We have a three-and-maybe-four-team title race in the Premier League. I broke it down:

Add all of those seasons together, and the "best" team has won 21 of the past 30 league titles -- or about 70% of the domestic-league trophies across the Big Five. This isn't how math works, but, were a team without the best underlying numbers to win the Premier League this season, it would be right in line with that rate: two "upset" winners from seven years.

On top of that, the degree to which City are the "best" team has shrunk, at least to start the season. Over a full campaign with Guardiola in charge, they've never had a per-game non-penalty xG differential below plus-1, and they're currently at plus-0.86. They've been worse through 16 games a few times, though -- one season (2019-20) they still easily won the league, and in the other (2016-17) they finished third.

City, then, are as vulnerable as they've ever been.

I was also on ESPN FC Live today to talk about the title race and Sunday’s game between Liverpool and Manchester United. Oh, and I competed in a quiz about Liverpool players against a guy who played over 450 games … FOR LIVERPOOL:

Have wonderful weekends, all.