No Mississippi Governor has ever faced a runoff election; incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves could be the first. Reeves is currently the most unpopular governor in the country as the only American governor with an approval rating below 50%. This could pose a problem for Reeves as Mississippi just changed its election rules, shifting away from a state-level electoral college to a simpler general election-runoff format. Simply put, if Tate Reeves is unable to beat his current approval rating on Election Day, he will become the first governor to face a runoff in Mississippi’s history.

Presley v. Reeves

First, let’s recap Mississippi’s current gubernatorial race up to this point. Gov. Tate Reeves is unpopular in part because of a sprawling welfare fraud scandal that has been brought to light during his administration. In February 2020, the Mississippi State Auditor arrested several government workers for mishandling federal funds distributed by the Mississippi Department of Human Services. Most famously, Brett Favre has been implicated as part of the scandal as he lobbied government workers to funnel said fraudulent funds to support him and his family through payments for speaking engagements and even monetary support for the volleyball program at his daughter’s college. While Reeves was not the sitting governor at the time that the scandal took place in the late 2010s, he was the state’s lieutenant governor and had previously served as the state’s treasurer. The scandal has become an albatross for his campaign as he’s been heavily scrutinized about his knowledge of and involvement in the fraud scheme as more is brought to light.

Meanwhile, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley entered the gubernatorial race with an explicit call to unseat Reeves and root out corruption in state government. His familial connection to Elvis Presley almost immediately faded into the background as he waged an offensive campaign that criss-crossed the state. (Roughly 20 days before Election Day, he completed his goal of visiting every single county in Mississippi, 82 in total.) Presley has also directly challenged Reeves to as many as five debates in the final month of the campaign. Reeves has been following the Trump-era Republican playbook of avoiding those debates, leading Presley to debate empty chairs for what some are calling “empty chair October.”

A state electoral college? That was a thing…?

Back in 2020, Mississippi voters approved Ballot Measure 2 which amended the state constitution to eliminate their state-level electoral college. No, this has nothing to do with the federal Electoral College used to pick the president. Instead for over a century, Mississippi actually had its own electoral college that was used if a candidate running for state office failed to achieve a clear majority of votes.

(Mississippi’s electoral win conditions were actually much more complicated than just getting a majority of the popular vote: a winning candidate also needed to win a majority of the state House representative districts. If they failed to win a majority of districts but still won the popular vote, the state electoral college still select the winner.)

Mississippi’s state electoral college had only ever picked the state’s governor once throughout its existence. In 1999, Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove came up short in winning enough state House districts, forcing the Mississippi House of Representatives to pick between Musgrove and his Republican challenger Michael Parker. The decision ultimately fell upon partisan lines with all 86 sitting Democrats supporting Musgrove and the 36 Republicans voting for Parker, leading Musgrove to become Governor.

Following the change to the state constitution, Mississippi’s gubernatorial candidates will instead face a runoff election between the top two candidates if no candidate reaches a simple majority of the popular vote. (The requirement to win a majority of state House districts has been completely eliminated, in part due to claims that this clause was only implemented to disenfranchise Black voters.)

Gwendolyn Gray: Spoiler or Savior?

While Presley v. Reeves is the most practical lens to view the current governor’s race, the two men are not the only candidates on the ballot. Gwendolyn Gray, a local community leader from Starkville, is the sole independent listed on the ballot. She received almost no media attention throughout the campaign and just weeks ago announced that she was suspending her campaign and endorsing Presley. Importantly, since Gray dropped out of the race so late in the campaign, her name will still appear on the ballot for voters to select. This is an incredibly important wrinkle for the Reeves campaign to navigate due to the slim chance her presence could lead Reeves to fall just under the majority vote needed to avoid a runoff.

Recent campaign polling has mirrored Gov. Reeves’ struggles seen in his approval ratings. While he reliably polls above Presley by as much as 10 points, he consistently lands right at the line of 50% support of likely voters. Since Reeves is so unpopular, there’s a slim chance that a small yet impactful group of voters could lodge protest votes for Gray as a way of showing disapproval for Reeves without supporting Democrats either.

Could Presley Win a Runoff? That’s a Different Question…

While forcing Reeves into a runoff would be both historic and an embarrassment for Republicans, the chances that it would ultimately lead to a Presley win are incredibly slim. Since Gray vocally endorsed Presley after shuttering her campaign, it’s likely that her voters have already shifted to supporting Presley, therefore a runoff wouldn’t necessarily open up a new base of persuadable voters for Democrats to court.

A runoff would simply allow Presley to pray for a hail-mary pass in overtime that shifts moderate Republicans in his favor. Much like the Georgia runoffs following the 2020 election weren’t widely expected to go to Democrats, President Trump helped shift the needle away from his party with his lies regarding election interference. While Presley likely isn’t expecting the former president to get involved, putting more time on the clock means all options are still on the table. And as the national Republican party stages its own civil war in the US House with a government shutdown looming yet again, the three weeks between Election Day (Nov 7) and the scheduled runoff date (Nov 28) just might have enough surprises to tip things in Presley’s favor. But before that can be entertained, the question must be answered: how unpopular is Governor Tate Reeves and will he be forced into a runoff?

Leftover Links

• Learn more about Mississippi’s old electoral college law and its racial implications.