The loss of life from the Israel-Hamas war is already staggering: At least 1,300 people were killed by Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, most of them civilians, and authorities in Gaza say Israel’s response has left more than 2,300 people dead. As Israel prepares for a ground war to “destroy the rule of Hamas,” the world is watching—not only with fears about the humanitarian issues, but also concerns that the fight could escalate into a broader regional conflict with global implications.

Who else could get drawn into the war? Most likely to get involved is the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. There have already been isolated flare-ups along Israel’s border with Lebanon, highlighting the possibility of a proxy war with Iran. Other Iran-funded militia groups in Syria and Yemen could also join in as the fighting escalates—or Iran could directly confront Israel.

Concerns were heightened after Iran warned that if Israel continued to attack Gaza, Hezbollah would respond and “cause a huge earthquake” for Israel.

It’s a scenario that Israel and the US are hoping to prevent. Israel’s defense minister said yesterday that it’s not looking to fight on its northern border as long as Hezbollah “restrains itself.” The US has met directly with Arab leaders, called on Qatar and China to help limit the conflict’s spread, and even held back-channel talks with Iran.

In addition to its human toll, a broader Middle East conflict also has the potential to cause a global recession.

• The region’s status as a global energy hub means a direct fight between Israel and Iran could send the price of oil soaring—Bloomberg Economics estimates that oil prices could hit $150/barrel and spur a recession that shaves ~$1 trillion off the world’s economic output.

Future tense: With nations around the globe still reeling from high inflation, the impact of the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, reportedly called the situation a “new cloud on not the sunniest horizon for the global economy.”

Rite Aid files for bankruptcy. The 61-year-old drugstore chain, which has more than 2,000 locations across the US, sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday, as it was unable to find the money to settle the hundreds of lawsuits it’s facing over supplying opioids. Though larger than a mom-and–pop, Rite Aid is smaller than competitors like CVS and Walgreens—not to mention Amazon and Walmart, and it has struggled to keep up as sales have slumped. The company plans to restructure, closing several stores and installing a new top executive.

Australia rejects indigenous referendum. An attempt to recognize the indigenous people of Australia with a constitutional referendum was soundly rejected on Saturday, with ~60% of the country voting against it. Proponents of the “Voice to Parliament” referendum—including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese—wanted to give the country’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island people direct access to policymakers whose decisions affect their lives. Detractors said it would divide the country along racial lines and be a first step toward repatriation and compensation. Albanese said the country would have to seek a new way forward, while human rights advocates fear the outcome could set reconciliation efforts back by years.

Global election roundup: Three key elections took place around the world this weekend. 1) In Poland, exit polls show the opposition parties, which pledged to restore relations with the EU, won enough seats to swing the balance of power in parliament (the official vote tally is expected by tomorrow morning). 2) New Zealand took a step to the right, with the opposition National Party emerging victorious against Labour in the country’s elections. National leader Chris Luxon ran on the promise of lowering the cost of living and restoring law and order. 3) Daniel Noboa, the heir to a banana empire, won Ecuador’s presidency, defeating a leftist hand-picked by the nation’s outgoing president as voters sought a new approach to crime and the economy.

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Time for a card glow-up.

Taylor Swift is running out of entertainment venues to conquer.

The singer, actor, and Kansas City Chiefs fan has broken at least one box-office record as The Eras Tour concert film earned ~$95 million in its opening weekend, enough to make it the highest-grossing concert film of all time. We’ll learn later today if The Eras Tour earned the biggest October opening weekend of all time and surpassed 2019’s Joker, which made $96.2 million.

Look what you (movie studios) made her do. What makes Swift’s box-office performance even more impressive is how she pulled it off. She made an exclusive and direct distribution deal with AMC Theatre and Cinemark, eschewing the go-between studio system when she found the negotiations “disappointing.” According to Puck, Taylor’s father, Scott Swift, fronted between $10 million and $20 million to produce the film and hired Sam Wrench as director.

The Puck report also said the Swift–AMC deal gives the superstar 57% of the immense profits, while the movie theater chain pockets 43%. It could offer a blueprint for other cinemas looking to work around the studio distribution system and release content directly. Beyoncé struck a similar deal with AMC earlier this month to distribute the concert film from her Renaissance World Tour.

Dance like everyone’s watching. TSwift and AMC encouraged singing and dancing during the film, and many people have taken them up on that offer. However, some of the nation’s foremost experts in concert film theater etiquette have voiced their disapprobation of the practice.

Speaker saga continues: The House of Representatives returns to session, but it’s still without a speaker. Republicans nominated Jim Jordan on Friday before breaking for the weekend, but there are enough holdouts that his winning the position is far from a sure thing. It’s been nearly two weeks since Kevin McCarthy was ousted as retribution for working with Democrats to avoid a government shutdown. Without a speaker, Congress is unable to pass any legislation, but Democrats are pushing for expanding the authority of temporary Speaker Patrick McHenry, which would allow him to bring legislation to the floor on funding the government, Ukraine, and Israel.

Earnings season rolls on: Netflix and Tesla join a busy Q3 earnings week with their reports on Wednesday. Netflix will reveal how its crackdown on password sharing is going, while Tesla aims to boost confidence after it sold fewer vehicles than expected last quarter. Other big names reporting this week include Goldman Sachs, American Express, and AT&T.

Killers of the Flower Moon hits theaters: The much-anticipated film opens for wide release on Friday and brings Oscar buzz with it. Based on the 2017 best-selling novel of the same name, the film stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro and is directed by superhero movie enthusiast Martin Scorsese. The plot centers around the murders of members of the Osage Tribe in Oklahoma after oil was discovered on tribal land.

Everything else…

• The World Series draws closer, and the ALCS and NLCS will both be in full swing today. In the American League, it’s a battle of Texas with the Rangers taking on the Astros. In the National League, the Diamondbacks face the Phillies, who could be eight wins away from sending the country into a recession.
• It’s National Boss’s Day today. Feel free to fire up a Bruce Springsteen album.

Stat: US Olympic gymnastics legend and Naked Gun 33⅓ star Mary Lou Retton’s family called on the public to help with her medical bills as she battles a rare pneumonia. The response was overwhelming—she received $350,000 in less than two days, shattering the initial goal of $50,000. Retton is improving. Some have questioned why the sports star didn’t have health insurance, but asking strangers to help pay off medical debt is a familiar story in the US: More than 250,000 people launch crowdfunding campaigns for medical bills each year on GoFundMe, and medical expenses account for about one-third of the $5 billion the company said it has raised. But 16% of the time, the campaigns generate no donations.

Quote: “Look at your face, look at your eyes. I’m the YouTuber and you’re the boxer, I understand, you have to win.”

KSI said that to Tommy Fury after narrowly losing the latest crossover boxing event between influencer and professional on points. The social media star called the decision a “robbery” and demanded a rematch. Some believed the winner of this match would face influencer boxing darling Jake Paul, but the victorious Fury said he was done with the “crossover bull—.”

Read: Why culture has come to a standstill. (The New York Times)

Mental health: Therapists discuss the best ways to deal with the Israel-Hamas war from afar.

Be lazy: The case for letting leaves pile up in your yard.

Cutting edge: Learn if your knife is nuts sharp or scary sharp with this guide.

Well-rounded: A woodworker’s take on the history of wheels and the building of the pyramids.

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