Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - The ‘X’ day cometh

There’s still no debt deal and the US’s so-called X date—when the country starts running out of cash and is forced to make painful cuts to social security payments and government payrolls—is coming into view. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has indicated early June—even as soon as June 1—is the day of default. The Congressional Budget Office has said the first two weeks of June are when the hammer will come down. And a new estimate from the Bipartisan Policy Center released Tuesday shows there’s an “elevated risk” of hitting the mark between June 2 and 13. Even Wall Street’s biggest banks—Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley—are waving the red flag for early June. But a few Republicans, who brought on the crisis by demanding steep budget cuts as the price for paying existing debt, are questioning the urgency of negotiations, suggesting default isn’t as close as White House officials say it is. It all underscores the same point: the US is getting closer to a self-induced economic catastrophe what was once unthinkable. It’s already costing taxpayers money and putting markets on edge, which were lower on the impasse. Late Tuesday, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the two sides had yet to reach a deal to avert a first-ever US default, and a top lieutenant said no more meetings are planned. —Margaret Sutherlin

Just a day after Russia claimed victory over the destroyed city of Bakhmut, Moscow claims it put down a rare cross-border attack near Belgorod, a key military hub at the Ukrainian border. Russia placed blame on Ukrainian militants, while Kyiv said it was an anti-Kremlin Russian militia. Either way, the battle was the most serious yet within Russia since the start of its war. Meanwhile, Kremlin-ally Viktor Orban said Hungary’s decision to block €500 million ($540 million) in aid for Ukraine was justified because, he says, the country couldn’t win against its invaders. 

Activist investor Carl Icahn is vowing to press on after a Hindenburg Research report accused his company of costly missteps and that it was overvalued. The fallout slashed $15 billion off of Ichan’s net worth. But tucked away in South Florida’s Billionaire Bunker, Icahn will concede one point: He didn’t see this coming. 

Carl Icahn Photographer: Courtesy of HBO

Three out of four financial professionals say their companies’ earnings would fall within the guidance they give investors. But a new analysis shows that isn’t exactly the case. Companies’ guidance is inaccurate 70% of the time on key numbers that influence investors. 

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has 15 months left to fulfill his promise to transform Mexico. Over the past four years, he’s created an environment where most business decisions must receive his seal of approval, all while weakening the regulators central to a perception of a stable and safe business environment. After the government seized a 120-kilometer stretch of a rail line last week, the business community—that until now has been enjoying a surge in foreign investment—is getting worried. 

In the past year, luxury companies—LVMH, Hermes, Kering—have become to the European stock market what Big Tech is to the US: a collection of dominant businesses whose growth has held up even as the economy waxes and wanes. But Tuesday, the sector lost over $30 billion. 

A Louis Vuitton store in Shanghai Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

After OPEC+ surprised crude traders last month by announcing output cutbacks intended to scare off speculators, Saudi Arabia’s top energy official issued another warning for short sellers: “I would just tell them: Watch out.”  Meanwhile, more than 100 US and European Union politicians are demanding the United Nations remove oil executive Sultan Al Jaber from the head of the annual climate change summit, COP.

Three years ago, the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a mass exodus of millions of women from the workforce. Now, they’re leading the recovery. There are more prime-age women than ever working in the US. 

• Trump’s hush money case set to go to trial in March 2024.
• Republcian Ron DeSantis to announce presidential run on Twitter.
• 3M will foot the bill to cleanup forever chemicals in the Netherlands. 
• Nearly 2,000 kids abused by Catholic ministry members in Illinois.
• Apple signed a multi-year deal with Broadcom for its 5G chips.
• Man arrested for ramming a truck into a White House barrier.
• Password sharers: Netflix is coming for you.

The Maasai have lived in the area around the Tanzania’s Serengeti National Park and Kenya’s Maasai Mara National Reserve for generations, driving cattle across the plains and moving frequently to find fresh grass. Last year, a dispute between locals and police ended with shots fired. The violence was the latest, and most severe, eruption in a long-simmering conflict involving Maasai, the Tanzanian government and a company called Otterlo Business, which the UN says operates hunting trips in the area for royals from the Emirates. 

Critics say the Tanzanian government doesn’t want Maasai herding cattle where safari-goers expect to see giraffes and elephants. Photographer: Adriane Ohanesian for Bloomberg Businessweek

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