Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Rate-cut divergence

Two new possibilities in the global inflation fight came into sharper focus this week. First, there’s talk the European Central Bank may attempt something rather bold: An interest-rate cut in June even if the US holds fast. “It’s time to diverge,” Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras said. “The situations in the euro area and the US are completely different.” The other possibility? Brace yourself, Wall Street. If US inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve might do more than simply push back rate cuts. How about another rate hike? It’s not impossible: Robust consumption and investment as well as easing supply-chain problems have fueled strong US growth despite higher interest rates. Over in the world’s second largest economy, there’s a much grimmer economic landscape. Deflationary pressures are still a key threat to China’s stalled recovery. Globally, the International Monetary Fund predicts growth this decade will be only “marginally stronger” if inflation and debt challenges aren’t addressed. Escalating geopolitical tensions—especially Russia’s widening onslaught against Ukraine’s infrastructure and Kyiv’s attacks on Russia’s oil refineries, as well as risk of a regional war in the Middle East—specifically Iranian retaliation against Israel for the attack on its Syrian embassy—have spurred bullish activity in the oil options market.

US President Joe Biden, whose previously unqualified support for Israel’s war against Hamas hurt him at home as the Palestinian death toll mounted, said he delivered a “blunt and straightforward” message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on avoiding civilian deaths and improving conditions in Gaza, where the United Nations warns of a threat of famine. Senior Israeli officials contend progress has been made in negotiations for a Gaza cease-fire, but that drew criticism from far-right ministers who threatened to bring down the government.

Rubble and spent military ordnance littered Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, after the Israeli withdrawal. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg

Donald Trump is struggling to find a balance between anti-abortion voters who helped him win in 2016 and the much larger number of Americans who support a woman’s right to choose. The Republican said this week that states should decide abortion policy, backing away from his previous support for the national ban sought by the GOP base. His comment however came as draconian restrictions on abortion were imposed under state law in Florida and then Arizona. Trump scrambled to distance himself from an Arizona Supreme Court decision upholding an 1864 law that criminalized most abortions, but it was too late. “Donald Trump did this,” says a Biden campaign advertisement, relating the story of a Texas woman who said she almost died when she was denied medical care following a miscarriage. The ad reminded viewers that Trump’s three Supreme Court picks were instrumental in the elimination of a federal right to an abortion under Roe v. Wade. Next week promises more upheaval for the GOP frontrunner. He becomes the first former American president to face criminal trial. Jury selection in Trump’s accounting fraud and hush money prosecution is scheduled to begin in New York State Supreme Court, the first of four criminal trials he is to face. 

The US took a crucial early role in developing the semiconductor technology that underpins today’s revolution in artificial intelligence—extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Yet it’s a Dutch firm that now holds a monopoly on them and Asian manufacturers that dominate chip production. Without these $200 million EUV machines and the semiconductors they make, there’d be no AI revolution and the global economy would slow. This week’s Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary How America Dropped the Ball on Key Chip Technology details the shared problem for both Washington and Beijing, and how US company Intel says it’s about to raise the stakes.

Watch How America Dropped the Ball on Key Chip Technology

California, an epicenter of last year’s regional-bank turmoil, is at the forefront of the industry’s latest trouble spot: commercial real estate. Los Angeles and San Francisco have been hit particularly hard, with companies abandoning space amid the slow return of workers. Meanwhile for companies looking to hire in a tight labor market, manager recruits locked into super-low mortgages are shunning $250,000 job offers that require them to move. In the real estate winner column? Floridians with homes in the ritziest neighborhoods are experiencing America’s biggest increases in real estate wealth.

How do you make matzo? First, how do you spell it? We visit the only kosher-for-Passover mechanical matzo factory still running in the US. In Manhattan, the supply of soup dumplings—maybe the perfect food—is increasing exponentially. And it’s official: New York-area airports, long embarrassingly disheveled gateways, are now among the best in the nation.

When Din Tai Fung opens its doors this spring, it will radically increase the number of soup dumplings in Manhattan. Source: Din Tai Fung

• Earnings season: Wall Street banks, luxury firms and chipmakers.
• Boeing CEO to testify before Senate amid scrutiny of safety.
• Germany’s Olaf Scholz visits China, plans to meet with Xi Jinping. 
• UK unemployment and inflation; IMF and World Bank spring meetings.
• India elections begin, with Narendra Modi chasing a third term. 

Yes, that Ivy league education is probably worth it—at least if you’re talking return on investment. Otherwise, you might want to choose a state school. That’s according to a new Bloomberg News analysis that found the typical 10-year ROI of 63 top, non-Ivy private colleges is about 49% less than the Ivies. But they’re also 9% less than the most prominent state universities. 

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