Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - The economy of uncertainty

The US Federal Reserve’s job has gotten a lot tougher of late what with the fight against inflation now bumping up against fears of exacerbating fallout from recent bank closures. That was arguably evident in the central bank’s change in tone this week when it boosted interest rates by a quarter percentage point. The Fed said it was committed to price stability, but conceded it can’t be certain of the economic outlook or the flow of credit. Chair Jay Powell may now have the unenviable task of choosing a role model among his predecessors: Is he Paul Volcker, the slayer of inflation? Or Ben Bernanke, the crisis firefighter? The bond market seems to be saying that, either way, that long-predicted recession will finally happen this year—as will rate cuts. The Bank of England also pushed ahead with another rate increase this week, predicting the UK economy will avoid a downturn and that inflation remains a risk. While central banks may be nearing the top of their tightening cycle, “be careful what you wish for,” writes Jonathan Levin for Bloomberg Opinion. “The next round of problems is only beginning to bubble up.”

How safe is your money? That’s a question on the minds of many people after the recent upheaval. Three mid-sized US banks have fallen and a fourth is still teetering. And while Credit Suisse got scooped up by UBS, it didn’t seem to help financials. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told US lawmakers that regulators would be prepared for further steps to protect US deposits, and the European Central Bank said its banking sector is strong. But still, investors remain nervous for now. For businesses and consumers, higher interest rates and an economic slowdown could mean reduced access to credit, changes to rates on deposits or losses on investments. If you’re concerned about the safety of your savings, here are some pointers. 

The visit to Russia by Chinese leader Jinping Xi was billed as a diplomatic and public-relations lifeline to Vladimir Putin, ever-more-isolated and now facing war crimes charges. And it was very much Xi’s show, boosting his stature as the senior partner in the China-Russia relationship while apparently making no promises for weapons or a bigger natural gas deal. Xi’s proposal of a peace deal over Putin’s war on Ukraine was roundly dismissed by Kyiv and its allies as a way of rewarding Russian aggression. The US fears the deal, which it sees as a cynical strategy to help Putin, may diminish momentum in its effort to help Kyiv reclaim its territory. On Friday, the Kremlin announced it wants another 400,000 soldiers to replenish its decimated ranks.

TikTok Chief Executive Shou Chew’s testimony to Congress did little to calm bipartisan fury at the world’s largest social media app. If anything, it gave critics more fuel to insist the video sharing-service be banned in the US, arguing it’s used to spy on Americans. While ban legislation is moving forward, when it comes to blocking the app in the US, it’s unlikely Biden would do it before the 2024 election, writes Julianna Goldman in Bloomberg Opinion. It’s just too popular—and useful when it comes to reaching younger voters. 

Shou Chew, chief executive of TikTok, speaks during a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing in Washington this week. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Utah is the first state to enact laws meant to protect kids from the pernicious effects of social media, though the legislation has critics. Meantime, efforts to stop child exploitation and sex trafficking are ensnaring consenting-age Americans who make their living posting adult content online. And Teleperformance, the company used by TikTok and others to police feeds for illegal and harmful content, has backtracked on a pledge to give up reviewing extreme and egregious posts, citing the trauma caused by the job. 

Is Mexico safe for US travelers? The State Department hasn’t warned of increased danger after two American medical tourists were killed near the Texas border, though it did issue an alert for caution around spring break, when young Americans often do “stupid things,” one expert said. The National Gallery in London is examining the origins of modern art in a blockbuster exhibit. And finally our reviewer isn’t keen on the new musical Bad Cinderella, now showing in New York. Other potential title adjectives? “Prurient,” “non­sensical,” “overlong” and “icky,” Chris Rovzar writes in Bloomberg Pursuits.

Our reviewer says Bad Cinderella at least has truth in advertising going for it. Photo: Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman/Bloomberg.

• Another week during which Donald Trump may be indicted in New York.
• China Development Forum; Tim Cook will be  among the few US CEOs. 
• Fed’s preferred price gauge likely to show few signs of disinflation. 
• Euro-area preliminary March inflation as ECB battles price pressures.
• Walgreens reports amid fury over nod to GOP threats over abortion pills. 

The chaos that enveloped Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank heralds a new chapter for financial capitalism—one in which we must confront the reality that the rules of finance are going to change, write John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge in Bloomberg Opinion. This time, the restructuring of finance looks less likely to be about a big new set of rules than about a deeper change in the political mindset: an acceptance of a mercantilist form of finance, something Adam Smith would have abhorred but chimes all too well with the statist policies of modern geopolitics. 

The idea that finance is an arm of the state is back. Photographer: Photo illustration: Steph Davidson/Getty Images

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