ECONOMY

IMF: It's Bad

A priest, a rabbit, and a monk walk into a bar. 

The rabbit says, "I think I'm a typo." 

Wanted to give you a bit of dad-joke joy before diving into our top story. Which is this: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) crunched the numbers and concluded we're in the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression. 

Introducing...the "Great Lockdown": 

• Global output per person will contract 4.2% this year, the IMF predicts. It shrank less than half that much during the 2008–09 financial crisis. 
• The IMF's baseline scenario for global economic growth this year: -3%. In the worst-case scenario—lockdowns extending into the second half of the year and a second wave of infections next year—GDP could fall by another 8% in 2021.
• Cumulative GDP loss over 2020 and 2021: about $9 trillion, more than the economies of Japan and Germany combined. 

Not great, Bob

It's not just the size that draws comparisons to 1929, it's this crisis's reach. Namely, all over the world. "For the first time since the Great Depression both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are in recession," the IMF writes. 

• The IMF projects diminishing income per capita in more than 170 countries.

One notable exception: Guyana, a small country perched on the northern coast of South America. Its economy is forecast to grow 53% in 2020, easily the most of any country and the only economy in the Americas expected to grow at all this year. 

• Guyana can thank offshore oil fields that may hold 8 billion barrels of black gold, which have attracted meaty investments from energy majors. 

Looking ahead...the IMF anticipates a partial global recovery in 2021. But that, too, will be shaped by the length of lockdowns and whether there's a second wave of infections. 

AVIATION

Airlines Find Emergency Exit

Yesterday, prominent U.S. air carriers came to a preliminary agreement with the Treasury Department over $25 billion in payroll assistance. That pile of cash was included in last month’s $2.2 trillion relief package. 

The Treasury said all major carriers would be covered. $5.8 billion is earmarked for American Airlines, while $3.2 billion is headed to Southwest Airlines, according to the companies. 

• The attached strings: Airlines must use the funds to prevent layoffs, and they've agreed to limitations on exec compensation and stock buybacks. 
• Airlines were hoping for support of the stringless variety, but they weren’t in much of a bargaining position.

That's because almost no one is flying—all but 5% of U.S. daily passenger demand has evaporated, forcing carriers to cut capacity as much as 80%. 

Looking ahead...the Treasury reportedly plans to start distributing the funds as early as this week.

PERSONAL FINANCE

Check Your Bank Account

There may be a deposit from the government there. If not...you can make sure your roommate’s wi-fi payment went through. 

The Internal Revenue Service started distributing “stimulus checks” to American taxpayers over the weekend. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said 80 million people are expected to have received a direct deposit by today. 

• Most Americans are doing their personal finance profs proud. According to Netspend, the company that processed almost $1 billion in relief payments over the weekend, the infusion is being spent on food, gas, pharmacies, and withdrawing cash from ATMs. 

Quick refresher: As part of the federal government’s $2.2 trillion rescue package, most adults with an adjusted gross income under $99,000 were promised a one-time check to give consumer spending a jolt. In total, about 125 million Americans are expected to receive a payment.

+ Want more? Ramit Sethi explains how COVID-19 affects your personal finances on our latest podcast episode of Business Casual. 

SPONSORED BY THE MOTLEY FOOL

Your Lighthouse in the Investing Fog

If you’re looking to invest in the stock market these days, you’d be well within your rights to feel overwhelmed, confused, and in need of some guidance.

The Motley Fool can be your lighthouse in the investing fog. You know, like how ships in the old days didn’t have phones, and they needed to navigate by—right, you get it.

The Motley Fool has been around since 1993, helping members navigate through the dot com bubble, the housing crisis, and now, market volatility due to COVID-19. They know about investing during crises, because they’ve weathered storms before.

Let the navigation begin: The past 25 times David and Tom have agreed on stocks, they’ve beat the S&P by more than 6x. And their 26th agreement just happened with this “all in buy” sign.

Members can also tune into The Fool’s daily live Q&As with their CEO and analysts for further navigation advice.

ADVERTISING

Advertisers Are Sadder Than a Sarah McLachlan Commercial

Between the election and the Tokyo Olympics, 2020 was supposed to be the year of the marketer. But as clients lock up budgets, the industry is slipping into a crisis no Peloton ad can match.

Yesterday, Publicis Groupe was the first of the big three ad holding companies to report earnings. CEO Arthur Sadoun expects an industrywide downturn much worse than 2009’s 10% hit. 

• Q1 organic revenue dropped 15% in China and 0.5% in North America, indicating “the U.S. is still only at the beginning,” Sadoun told the WSJ. However, China’s luxury and retail sectors are yawning back to life now that the country is reopening. 

With top marketing spenders like travel, food, auto, and retail taking the biggest whack, Publicis’s peers will be singing the same tune. Omnicom Group CEO John Wren told employees yesterday the company will furlough across some agencies. And last month, WPP withdrew its dividend.

Looking ahead...companies with ad budgets to spare will have to compete for the limited live events and launches remaining. 

Speaking of...

MEDIA

NBC Crashes the Quarantine Watch Party

The pandemic may have taken our bar crawls, sleepovers, and haircuts, but it can't take our remotes. NBCUniversal pushed ahead today with the soft launch of its streaming service, Peacock, to Comcast customers. 

Earlier this week, NBCUniversal announced new launch sponsors including Verizon, Molson Coors, and L'Oréal, proving that despite the downturn in the advertising industry, brands still want prime spots on hot new platforms. 

Zoom out: The coronavirus pandemic has pushed back movie launches and canceled almost all live sports. That’s a void Law & Order can fill. 

Quarantined consumers are watching more content throughout the day, with time spent streaming in the 11am–2pm range up over 40% in March, per Bloomberg. They're also spending more time with other forms of entertainment: 

• Gaming platform Twitch logged 1.3 billion hours streamed last month. 
• Quibi, the mobile-streaming platform launched last week, said viewers are watching its shortform videos consistently throughout the day.

But…after just one week of complaints, Quibi backtracked on its mobile-first shtick. Quibi says it will offer an option to watch on TV screens, possibly within the next six months. 

SPORTS

Chiefs Fans Were on the Right Side of History

The next time you’re frustrated about sports and someone says, “C’mon, it’s not a matter of life and death,” you can respond, “Actually…” 

Dr. Niraj Sehgal, who co-leads the University of California San Francisco’s COVID-19 command center, is out with this fascinating argument: Had the 49ers topped the Kansas City Chiefs in February’s Super Bowl, the city would have held a big, crowded parade that unwittingly would have boosted the spread of the coronavirus. 

• SF was one of the first cities in the U.S. to experience a coronavirus outbreak. In fact, the Super Bowl happened the same night that Sehgal was setting up the command center. The UCSF hospital's first COVID-19 patients came the next morning. 

Zoom out: Sporting events have proven to be super coronavirus-spreaders in other parts of the world. A Champions League soccer match held in Milan on Feb. 19 has been called “Game Zero” for unleashing COVID-19 on the Italian city of Bergamo.

GIVEAWAY

That Touchbar Is Real and It Is Spectacular

This section is the equivalent of us "just circling back" to remind you that we are giving away MacBook Pros to readers. 

The details: When you share the Brew today, you’ll have a chance to win a brand new MacBook Pro for you and someone who signs up because of you.

Even more detail: Each time you refer a friend, family member, or coworker to Morning Brew, you'll get a ticket entered into a raffle for one of two MacBook Pros. 1 referral = 1 ticket.

• If you win a computer, we'll select someone you referred to win one, too. 

How to start: Click the share button below to grab your unique referral link. Then, tell everyone you know that they can 1) read business news that makes you smile even during a pandemic and 2) have a chance to win a new computer.

Or copy & paste your referral link to others:
morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=303a04a9

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• President Trump said he's halting funding for the World Health Organization.
• JPMorgan's Q1 profit fell 69% from last year, mostly because it set aside $6.8 billion to protect against loan defaults. Wells Fargo painted a similar picture.
• Hank Steinbrenner, the NY Yankees general partner and co-chairperson, died at 63. 
• GSK and Sanofi are teaming up to create a coronavirus vaccine. It could be ready by the second half of 2021...earliest. 

BREW'S BETS

• Stay home. Go further. You probably have a lot of questions if you’re thinking about getting an MBA. Michigan Ross is here to help by offering GMAT/GRE waivers for eligible Online MBA applicants seeking Fall 2020 admission. Find out if you’re eligible and apply now.*
• Shop from your couch. Join Thrive Market today and save on 6,000+ best-selling items like wholesome snacks, ethical meats, clean wine, and so much more. Get an extra 25% off if you shop today.*
• Work Learn from home: Enroll in NYU Professor Scott Galloway’s two-week crash course that breaks down the winning strategies of tech behemoths like Amazon and Apple. Take your career to the next level through an online experience that's flexible with your schedule. The May course is only open to Brew readers, so sign up today.*
• New book release: No Filter, which charts the incredible rise of Instagram, is one of the most anticipated biz books of the year. Once you finish, you can listen to the author, Sarah Frier, on our podcast. 
• A poem that hits home: "First lines of emails I’ve received while quarantining." . 

^{*This is sponsored advertising content}

FROM THE CREW

Homeschool Problems

We've been gathering some of the juiciest work-from-home stories from readers, and it's like a Georgia peach in July out there. Today, we're heading back to school for some delicious awkwardness:

• "In the middle of a Zoom class, one girl thought she was on mute and answered her phone with "Sup, b****?" and the professor definitely thought she was speaking to her. She had to stay on the call and apologize."
• "During a Zoom class session for an MBA class, a classmate had his video on but seemed to believe he had stepped off-camera. He stuck his hand down the front of his gym shorts at which point our professor stopped mid-sentence and there was an extremely awkward 30 seconds of silence. I nearly fell out of my chair I was laughing so hard."

.

U.S. TRIVIA

What do Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming have in common? Hint: Look at the date.

Keep scrolling for the answer...

U.S. TRIVIA ANSWER

These states have no income tax. FYI, the deadline for filing taxes has been extended to July 15.