Good morning and Happy Groundhog Day. Our nation’s rodent prophet laureate, Punxsutawney Phil, will deliver his weather forecast today, and if you’re unsure what to wager in the office pool, here are some historical Phil stats to help, per the York Daily Record. Since 1887…
- Phil has predicted longer-lasting winters 107 times and early springs 20 times, while for 10 years we don’t have records and once he was a no-show. That means he’s forecast longer winters in 84% of his known predictions.
- He’s also called for longer winters for the past three years.
We like the over(bite).
—Molly Liebergall, Cassandra Cassidy, Matty Merritt, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman
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Nasdaq
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15,361.64
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S&P
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4,906.19
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Dow
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38,519.84
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10-Year
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3.863%
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Bitcoin
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$43,095.14
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Ferrari
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$389.45
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*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 11:00pm ET.
Here's what these numbers mean.
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Markets: Stocks made a big turnaround yesterday, with all three major indexes in positive territory as Wall Street recovered from the Fed tempering expectations on interest rate cuts earlier this week. Ferrari raced to a 52-week high after it topped revenue expectations and announced that star driver Lewis Hamilton would join its F1 team in 2025.
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TECH
Apple’s computer for your face is finally here
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Apple
Tech enthusiasts and/or their assistants are spending this morning like it’s 2007: lined up outside Apple Stores for the new gadget that’s supposed to change everything.
The long-awaited Vision Pro hits Apple’s shelves in the US today. While early reviews are mixed, the Vision Pro still has the potential to deliver wearable tech’s “iPhone moment”…if Apple can convince customers that its device is worth $3.5k and the immeasurable price of looking like you just got your eyes dilated.
This could be a turning point for the entire tech industry. Despite the best efforts of companies like Meta and Samsung, augmented-, virtual-, and mixed-reality headsets haven’t taken off as anything more than novelty gadgets for gamers. Apple thinks it can be the one to change this by marketing the Vision Pro as a must-have tool for both work and play that will usher in an era of what Apple calls “spatial computing,” aka working in a 3D virtual space instead of on a computer (think Tony Stark in his garage).
It’s possible that Apple has already sold ~180k headsets in preorders, but it only expects to sell 400,000 total units this year. Still, that equates to $1.4 billion in sales.
What it’s like to use the Vision Pro
The headset comes with 600 specialized apps but is crucially missing Meta, Netflix, Spotify, Google, and YouTube. Avatar director and technology shaman James Cameron nonetheless called his demo a “religious” experience, while other reviewers who got early access let out some “oohs” and “aahs,” along with caveats:
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Pros: The 23-million-pixel visuals, namely Vision Pro’s immersive content and theater mode, really are all that, according to John Gruber. Navigating the screen with your eyes is pretty cool, too, Casey Newton wrote.
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Cons: Downsides include the virtual keyboard, the killjoy battery pack, isolation (it’s a one-person device), a potentially minimal effect on productivity, and size/weight (it’s heavier than an 11-inch iPad Pro, according to The Verge).
Is there no going back? After trying out the Vision Pro, some reviewers said their regular 2D devices felt outdated.—ML
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When incredibly valuable assets come up for sale, it’s typically the wealthiest people who end up taking home an amazing investment. But not always…
One platform is taking on the billionaires at their own game, buying up some of history’s most prized blue-chip artworks. Their investors have already realized annualized net returns of 17.8%, 21.5%, 35%, and more.
It’s called Masterworks. Their nearly $1b collection includes artists like Banksy, Picasso, and Basquiat. So far, every one of Masterworks’ 20 exits has returned a profit to investors, totaling more than $50m in payouts.
Offerings can sell out in minutes, but Morning Brew readers can skip the waitlist to join with this exclusive link.
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Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Biden issued an executive order imposing sanctions on violent Israeli settlers. The unprecedented move aims to punish Israeli settlers and officials who have attacked Palestinians in the West Bank. According to the UN, since Oct. 7, there have been at least 500 attacks, which have killed at least eight Palestinians. The order allows the Biden administration to freeze settlers’ US assets and bank accounts and leaves the door open to sanction Israeli politicians. It came down shortly before President Biden celebrated his UAW endorsement in Michigan, a state with a large population of Arab Americans, many of whom have been angered by his support of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
Three of the Magnificent Seven reported earnings. Apple, Amazon, and Meta released their latest financials yesterday, and the vibes were swell. All three beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with Amazon reporting a gargantuan $170 billion for Q4 2023. Meta announced it will pay out its first-ever dividend to shareholders, sending its stock soaring in after-hours trading. And Apple reported a revenue increase for the first time in a year as it prepares to launch the Vision Pro mixed-reality device today. Apple, however, also revealed a 13% sales decline in China amid local competition with Huawei.
EU approved $54 billion deal to fund Ukraine. The European Union announced yesterday that its leaders authorized the fund, which will be used to support Ukraine in its war against Russia through 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the country’s resources will soon run out if it doesn’t receive financial assistance. The deal had been blocked by Hungarian prime minister and Putin ally, Viktor Orban, but he dropped his opposition. It wasn’t clear if Orban received anything in exchange for allowing the deal to go through, the New York Times reported. The US is considering its own deal to further aid Ukraine, but it’s been hindered by Republicans in Congress.
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SpongeBob SquarePants/Paramount Global
Commercial real estate has been on the struggle bus since the pandemic hit in 2020, and now it’s taking regional banks along for the ride.
Yesterday, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) shares took an 11% tumble—on top of a 38% plunge on Wednesday—after the bank said it’s dealing with surging losses from office buildings and multifamily apartment buildings. It’s a sign that commercial real estate (CRE) lenders are reckoning with the fact that they might not get their money back as commercial landlords struggle with high vacancies and interest rates:
- More than $2.2 trillion in US commercial property loans will come due by 2027, according to the Wall Street Journal.
- The default risk is worse for regional banks, where CRE loans make up nearly 29% of all assets, versus 6.5% at big national banks.
Deja vu? The KBW Regional Banking Index dropped 9.2% since Wednesday, the most since Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse last year. (Coincidentally, most of the assets of Signature Bank, which failed shortly after SVB, were bought by NYCB.)
Zoom out: It’s not just a problem in the US. A small bank in Tokyo and another in Switzerland also reported troubles this week.—CC
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Speak a new language by springtime. With Babbel, you can start building the language skills you want—fast. Level up your language game with quick, practical conversational skills using app-based lessons, games, podcasts, videos, and even live online classes. Get 55% off for a limited time.
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ENTERTAINMENT
The Vegas Sphere is turning into a Gen X paradise
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@deadandcompany/Twitter
The Las Vegas Sphere is ready to jam. Dead & Company will be the Sphere’s third residency starting in May, the band announced yesterday, accompanied by a video of the $2.3 billion orb wrapped in one of the many Grateful Dead logos.
The group, which includes Grateful Dead members Bob Weir and Mickey Hart alongside early aughts villain and guitar virtuoso John Mayer (and others), just finished what they said was their final tour last year. But this residency isn’t technically a tour—it’s a mere 18-show Sin City installation, joining a growing list of dad-friendly rockers that includes Phish and U2.
There’s a lot going on in Vegas
Even more than usual. Earlier this week, the owner of the historic Tropicana Las Vegas hotel and casino said it would be torn down after six decades to make way for the new $1.5 billion stadium for Major League Baseball’s Oakland Athletics.
Meanwhile, this month’s Super Bowl is expected to help smash December’s record-setting ~$1.4 billion raked in by the city’s casinos. Brands are already wrapping entire buildings in ads: Doritos turned the Luxor’s pyramid facade into a chip.—MM
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Carol Lee Rose/Getty Images
Quote: “I’m sorry, but there aren’t a lot of smart executives anymore...y’all aren’t creative people. Stick to the money.”
Insecure co-creator and star Issa Rae, as her recent Time magazine profile put it, did not mince words in her assessment of modern Hollywood executives. Rae, whose edgy Max comedy series Rap Sh!t was canceled last month after two seasons, said the network’s parent company, WarnerMedia, would never greenlight a show like that now because execs play it way too safe. Her comments came a day after Dune director Denis Villeneuve, in a Time profile of his own, came to a similar conclusion about Hollywood decision-making. “We’re in a very conservative time; creativity is restricted,” he said. “Everything’s about Wall Street. What will save cinema is freedom and taking risks.”
Stat: Rates of syphilis in the US haven’t been this high since the 1950s. Per the CDC, cases of the sexually transmitted infection are up almost 80% since 2018, continuing a long-running trend across every age group. Cases of congenital syphilis, when a mother passes an infection to the fetus, have skyrocketed 937% in the last decade. Experts say increases in substance use, decreases in condom use, and fewer sexual health clinics are to blame. The CDC also said the burden that the Covid-19 pandemic put on public health resources likely exacerbated the issue. It’s not all bad news, though: Cases of gonorrhea fell 9% in 2022, the first decline in a decade.
Read: How 23andMe’s valuation went from $6 billion to nearly zero. (Wall Street Journal)
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The feeling of getting a 5/5 on the Brew’s Weekly News Quiz has been compared to when the stretch your PT showed you actually works.
It’s that satisfying. Ace the quiz.
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American Express made changes to its SkyMiles credit cards in a bid to win over upset Delta customers.
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Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin apologized for failing to notify President Biden that he was hospitalized for prostate cancer.
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Tennessee and Virginia sued the NCAA over the legality of its name, image, and likeness (NIL) guidelines.
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French farmers unions said they would end their protest against the government after the two sides came to a détente.
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Donald Trump spent more than $55 million of donor money on legal fees for himself and his associates in the last year, according to new filings.
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Master the elements: A simple and addicting online infinite crafting game.
Know your surroundings: A map showing places near you that have Wikipedia pages.
Take us higher: Paramount+’s truly bizarre Super Bowl commercial, starring Sir Patrick Stewart, Drew Barrymore, and, yes, the band Creed.
Make it a true Daily Double: In response to a prompt from Jeopardy! champion James Holzhauer, fans of the iconic quiz show are posting their favorite clips on X.
Free Excel workshop: Learn everything you need to know about pivot tables and charts in Miss Excel’s free 60-minute live workshop.
Survey says: Salesforce Marketing Cloud’s report reveals insights about how marketers are experimenting with AI, building their skills, and working on trust issues. Check it out.* *A message from our sponsor.
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Picdoku: Today’s Picodku features geometry symbols, and the best part? You don’t have to remember what they mean to solve this puzzle. Play it here.
Friday puzzle
In Groundhog Day, Bill Murray is condemned to repeat the same day over…and over…and over again. So, if that happens to any of us, we should be prepared.
In today’s quiz, we’ll give you a clue, and the answer will have a word or name that repeats itself at least once.
Example: The winner of American Idol Season 11 = Phillip Phillips.
- This Polynesian island group, whose name translates to “firstborn” in the local Tahitian language, is a popular tourist destination known for its over-water bungalows and served as a military supply base for the United States in World War II.
- In 1998, Jim Carrey won the Golden Globe for best actor in a comedy for playing Fletcher Reede, a lawyer in Los Angeles, in this film.
- This song by the Mamas and the Papas was used by ESPN in 2017 to promote its football programming.
- When this casino first opened on the Las Vegas strip in 1968, it featured pink elephants you could ride and trained monkeys that roamed around the casino floor and paid guests their winnings.
- The title of William Faulkner’s allegorical 1936 novel refers to a son of King David.
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In a Seinfeld episode, it was a placeholder for sex, shoplifting, and poisoning by toxic envelopes.
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- Bora Bora
- Liar Liar
- “Monday, Monday”
- Circus Circus
- Absalom, Absalom!
- Yada Yada Yada
Word of the Day
Today’s Word of the Day is: détente, meaning “the easing of hostility or strained relations.” Thanks to Tim from Louisville, KY, for the amicable suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.
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✢ A Note From Masterworks
Investing involves risk and past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures and aggregate advisory performance at masterworks.com/cd.
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