Hi! I’m keeping my promise so far: sending out one of these every time I have a new piece published. Today, I wrote about what we can learn from only eight games of Premier League soccer — and how we might be able to learn more by looking beyond the beginning of the season:

But how about expected goals, or xG, the much more powerful indicator of team quality and future performance?

The ultimate title-winner has been the top team in non-penalty xG differential at even strength in three of the past five seasons. That was Man City, last year, the year before that and in 2018-19. They also had the best xG differential in 2019-20, when Liverpool went on their tear. As for 2020-21, the xG leader after eight games was, uh, Jose Mourinho's Tottenham, who ultimately finished the season in sixth place. Perhaps we can chalk that up to the combined volatility of Mourinho's dated managerial style and the COVID-season played in front of empty stadiums.

For the top-four race, the hit-rate improves upon just looking at points. A full 14 of the 20 teams in the top four of even-strength non-penalty xG differential ultimately ended up in the top four. That's a 70% hit rate. At this point, it becomes easier to just list the teams who ultimately didn't do it: Liverpool last season, Wolves and Man United (I don't know, man) the season before that, Tottenham and Brighton in 2020-21 and Brighton in 2019-20.

Have a great weekend, all.