Is it though? As I’ve discussed earlier here on Battleground, a majority of middle class voters feel that they are not seeing the benefits of President Joe Biden’s economic plan. Meanwhile, Biden’s supporters are convinced that Bidenomics is working just fine and instead believe that the problem is simply messaging and time. As Sen. Angus King puts it, “It takes time for people to sort of absorb the fact that we’re in very good shape.”

But are Americans in good shape? Or is America in good shape? Because while our country consistently evades a recession when measured by traditional macroeconomic indicators, Americans are behaving as though the recession has already arrived. When our leaders can’t seem to hear the economic struggles of everyday people, they lead our country into what I call our ‘Silent’ Recession.

What is a Silent Recession?

A “silent recession” refers to an economic disparity where a majority of the population experiences economic hardship that is not reflected in traditional markers of a recession like GDP contraction or rising unemployment.

It is a new term to describe our current economic reality, one that economists widely acknowledge is ‘weird’ due to the way it has failed to follow previously established economic trends. It is a symptom of our leaders’ refusal to address wealth inequality. As fewer and fewer people hold ever-larger proportions of American wealth, metrics that measure the health of our economy increasingly only reflect the status of the power players at the top of the economic ladder. Conversely, as the majority of Americans at the bottom of society lose economic power, recession metrics become less reflective of the average Americans’ economic reality.

Let’s walkthrough some economic data that paint two opposing economic outlooks: one reflecting the economic health of America as a country and the other reflecting the economic malaise of American citizens.

Recession? Our Leaders Can’t Hear it…

“According to the [Federal Reserve’s] consumer finance survey the [average] net worth of an American household, adjusted for inflation, was $1.06 million in 2022… Yet when looking at the median… the typical American household was worth significantly less: $192,000.” -Journalist Orianna Rosa Royle, Fortune

The quote above strikes right at the heart of the disconnect between the economic health of the country and the economic health of everyday citizens. When looking at the economy in aggregate, we’re on track for the ‘soft landing’ economists have hoped for. As mentioned earlier, the United States beat expectations and saw 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 2023. Economists are also pointing to consistently rosy job reports and a historically low unemployment rate as further evidence that ‘Bidenomics’ is indeed working. They’re also trumpeting the “resilience” of the American consumer as consumer spending is constantly cited as the economic driver keeping our nation afloat. But consumers are not spending more because they’re flush with savings and ready to splurge; they’re spending more on basics like groceries, utilities and rent due to inflation. Corporate CEOs see this as a good thing because rising prices are still leading to record profits. But when 92% of Americans have cited that they’ve been forced to pull back on their spending due to higher prices, the reality is plainly exposed: Americans are spending more for less.

Can You Hear The Recession?

When looking beyond aggregate economic data and consulting actual Americans on how they’re fairing economically in their everyday lives, there’s growing evidence that a majority of Americans are worse off economically than they were during the Great Recession of 2008-09.

During the last recession, 30% of Americans responded to a Gallup poll saying that they have put off medical care in the last 12 months due to economic hardship. That has now jumped to 38% of respondents delaying medical care because they can’t afford it. (FYI, that is the highest on record since Gallup started asking the question in the early 1990s.) With interest rates higher than they’ve been in decades, delinquencies on car loans are above Great Recession levels hitting their highest since 1996. And as the holidays are approaching, a staggering 77% of Americans are adjusting their holiday plans solely due to rising costs.

And what’s most worrisome is that this is happening when Americans are working now more than ever. As mentioned above, the unemployment rate recently hit historic lows not seen in over 50 years. And not only do Americans have jobs, many of us have multiple jobs and data shows that record numbers of Americans are overworking themselves just to afford the bare necessities. More than half of young Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck and the biggest kicker of them all: roughly half of Americans say they’re worse off economically in 2023 than in 2022. (The only other time this occurred in Gallup’s 47 years of asking this question was, you guessed it, during the Great Recession.)

‘Greedflation’ is to blame

The reason why political leaders, economists, and even our president can’t seem to hear the hardship experienced by millions of Americans is because they’re too busy listening to CEOs and shareholders who have been soaked with record profits for the last few years. Businesses have reaped these profits primarily due to their refusal to pass wealth on to the workers who are responsible for creating it. That leads to our current top-down economic outlook where businesses beat expectations and prop up the country’s GDP, while millions of Americans are out striking for a livable wage. As wealth inequality continues to grow unchecked, our normal metrics for determining a recession are increasingly less reflective of the economic health of ALL Americans.

So the next time you encounter economic data, pay close attention to exactly what is being measured. Because we’re currently in the ‘choose-your-own adventure’ phase of our ‘silent’ recession: you can choose to reckon with the reality that a majority of Americans are struggling economically or you can cling to the truth that billionaires and corporations are propping up America’s economy. But no matter which path you pick they both lead to a point where we will be forced to answer the growing calls for help that some are unable (or unwilling) to hear.

Leftover Links

• According to the USDA, food insecurity is increasing at a rate not seen since the Great Recession.

• While rising interest rates were meant to cool inflation, instead they’re trapping ordinary Americans under insurmountable levels of debt.

• And of course, the resumption of student loan repayment is only making a bad economic situation even worse for millions of Americans.