Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Skip the bonds

After the beating they’ve taken in bonds over the last two years, investors could be forgiven for wondering if it was ever a good idea to rely on fixed income in the first place. Now there’s new research that validates such suspicions, and upends some serious conventional wisdom when it comes to building that retirement nest egg. A group of academics set out to test the old chestnut about how a diversified portfolio of bonds and stocks is the best way to save for the future. What they found was that a mix of half domestic, half international equities actually beat blended portfolios in both money made and capital preserved. With fixed income suffering subpar returns amid the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, some have argued traditional investing advice needs a rethink. “As long as the equity investors are able to stick it out,” says study co-author Scott Cederburg at the University of Arizona, “they end up being better off with very high probability than somebody who’s trying to smooth out those short-term movements by diversifying into bonds.” —David E. Rovella

With just a few weeks left in the year, we can start looking back on 2023 and come to a conclusion about who was right, and who lost money. It turns out that for all the hair pulling about stocks and the Fed and rate cuts and so on and so forth, buying and holding equities was the winning strategy. The tried-and-true trounced 22 technical strategies used by traders to navigate their ups and downs, paying off handsomely given that the S&P 500 hit its low back on Jan. 5 only to climb steadily to its highest point on, well, today. While charting tools are rarely used in isolation, their lousy performance highlights the pain for anyone who heeded selling signals. “There was a lot of noise and a lot of reasons to be nervous this past year,” said Dylan Kremer, chief investment officer at Certuity. “But if you’re a long-term investor, sometimes the hardest thing to do is sit on your hands.”

China’s top leaders pledged to strengthen fiscal support at a meeting Friday that lent weight to economists’ expectations for a growth goal of around 5% for next year. While that would be the same as this year’s objective, in practice it would be tougher to achieve, because 2023 had the benefit of a weak base of comparison due to coronavirus restrictions.

With more than 17,000 Palestinians killed and almost two million displaced according to Gaza officials and the United Nations, 13 of the 15 members of the United Nations Security Council on Friday voted in favor of a resolution calling for a cease-fire. Israel’s closest ally, the US, vetoed the resolution. The UK abstained. Meanwhile, the US is considering launching its own military action against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels in response to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

The European Union reached a tentative deal on a gas regulation enabling countries to effectively ban Russian shipments of liquefied natural gas without new energy sanctions. The European Parliament and the EU Council endorsed on Friday part of a package that sets common rules for natural gas, renewable gases and hydrogen, preparing the bloc to move away from fossil fuels. The measure would allow member governments to temporarily prevent Russian and Belarusian exporters from booking the infrastructure capacity needed for the shipments of LNG and natural gas.

After more than a decade-long wait, it’s looking likely the first-ever spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will soon arrive in the US. But Securities and Exchange Commission approval is actually where the real story begins. Who among the dozen or so issuers that have filed so far will even make it off the blocks? How will these ETFs differentiate themselves? Who exactly are the prospective investors? Listen to the Bloomberg podcast Trillions for the answers to these questions and more.

Another blow for Apple. The executive in charge of product design for the iPhone and smartwatch is stepping down, bringing a shake-up to the company’s most critical product lines. Tang Tan, whose title is vice president of product design, is said to be leaving in February. The iPhone and Apple Watch are central to Apple’s operations, accounting for well over half of the tech giant’s revenue last year. People familiar with Apple’s operations say the Tan departure is a blow, and that he made critical decisions about Apple’s most important products.

Americans are rushing to Portugal to get ahead of changes in tax policy that will eliminate financial benefits for expats who relocate there. An end to tax breaks for so-called “non-habitual residents” is part of a broader push to address the country’s housing crisis. Portugal attracted a flood of transplants during the pandemic, thanks to cheaper property prices, a warm climate and beneficial tax and visa programs. But political pressure tied to rising housing prices has fueled a recent crackdown on perks for foreigners. The looming elimination of the tax breaks has many scrambling to file paperwork to make sure they qualify for the program, which can save people hundreds of thousands of euros.

Tourists and diners in the Cais do Sodre district of Lisbon, Portugal Photographer: Goncalo Fonseca/Bloomberg

• US Speaker threatened by fellow far-right Republicans on Ukraine aid.
• Bluebird falls after sickle-cell gene therapy gets strictest FDA warning.
• SmileDirectClub to liquidate after last-ditch sale effort fails.
• Bloomberg Opinion: The age of fast, free shipping is about to end.
• Use of apps with AI that undresses women in photos soars.
• The scandals of celebrity chef José Andrés’s disaster response nonprofit.
• The record rush to buy a Rolex or a Patek Philippe is over.

Just in time for the holidays, Bloomberg’s Michael Croley has the lowdown on a few tools that give golfers what they need most. Whether it’s a break for your back, a shock to the wrist, a clear view for your eyes or simply a boost in your step, these are items you may want someone to stick under the tree.

Puttr Smart indoor putting green Photographer: Madewell Photography

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