party won all statewide positions for the first time since the 1800s.

Florida: Remade in DeSantis’s Image

During the coronavirus pandemic Florida experienced a massive wave of domestic migration, placing it in the #1 spot among all 50 states for net migration. While Florida has been known for decades as a premier destination for retirees, Ron DeSantis’s pandemic response christened the state as a utopia for conservatives.

It’s imperative to understand that migration during and following the coronavirus wasn’t just massive, it was also incredibly political. Ron DeSantis deliberately positioned his state’s pandemic response measures (or lack thereof) as a selling point to entice new residents. His political positioning wasn’t solely borne out of a concern to “keep Florida free” it was also about selling his vision for Florida to the nation. And he sold it incredibly well.

In the years following the pandemic, Florida has remained the #1 destination for conservatives looking for ‘redder’ pastures. It is estimated that nearly 400,000 Americans have moved to the state every year following the pandemic and studies show that amongst these new residents registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin.

It should surprise no one that a red wave washed away Florida Democrats in 2022.

Democrats Washed Away By Local Red Wave

Amidst this political transformation, Florida Democrats are forced into an impossible position. Not only did they enter the 2022 midterm elections in a registration deficit, they were also forced to compete in unfair districts. Again, the primary culprit of this uneven landscape was none other than Gov. Ron DeSantis, who single-handedly tossed a majority-Black congressional district by submitting his own maps for approval. To put in perspective just how tilted the US House map was in favor of Republicans this cycle: the party won support from 58% of Florida voters and now holds over 70% of the state’s US House seats.

So what do Democrats do now?

First, the national party needs to temporarily give up on funding Democrats in Florida’s statewide races in favor of candidates in more winnable states. DeSantis’s re-election was historic as he produced a landslide 20-point victory over former governor Charlie Crist. Sen. Marco Rubio had an equally impressive showing: beating his challenger former Rep. Val Demings by a wide 17-point margin. These embarrassing losses were funded heavily by the national Democratic party and became some of the most expensive races in the nation during the 2022 midterms. (Florida’s Senate race was the third most expensive race in 2022 behind Georgia and Pennsylvania. Florida’s gubernatorial race was the second most expensive in the nation behind only Illinois.) Again, this money can be better spent elsewhere, especially as several Democratic losses in other states can be attributed explicitly due to a lack of funding from the national party. (Florida is also a notoriously expensive advertising market; dollars spent elsewhere pay for more outreach than those spent in Florida.) Most importantly: more money won’t change the fact that Floridians want to buy what Republicans are selling, especially since they explicitly moved to the state for their politics.

Meanwhile, the state-level Democratic party should turn inward and focus explicitly on local issues and community outreach. Instead of placing a laser-focus on the top of the ticket, Florida Democrats need to play the long game in order to effectively rebuild a coalition of support strong enough to win statewide races. Part of the party’s issue is one of trust: many new residents moved to the state already distrustful of Democrats and Florida Republicans have effectively taken advantage of this distrust by painting the party as group of out-of-touch socialists. Focus should be put on “rebuilding the bench” via investing in local community leaders that already have buy-in from their neighbors.

Most importantly, the Florida Democratic Party needs to craft its own image separate from the national party. Florida Republicans like DeSantis and Trump thrive off of nationalized depictions of Democrats via slogans like “Don’t California my Florida!” If Florida Democrats can show that they’re deeply invested in local issues (rather than simply anointing saviors that fit the mold of the national Democratic party) they may actually stand a fighting chance. They will just need to be patient as it’s unlikely that Florida will lose new red hue overnight.

More from Battleground on Florida

• Learn more about how fears of socialism drive many Florida voters toward Republicans.

• Take a deeper dive into Florida’s contentious redistricting process.