Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Can China win?

Washington and Taipei have been bracing for a potential Chinese move on Taiwan for years, an invasion some have predicted could come before the end of the decade. While Beijing denies any such timeline, the opposing militaries have long trained for that day as tensions over the island’s future rise. Still, for all the billions of dollars spent building advanced weaponry and modernizing Chinese forces, there are doubts at the most senior levels of China’s military and government that the People’s Liberation Army is ready for battle. Beijing’s worries about its own capabilities have only grown as Russia remains mired in its war on Ukraine 20 months after a botched invasion. Vladimir Putin and his military, and many Western analysts and governments, had assumed that war would be quick. While China has made extraordinarily rapid progress in military hardware, from aircraft carriers to hypersonic missiles, its ability to translate that into effective combat operations remains a major weakness—especially if any fighting has to be sustained. —David E. Rovella

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are touting pill versions of their blockbuster weight-loss drugs that could come as soon as next year. But if you’re expecting something cheaper and with fewer side effects, think again. Obesity pills under development have some major shortcomings in ease of use and side effects that patients may not be prepared for.

In the US housing market, new buyers get crushed by 8% mortgage rates while earlier borrowers cling gratefully to loans of less than 3%. Missing from this story is a third, even more fortunate group: the rapidly growing number of Americans who own their homes outright. The share of US homes that are mortgage-free jumped 5 percentage points from 2012 to 2022, to a record just shy of 40%. More than half of these owners have reached retirement age. Freedom from mortgage debt gives them the option to age in place—or  uproot to sunnier climes.

The criminal ransomware gang behind the recent attack on the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China has claimed responsibility for two more hacks on US financial firms. The Lockbit gang, which has been linked to Russia, added the Chicago Trading Company and Alphadyne Asset Management this week to a list of victims on its darkweb page. The gang has given them deadlines to make an unspecified payment, and is threatening to publish stolen data online if its demands aren’t met.

Sam Altman, one of the most prominent figures in the world of artificial intelligence, is leaving OpenAI as the company’s board said it had lost confidence in him as a leader. “Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities,” the company said in a statement. “The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.” Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati will serve as OpenAI’s interim CEO.

Sam Altman  Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Several Tesla shareholders rebuked CEO Elon Musk for endorsing antisemitic views on his social media platform X, with some saying he should be suspended. “While I believe in free speech, there’s no excuse for the spreading of hatred by any CEO of any publicly traded company,” said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust, which held about 16,000 Tesla shares as of Sept. 30. “Tesla’s board should place him on leave for a month or two.”

The backlash against Musk is spreading. The White House condemned his actions as an “unacceptable” act that endangers Jewish communities. The administration said Musk’s posts were especially harmful, given the spike in antisemitic incidents following Hamas’ Oct. 7 killing of 1,200 Israelis and Israel’s ensuing invasion of the Gaza Strip. Companies including Lions Gate Entertainment have suspended all advertising on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

A federal judge in Washington rejected Donald Trump’s request to strike language from the indictment in his election subversion prosecution that refers to the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, attack by his followers. US District Judge Tanya Chutkan on Friday found that Trump failed to show that the text of the charging document was likely to prejudice jurors. The Republican presidential candidate faces almost 100 felony counts in four separate indictments in state and federal court related to accounting fraud, his handling of top secret documents and his alleged attempt to overthrow the 2020 election. He has pleaded not guilty in all four cases.

• Why Hezbollah is keen to avoid war with Israel.
• Israel says it may extend Hamas war to the southern half of Gaza.
• Powell’s Fed sticks together for inflation fight despite differences.
• UAW contracts at Ford, Stellantis near approval by wide margins.
• Amazon is firing hundreds of employees from its Alexa division.
• Ivy League backlash draws money, students to a Texas university.
• Manchester United gets equity value of $5.4 billion in new offer.

There are a few ways to interpret the news that the annual November New York auctions sold more than $2 billion worth of art in the last two weeks. The first is to admire the sheer amount of money that changed hands: About $175 million at Phillips, $864 million at Christie’s and a bit more than $1 billion at Sotheby’s—a total helped significantly by the $139 million sale of a single Picasso painting. “When you’re in a place where the rest of the world feels very fragile and very uneasy, and you see this much art sold without any real sort of catastrophes, that has to be summarized by saying that this is a solid market,” says the adviser Abigail Asher.

Paul Cezanne’s Fruits et pot de gingembre, from 1890-93. Source: Christie’s

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