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When it comes to presidential elections, voters’ preferences all come down to how the economy is doing, right?

Perhaps in some cases this is true. But there are other issues that increasingly preoccupy Americans’ thoughts as they head to the polling place. One of these sleeper issues is climate change, which likely influenced voters in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, according to research conducted by Matt Burgess, a scholar of environmental studies at the University of Colorado Boulder, and colleagues.

This is likely true despite most voters not listing climate change as a leading priority.

“So, if most voters − even Democrats − do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election?” Burgess writes. The connection between climate change and the economy, or the overwhelming evidence of climate change happening, could help explain this gap.

“Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat,” Burgess adds.

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Amy Lieberman

Politics + Society Editor

Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

Climate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election

Matt Burgess, University of Colorado Boulder

Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.

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