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Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for April 7th in 3:09 minutes.

🪺 We’ve got two back-to-back public holidays here at Finimize HQ, so try not to miss us too much while we chow down on Easter eggs. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, after all – so you should be well and truly smitten by the time we hit your inbox again on April 12th.

Today's big stories

Friday’s US jobs data could be a big, tantalizing clue to the Fed’s next move
Our analyst broke down Microsoft’s fundamentals in just five steps – Read Now
Investors are plowing cash into money market funds like there’s no tomorrow

Hike And Seek

What’s Going On Here?

Friday's US jobs data could help spy out any upcoming interest rate moves.

What Does This Mean?

The monthly jobs report is always a hot topic for economists, and that's no wonder: when businesses thrive and up their headcounts, it usually means the sun’s shining on the economy too. And lately the jobs market has been sizzling – but there's a catch: pesky wage growth that adds fuel to inflation’s fire. That's been a headache for the Federal Reserve (the Fed) in its battle against price rises. So with economists predicting that nearly 250,000 jobs were added last month, keep an eye on how Friday's real numbers stack up: they might offer an insight into the Fed's next move.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Expecting the expected.
The labor market has shown signs of cooling off, mind you, with data out this week revealing that February had the fewest job vacancies since 2021. Given that companies often freeze hiring before layoffs, that could hint at changes in the broader jobs market. If that’s the case, and if Friday's numbers do miss expectations, the Fed might hold off on raising rates to avoid the risk of triggering an outright recession. In fact, ever since the job openings data came out, markets have been betting the Fed won’t hike rates at all next month.

The bigger picture: One hike to end them all.
If job growth does exceed expectations again, another 0.25-percentage-point hike could be on the table. But the Fed’s already dropped some serious hints that rate hikes are nearing their end, forecasting that it’ll fire off just one more volley this year. And with all the recent banking turmoil, anything bigger seems unlikely, unless the job numbers are truly jaw-dropping. The real risk, then, could be the Fed keeping rates high for longer than investors expect – which could hit corporate profits and stocks hard in the long run.

You might also like: Even if interest rates push higher, stocks could do just fine.

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Analyst Take

Watch An Analyst Value Microsoft’s Shares In Five Simple Steps

Carl Hazeley, Analyst

You could spend months researching a stock, devouring thousands of reports and running statistical analyses that PhD candidates have never heard of.

But it doesn’t have to be like that: my fellow analyst Paul recently put together a five-step template that helps you estimate any stock’s forward-looking figures in one simple process.

I’m going to give it a whirl with Microsoft, given that its stock’s been on a nice run recently.

If all goes well, I should come away with a decent understanding of what’s driven the second-biggest software giant’s past performance – and whether that’ll continue in the future.

So that’s today’s Insight: how I broke down Microsoft’s fundamentals in five steps, and what that tells me about the stock’s future.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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