How Abortion will Define the '24 Campaign
How Abortion will Define the '24 CampaignOne year ago, the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision changed American politicsOne year ago this weekend, an unelected, rigged Supreme Court voted to overturn Roe v. Wade and take away a constitutional right. Thanks to the Trump-era shift in the balance of the court and a leaked draft opinion, the decision was long expected. Yet, it still sent shockwaves through American politics — fundamentally changing the trajectory of the midterm elections. However, a year later it seems clear that the political impact of the Dobbs decision will last far beyond one election. Years from now, we may look back on this Supreme Court decision as one of the historical pivot points in American politics. In 2022, Democrats made access to abortion services and reproductive health care a centerpiece of the campaign. This strategy was wildly successful because the issue was top of mind for voters. Republican legislatures across the country were falling over themselves to pass extreme and unpopular laws, including outright bans with no exceptions and restrictions on access to abortion medication and the ability to travel out of state to access abortion. Across the country, Republicans spoke about prosecuting doctors and imprisoning women. Now, the Republicans intend to change the subject and push their extreme positions on abortion into the background. The polling since the reckless Dobbs decision shows just how impactful it has been and will likely be in 2024. 1. Abortion Won Democrats the MidtermsElections are dynamic enterprises that involve a million variables — the economy, the mood of the country, spending, candidate quality, etc. It is impossible — and foolhardy — to suggest that one singular factor was the reason for victory or defeat. But the evidence is clear. The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs fundamentally changed the trajectory of the midterms. Prior to the decision, the polling showed Democrats headed for a shellacking typical of a president’s first midterm. Anecdotally, everyone in the party was concerned about diminished enthusiasm among the base. Grassroots donations were lagging and volunteers were hard to recruit. People were exhausted by the non-stop crises of the Trump years and beaten down by the failure to pass Build Back Better and Voting Rights legislation. Then Dobbs happened. Previously complacent or disillusioned Democrats became highly engaged. Campaigns and political organizations were flooded with volunteers; and per the Associated Press, Democratic campaigns and causes raised $80 million in the first week after the decision. The impact of the decision persisted throughout the campaign. Catalist, the Democratic data firm publishing some of the best voter information in the business, wrote this in their report on the 2022 election:
The Supreme Court taking away a constitutional right is not the only reason Democrats won in 2022, but it is almost certainly the biggest reason... Keep reading with a 7-day free trialSubscribe to The Message Box to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. A subscription gets you:
|
Key phrases
Older messages
The Growing Threat from No Labels (and Others)
Friday, June 23, 2023
The emergence of third-party candidates could make the 2024 election look a lot like 2016.
Why Ron DeSantis Keeps Losing to Trump
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
The Florida Governor's terrible campaign explained
Trump Indictment: The Message Wars
Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Trump's legal situation is precarious, but he's maximizing his political position
Battling the Big Lie Out in Paperback Now!
Monday, June 12, 2023
Battling the Big Lie: How Fox, Facebook, and the MAGA Media are Destroying America is out in paperback! For those Message Box readers who bought the hardcover edition last year, thank you so much for
Why the MAGA Right Loves RFK Jr.
Monday, June 12, 2023
The Far Right is pushing a Kennedy to help the MAGA Movement
You Might Also Like
Building Muscle Over 50 Is Possible With Our New Workout Program
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Stop assuming that your age 50-plus workouts are only meant to maintain or stave off the sands of time. Yes, you do need to pay extra attention to your fitness level after you turn 50; the principle of
Can't build muscle? Change your diet, not your workout
Sunday, April 28, 2024
men's health shop logo The Best Meals to Build Muscle View in Browser A no-bullshit 3-week plan for big gains Building muscle is complex. It's about your workout, your nutrition, your hormones,
Chappell Roan is Taking Lesbian Pop to a New Dimension
Sunday, April 28, 2024
For fans, her music is as empowering as it is entertaining ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
30 Movies That Have Definitely Not Aged Well 😬
Sunday, April 28, 2024
4 Ways to Get the Most Out of Your Robot Vacuum. A journey through movies that we're a little embarrassed about. Not displaying correctly? View this newsletter online. TODAY'S FEATURED STORY 30
The Weekly Wrap #159
Sunday, April 28, 2024
04.28.2024 ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Weekend: Zuck’s New Look ⛓
Sunday, April 28, 2024
But first: an actually good grad gift — Check out what we Skimm'd for you today Subscribe Read in browser April 28, 2024 Daily Skimm Header Image Together with apple gift card But first: an
A Reading List for National Poetry Month 2024
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Our partners, sponsors, and advertisers present some of their titles to help celebrate National Poetry Month. View this email in your browser A Reading List for National Poetry Month 2024 Our 2024
Week Ahead Tarot Reading from 4/29 to 5/6 2024
Sunday, April 28, 2024
You will want to stay on task this week. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Inside the chaos response to Meghan Markle’s jampire
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Let her eat cake, and sell jam, and towels, and a cooking show, and…
6-Second Sunday: On rituals, doctor damage, and hard beds
Sunday, April 28, 2024
6 Ideas. 6 Second Skim. 6 Minute Read. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏