On Tuesday morning, Axios published a story that got political pundits talking and Democrats reverting to their natural state of worry verging on panic. According to the report from Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson:

President Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers, and neither do many of his closest advisers, according to people familiar with the matter… The dismissiveness of the poor polling is sincere, not public spin, according to Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team.

The report from two very well-sourced reporters comes on the heels of a New York Times/Siena poll that showed Biden trailing Trump among likely voters in five of the six battleground states (you can read my analysis of this poll HERE). In response to the poll, the Biden Campaign released a statement from Geoff Garin, the campaign’s pollster:

Drawing broad conclusions about the race based on results from one poll is a mistake. The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll. These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over.

The President aggressively resists the idea that he is behind in the polls. He has cited specific polls that show him ahead, discussed the difference between polls that measure registered vs. likely voters, and raised concerns about polling accuracy because many people do not respond. It’s clear the President rides the Pollercoaster.

Every president knows their polls front and back, but Biden’s public touting of the polls is unusual. While Trump always talked and tweeted about polls, most presidents rarely debate them.

The President is annoyed at the press’s obsession with the polls and even more offended at the idea of Trump returning to the White House. That’s a very understandable and human response. Biden’s aides push back aggressively against the polls in public and private. Like their boss, the staff is frustrated by the press focusing on polls in an election with democracy at stake and with the Democrats who use the release of every new poll as an opportunity to re-convene the circular firing squad. Finally, some of the most pro-Biden online Democrats dismiss the polls outright and engage in intellectually dishonest arguments about sample sizes, crosstabs, and an anti-Biden bias in the polls.

I understand why people see and hear this stuff and then think the President and his campaign are in denial about the state of the race. However, the evidence is very clear; while the Biden Campaign may not agree with the New York Times poll, they are not in denial about this race or sleepwalking to defeat.

Confusing Spin for Strategy

Running any campaign, but especially a presidential campaign, is largely about mood management. Keep the staff happy, the volunteers fired up, the donors engaged, the press satiated, and the candidate in a good headspace. Put on a brave face in last place, and fight off complacency while winning. Much of the public discussion of the race is performative to manage those various constituencies. This is particularly true for Democrats because our base does not live in a hermetically sealed information bubble. Democrats aren’t spoon fed optimistic news by our ideological allies in the media. You could watch Fox News 24-7 for weeks and not see a single bad poll for Trump. Democrats reacted so violently to the New York Times poll because it’s in the New York Times — a publication read by nearly every politically active Democrat on the planet. Unlike Republicans, Democratic politicos tend to panic in public; we vent our anxieties on social media, and elected officials and operatives treat reporters from Politico and Axios as our own personal therapists.

Of course, the Biden folks are putting their best face forward. What do these reporters want them to say? OMG, WE ARE LOSING!!! And then crawl under the nearest table and assume the fetal position? Of course, they are confident, but that’s not the same as cockiness or denial.

Look At What the Campaign is Doing

I doubt the campaign agrees Biden is down by such large margins in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. I also doubt the Biden Campaign agrees that Trump is winning historically significant shares of young, Black, and Hispanic voters. But if we focus on how the campaign is deploying resources, it is obvious this will be an incredibly close election that could come down to a few thousand votes in the six battleground states. The Biden Campaign is raising money and spending it at a frenetic pace. They are running millions of dollars in television and digital ads monthly. According to the Biden Campaign, by the end of this month, they will have 200 offices and 500 staffers across the six battleground states polled by the NYT and North Carolina.

The time and money spent shows that they aren’t in denial about the demographic challenges. This campaign is targeting Black and Hispanic voters much earlier than previous campaigns. Last week, the campaign announced major ad buys in Black, Hispanic, and AAPI media. Finally, over the last several months, the President has highlighted his efforts to cancel student debt, fight climate change, and decriminalize marijuana — all issues of particular importance to younger voters.

I have known the people running the Biden Campaign for decades. These are very smart, experienced, data-driven political operatives. They know what they are doing. They are not readying themselves for defeat. Whether you think the latest polls are right or wrong, the operatives are making perfect moves. I am not saying Biden will win. This is a very tough election and he is facing a lot of headwinds, But if he loses,, it won’t be because of complacency or denial on the part of his campaign.

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