What A Day: Recession progression obsession bull session

With persistent inflation, slower-than-desired economic growth, and more companies announcing layoffs, Americans are forced to wonder, once again, if we’re headed into a recession. 
 

• Not unlike our increasingly wrinkled faces, the U.S. economy is showing signs of stress. The latest GDP report from the Commerce Department on Thursday shows that American economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter. The economy is projected to slow even further in the coming months as rising prices coupled with higher interest rates take a toll on household budgets. McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said, “our base expectation for a mild recession in the U.S.,” even though the corporation has reported strong sales in 2023. 
   

• On the other hand, consumer personal spending appears strong enough to keep the economy going. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said, “The American consumer is the firewall between a recession and an economy that moves forward. And right now the firewall is holding firm.” Seems a little precarious if you ask me! That framing, true or not, puts an awful lot of onus on individual Americans when it seems like there may be some other culprits and larger forces that will determine whether or not we tip into a recession!
   

• Speaking! Of! Which! The sexy little bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and the resulting decrease in lending by other banks, coupled with the Fed continuing to increase interest rates, don’t create a rosy economic picture of the year to come. One of the telltale signs of a recession is rising unemployment, and while unemployment has remained surprisingly low, layoffs across various sectors have increased lately. Construction companies cut some 9,000 jobs last month, tech giants like Microsoft and Facebook have announced mass layoffs, and even profitable American mainstay corporations like McDonalds, Tyson Foods and General Motors have been cutting white-collar positions.

This is less-than-stellar news as we head into a needless hostage fight over the debt limit thanks to House Republicans.
 

• Led by Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Republicans have demanded huge spending cuts to vital government programs and agencies and other concessions as ransom for raising the debt limit, a perennial congressional obligation that they never seem to mind under Republican presidents. The White House has said repeatedly that it won’t be extorted into accepting any cuts under threat of defaulting on the debt, nor should it, but if Republicans don’t back down before the summer, the whole economy could enter freefall. All because Republicans are sad they lost the 2020 election. Sounds bad!
   

• Recession warnings began over a year ago, but thus far the economy has not contracted, let alone fallen off a cliff like it did in 2008. Instead, the economy has continued to (slowly) grow, inflation has declined, and unemployment, while trending ever slightly upward, remains near historic lows. The conflicting nature of the data we’re seeing has economists and experts split on whether the country is headed for a recession, or something more mild and akin to an “economic slump”—the “soft landing” that wonks have been praying for 

What is promising are reports showing that the unprecedented $5 trillion government stimulus to individual Americans and businesses in the first year of the pandemic did in fact help keep us above water. The U.S. economy is also not alone in having fought off a recession, other major economies in Europe and Asia have also beaten the odds though both the COVID-19 and Russia’s war on Ukraine. Back in January, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.9 percent, from its previous expectation of 2.7 percent. We hate to end on this boring note, but here goes: Recession? Only time will tell.

Crooked’s newest pod, Pod Save the UK is launching May 4th, and if you're interested in politics you're going to love this show. In a special bonus episode, the hosts of Pod Save America sat down with the Pod Save the UK hosts - Nish Kumar and Coco Khan - to tackle the really important issues like, what “chat shit, get banged” means, how to turn political outrage into action, and of course what really happened to the Queen’s corgis. 

For more of this crossover episode, watch now on the Pod Save the World Youtube or listen and subscribe to Pod Save The UK, wherever you get your podcasts to hear new episodes starting May 4th.

Seeing a fight over abortion rights on the horizon, the Republican-controlled Missouri Senate passed legislation on Thursday that would make it harder for voters across the state to approve amendments to the state constitution. Isn’t that convenient for them! This rules change passed along party lines, and would increase the vote threshold required for a constitutional amendment to pass via ballot initiative from a simple majority of 50 percent to (get out your pen and paper) either 57 percent of the vote or at least 50 percent of the statewide vote and a majority of those who voted in at least five of the state’s eight congressional districts. The latter part is important because Republicans gerrymandered the state to make sure they have majorities in most of the states districts, while packing Democrats into highly lopsided districts that contain Kansas City and St. Louis. So, Republicans can keep amending the state constitution with bare majorities, but Democrats need supermajorities. Ain’t that some bullshit? When the fight for abortion rights has been taken to state ballot initiatives, the pro-choice side has won again and again even in red states like Kentucky. This has triggered a deluge of GOP-sponsored bills that would raise the threshold for voters to pass citizen-led ballot measures. You know what they say: If at first you don’t succeed, rig the rules to squelch democracy!

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) threw his weight behind Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s heinous debt-limit extortion proposal, in a statement admonishing Biden for not coming to the table and negotiating with economic terrorists. Could it be that a certain West Virginia Senator is worried about his forthcoming re-election campaign??

Cloud storage provider Dropbox said Thursday it will cut 16 percent of its global workforce amid slowing growth in the cloud sector, and will instead hire new talent to build artificial intelligence offerings. 

A bipartisan Senate bill would ban children under 13 from social media entirely, and children ages 13-17 would be required to get parental consent. 

The 21-year-old Discord leak suspect Jack Teixeira appeared in court today as the judge presiding over his case considers whether he should remain in jail while awaiting trial. Recently-released court documents show that Teixeria (who, you may recall, had a top secret security clearance, was likely very close to carrying out a mass shooting. 

The Massachusetts state Supreme Court revived indictments against two former heads of a veterans’ home who had been charged with criminal neglect for their roles in handling an outbreak of COVID-19 that killed 84 residents. 

The GOP-led Kansas state legislature enacted the most sweeping transgender bathroom law in the United States today, overriding the veto of Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS). The House vote passed 84-40, giving Republicans exactly the two-thirds majority they needed to override the veto. This law is part of an onslaught of similar laws that Republicans have enacted in other states, but most of those laws apply only in schools. The Kansas law, which will take effect on July 1 of this year, also applies to locker rooms, prisons, domestic-violence shelters, and rape crisis centers. Republican lawmakers have sold this by fear mongering about transgender women sharing bathrooms, locker rooms, and other spaces with cis women and girls. The governor of North Dakota signed a similar bill into law on Wednesday. But the Kansas law also differs from other states in that it legally defines male and female based on sex assigned at birth. Many supporters of the law acknowledged before its passage that they have not considered how it will be enforced. We have a few guesses and they all involve harassment of and violence against trans people.

WHAT WE’RE LISTENING TO:
 

AMERICAN GENOCIDE, a new true crime podcast about the traumatic legacy of Native American boarding schools and whether it’s possible for a community, Native peoples, and the United States to achieve truth, healing, and reconciliation. 

AMERICAN GENOCIDE follows two Native women - IllumiNative's Crystal Echo Hawk (Pawnee) and Lashay Wesley (Choctaw) - who travel to the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota to chronicle how the dark history of Red Cloud Indian School has left a legacy of intergenerational trauma and caused a rift within the Oglala Lakota community.

The series is a gripping exploration of America’s attempt to reckon with its past, centering the stories of real Native people and the fallout from the historic abuse of Native children. 

Listen to the first TWO episodes at the link below, with new episodes launching every Wednesday through May 24:

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE NOW. 

This limited series is produced by our friends at IllumiNative, a Native women-led organization that builds power for Native peoples by amplifying contemporary Native voices, stories, and issues to advance justice, equity, and self-determination. 

You can find AMERICAN GENOCIDE on iTunes, Spotify, and other streaming platforms - and more on their website.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol surprised the White House delegation with a performance of Don McClean’s “American Pie.”

State-Rep. Zooey Zephyr (D-MT) is working from the hallway outside of the State House chambers after bigoted Republicans barred her from attending or speaking any sessions for the rest of the term. 

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) completed his final round of chemotherapy on Tuesday.